Australian dollar forecast
Find out about the outlook for the AUD in 2024 and the key factors driving its performance.
Key takeaways
- The Australian dollar was worth about 72 US cents in early September 2026, well above the range the 2024 bank forecasts on this page discuss.
- Interest rates and inflation are the key metrics that impact the price of the AUD.
- 43% of Australians surveyed by Finder in December 2023 expected the Australian dollar to get stronger over the following 12 months.
Australian Dollar Predictions for 2024
The forecasts below were published in late 2023 and every one of their horizons has now passed, so they are a record of what the major banks expected for 2024 rather than a current view. We have not yet published refreshed bank forecasts for the Australian dollar.
- NAB's Australian dollar forecast is predicting the AUD will trade at 0.73 USD by December 2024. Over the long-term NAB is optimistic and believes the Australian dollar will reach $0.78 by December 2025.
- ING's future FX outlook is very positive, they are predicting the AUD/USD exchange rate will be at 0.71 USD by June 2024, and 0.73 USD by December 2024. Sluggish Chinese growth and high interest rates have led to the AUD being the most "undervalued currency in the G10 space" based on their analysis.
- Westpac published their economic report in December 2023, predicting the AUD will increase modestly during the year and trade at 0.70 USD by the end of 2024.
- Commonwealth Bank think an economic recession is likely in 2024 and it could send the Australian Dollar below 0.60 USD. CBA expects the decrease in value to be short-lived as the FED will cut interest rates in the US faster than expected.
Finder survey: How many Australians think the Australian dollar will get stronger over the next 12 months?
| Response | |
|---|---|
| No | 56.67% |
| Yes | 43.33% |
Source: Finder survey by Pure Profile of 1004 Australians, December 2023
Key factors impacting the Australian dollar
There are several key factors driving the performance of the Australian dollar, the major ones include:
- RBA interest rate decisions. From a record low of 0.10% in April 2022 the Reserve Bank lifted the official cash rate to 4.35% by November 2023, cut it back to 3.60% over 2025, then raised it again in February, March and May 2026. The cash rate has been 4.35% since May 2026 and the Board left it unchanged at its meeting on 12 August 2026. Rate rises tend to increase foreign investment demand for the AUD, which helps drive the value of the Aussie dollar higher.
- Inflation. The Reserve Bank's inflation target aims to keep annual consumer price inflation between 2 and 3%. High inflation tends to drive the value of the Aussie dollar down due to reduced purchasing power.
- Economic slowdown. With rising interest rates and inflation impacting economies around the world, there's the very real threat of a global recession. This could lead to reduced demand from China and other Asian countries for Australia's key exports, pushing the value of the Australian dollar down.
- Mining. Commodities are a major driver of the Australian economy, with iron ore, coal and other commodities responsible for 67% of all exports. Increases in demand for commodities can drive the value of the AUD up, but falling prices can have a negative effect.
- Farming. Agriculture is another important driver of the Australian economy and made up 11.6% of the nation's goods and services exports in 2021-22. The impacts of climate change could affect the farming industry in the years to come, while controversy surrounding live animal exports could also affect cattle and sheep exports.
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How has the Australian dollar performed?
The Aussie dollar was on a downward trajectory for the majority of 2023. After reaching a high of 0.72 USD in late January 2023, it hit yearly lows in October before mounting a small recovery. It has since climbed back to those levels: the Reserve Bank's daily exchange rate table put the Australian dollar at US$0.7232 on 9 September 2026.
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