The RBA held the official cash rate at 3.60%. 86% of Finder's economists and experts correctly predicted the decision.
The official cash rate is:
3.60%
The RBA's next interest rate decision is on:
09 December 2025
Of the experts surveyed by Finder for December:
100% predict the cash rate will hold.
"Mixed economic signals have kept the RBA in a holding pattern. While spending remains strong, rising inflation and increasing unemployment add complexity to the decision-making process."
These graphs show movements in the official cash rate over time and changes to the market's lowest home loan rates over the same period. You can see how the market responds by raising or lowering rates broadly in line with the RBA's decisions.
How often are Finder's expert predictions correct?
The latest cash rate analysis from the experts
Finder regularly surveys 40+ economists and property experts to forecast the RBA's next cash rate decision and get insights into the future of the Australian economy. Here are the most recent cash rate predictions.
The September-quarter CPI showed inflation running hotter than expected, with both headline and trimmed mean inflation sitting at or above the upper end of the RBA’s 2–3% target range. While the labour market is cooling and household spending has softened, inflationary pressures in housing and services remain persistent. Given this, the RBA will likely wait for clearer signs that inflation is easing before considering further cuts.
It's definitely a possibility! That's what market participants think. Different forces are pulling in opposite directions, and no one is 100% certain about the course of action. And that's what my forecasts indicate: the bond yield curve models for the monthly data set on the CUT, but weekly data models and other specifications indicate a HOLD decision. The former usually forecasts more precisely, and therefore it's a CUT. But I'm not 100% certain :) My forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
My guess is that the bank will hold this month but the economy will be weaker in December. They'll also be going on holidays which could also tilt the balance towards cutting. (It's rate setting function shouldn't take a holiday any more than other essential services should, but the Bank enjoys its perks.)
The Bank’s initial response to emerging stagflation will probably be to keep rates on hold. Around the middle of next year the could be a cut in response to high unemployment. Around the end of next year, however, we may see the beginning of another tightening cycle.
I expect the RBA to hold in November. The jobs market is showing signs of softening, but with inflation edging back above 3%, the Bank will want to see clearer progress before making its next move.
The RBA will be focused on inflation and the Q3 numbers confirmed for them that they cannot ease policy too quickly. They will have noted the uptick in the unemployment rate. And if it continues and persists, they will cut again sooner. But I don't think that is the most likely outcome. Instead, the labour market will remain tight or at least balanced.
There needs to be more evidence that inflation is under control before a rate reduction ought to be considered. Although the unemployment figures lean towards a rate cut, the main focus of the RBA, inflation, has not yet been tamed.
Inflation is not under control. And governments are still spending recklessly. There's also no evidence of wide mortgage stress. There is no reason to cut.
The uptick in core inflation to 1% for Q3 and 3% annually will likely see the RBA on hold for the balance of the year, keeping the official cash rate at 3.6%, slightly above neutral. With more data we should still get one more cut in the cycle, in early 2026.
The 'materially' higher -than-expected September quarter CPI has dealt a fatal blow to hopes of a rate cut in November, and reduced (although IMHO not fatally) the chances of a rate cut in February next year.
Inflation still a bit sticky and build costs may increase with greater demand on construction thanks to the new 5% Deposit Scheme rules. Rates are now historically average, and a lot of clients are now increasing debt rather than looking to downsize. I think the RBA has now done enough.
Annual inflation to the September 2025 quarter was 3.2 per cent, up from 2.1 per cent to the June 2025 quarter. This is the highest annual inflation rate since the June 2024 quarter when annual inflation was 3.8 per cent. While the RBA was surprised by September's jump in the unemployment figures, the fact that inflation is creeping up again and clearly not in control will mean the RBA will keep rates on hold.
The cash rate will be held constant for a while, but at some stage it has to increase because funding interest rates will go up; not because of increasing inflation, but because the increasing government debt in the world and the aging population will push rates up.
The Australian economy has for some time in 2025 been close to its longer run average for inflation, GDP growth and unemployment, which suggests to me that monetary policy should already be neutral, not mildly restrictive. The September 2025 unemployment rate jumped to 4.5% and the Q2 trimmed mean inflation rate was 2.7%, which should have provided enough extra evidence for the RBA to decide to cut the cash rate by 25 basis points in November. However, trimmed mean inflation increased marginally to 3% in the 3rd quarter 2025 (which was largely expected because of the expiry of government rebates for electricity). Though the RBA Board will be concerned about the mixed messages, I expect them to cut the cash rate in recognition that the downside macroeconomic risks dominate.
The high reading for trimmed mean inflation will keep the RBA on hold in November, but will still expect higher unemployment and slower inflation to drive a cut next year.
In the twelve months leading up to the September 2025 quarter, Australia's inflation rate rose to 3.2%, up from 2.1% in the June 2025 quarter. A significant driver of this recent surge in inflation is the housing sector. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has seen a slight uptick, reaching 4.5% in September. Despite this increase, the Australian labour market remains relatively tight. Considering these economic indicators, the rising inflation coupled with a modestly increasing unemployment rate, the RBA will likely maintain the current cash rate rather than make any adjustments at this time.
With inflation coming in higher than expected, the RBA is unlikely to cut the cash rate at its November meeting. However, the larger than expected rise in the unemployment rate is putting downward pressure on the cash rate. In future meetings, the RBA will have to weigh both persistent inflation and a softening labour market when setting policy.
The Reserve Bank has shown its preference is to act only when it deems necessary, and the slight rise in core inflation points to a hold, despite the slight uptick in unemployment. Nevertheless, we feel at least one further cut is warranted in this cycle.
Rising house prices and rents, combined with population growth pushing demand, will keep trimmed mean above what is necessary to see two more rate cuts in this cycle.
At this point in the cycle focus is expected to shift to the labour market. Employment growth has slowed and the unemployment rate is on the rise while inflation pressures remain contained.
Consumer sentiment sliding, Job growth sliding, Unemployment rising and productivity falling. Inflation sitting at 2.1% which is well within the target band.
Evolving rhetoric from the RBA suggests we are approaching the end of the easing cycle. We expect the last cash rate cut will take the cash rate to 3.35% and is likely to occur in February. We consider the current cash rate of 3.6% to be relatively close to a neutral rate.
Rising unemployment risks hitting 5% while monetary policy remains tight.
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The Reserve Bank of Australia sets the official cash rate target. This is a benchmark rate that has a big impact on home loan interest rates, savings accounts and other credit products.
What is the official cash rate?
One of the Reserve Bank's primary roles is setting monetary policy for the Australian economy. This involves setting the cash rate (or to use its full name, the official cash rate target).
At a technical level, the cash rate is actually the interest rate banks pay for borrowing money from each other overnight. Banks use this to manage liquidity and issue funds as needed.
Australian banks can borrow and deposit money with the RBA at just below the current cash rate target.
How the official cash rate target affects interest rates
But for the average Australian consumer, the cash rate is really useful as a broad benchmark for the interest rates on home loans and savings accounts. A high cash rate makes borrowing money more expensive and sees home loan repayments rise.
A low cash rate makes it cheaper to borrow money. This boosts borrowing and spending.
How has the cash rate changed over time?
The Reserve Bank adjusts the official cash rate target over time in response to various economic data, including:
Inflation
The unemployment rate
Global economic factors
The cash rate stayed at the then record low of 1.50% from 2016 to 2019, when the RBA lowered it further in response to low inflation and slightly higher unemployment.
Then as the Covid-19 pandemic began to hurt the Australian economy the RBA dropped the cash rate even further. This was to make borrowing cheaper and stimulate a struggling economy. The cash rate hit the record low of 0.10% during this time.
Now, with inflation soaring the RBA has lifted the cash rate very quickly to try to slow demand and curb price rises.
How does the RBA's cash rate decisions affect your finances?
The RBA can do 3 things with the cash rate: Raise, lower or hold the cash rate at its current level.
If the RBA lifts the cash rate
When the cash rate rises, most lenders pass on the rate rise to borrowers on variable rate home loans.
If the cash rate rises by 25 basis points, then most borrowers will see 25 basis points added to their home loan's interest rate.
If you have a fixed rate home loan nothing changes. Your rate is locked in for the duration of the fixed period.
When the RBA lowers the cash rate, most lenders pass on some if not all of the cut to borrowers on variable rate home loans.
Banks also lower rates on savings accounts and other products.
If you have a home loan, it's a good idea to check if your lender has actually passed on the rate cut to you. If it hasn't, you may need to switch.
If the RBA holds the cash rate
A hold decision means the cash rate isn't changing this month. This means that your home loan or savings account rate likely won't change. You don't really have to do anything.
But banks and lenders change interest rates all the time for various reasons even if the RBA doesn't move the cash rate.
Calculate how much a cash rate cut will impact your home loan repayments
Enter your loan amount, current interest rate and the latest cash rate change to quickly estimate how much your monthly repayments will change, and what your new repayment will be.
Example: how changes to the cash rate can change your loan repayments
You have a $600,000 home loan with a variable interest rate of 6.00%. It's a 30-year loan term with principal-and-interest repayments.
Your monthly repayments are $3,598.
⬆️ If the cash rate rises by 25 basis points your interest rate would increase to 6.25%. Your monthly repayments would now be $3,695. This would cost you an extra $97 a month or $1,164 a year.
⬇️ If the cash rate decreases by 25 basis points your interest rate would fall to 5.75%. Your monthly repayments would now be $3,502. This would save you $96 a month or $1,152 a year.
More questions about the RBA cash rate
Lenders are free to change interest rates on their products whenever they want. The cash rate is a big influence on rates, but there are many other factors. This includes a lender's own funding costs, the amount of deposits the lender has and how competitive it wants to be to attract new customers.
The RBA changes the cash rate target based on a range of factors including inflation, the performance of the Aussie dollar, unemployment, the housing market, and Australia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
For example, if inflation rises above the target rate it means that Australians are spending their money too freely and prices are increasing too rapidly. But if the RBA raises interest rates to make it more expensive to borrow money, the economy will settle and price increases will slow down.
Conversely, the RBA will drop interest rates if inflation is too low and the economy is stagnating, encouraging more Australians to spend more money and stimulate economic growth.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is the country's central bank. The RBA's monetary policy has three key objectives which are set out in the Reserve Bank Act 1959:
The stability of the currency of Australia.
The maintenance of full employment in Australia.
The economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia.
Setting the official cash rate is one of the bank's key tools to influence monetary policy, inflation and the broader Australian economy. The bank's board meets on the first Tuesday of every month except January to set the cash rate. The RBA will either cut, raise or hold the cash rate.
The RBA's board of governors meets 8 times a year, in February, March, May, June, August, September, November and December. It is here that the board makes a decision on the official cash rate target.
The board used to meet 11 times a year, on every first Tuesday of the month apart from January. It lessened the number of times it meets to provide more time for change between meetings.
However, the RBA can alter the cash rate at any time outside of the meetings. This is rare, but can happen. In March 2020, in response to the onset of the COVID pandemic, the bank cut the cash rate twice. Once at the scheduled meeting and then again mid-month at a special emergency meeting.
Check out more RBA news and Finder's RBA survey press releases
It was almost certain the RBA would hold the cash rate next week, until the unemployment figures came out. Now, the latest inflation data has given us a clearer indication.
Richard Whitten is Finder’s Senior Money Editor, with over eight years of experience in home loans, property, credit cards and personal finance. His insights appear in top media outlets like Yahoo Finance, Money Magazine, and the Herald Sun, and he frequently offers expert commentary on television and radio, helping Australians navigate mortgages and property ownership. Richard started his career in education and textbook publishing in South Korea. He holds multiple industry certifications, including a Certificate IV in Mortgage Broking (RG 206) and Tier 1 and Tier 2 certifications (RG 146), as well as a Bachelor of Education from the University of Sydney and a Graduate Certificate in Communications from Deakin University.
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What do you think will be the next move for RBA on cash rate and when?
Thank you!
JonathanJune 11, 2017
Hi Rob!
Thanks for the comment.
As of the moment, most of resident rate experts predict that rates will be the same. The cash rate target is released on the first Tuesday of every month except January.
Thanks Jonathan, I meant in the longer term, 6-12 months.
JonathanJune 11, 2017
Hi Rob!
We appreciate your follow-up.
Currently, there are multiple factors that need to be considered and due to the volatility of these factors, it is a bit hard to conclude whether they’ll leave the rates unchanged for the next few months or not.
If you have further inquiries, you may contact:
Media and Communications
Secretary’s Department
Reserve Bank of Australia
SYDNEY
Phone: +61 2 9551 9720
Fax: +61 2 9551 8033
Email: rbainfo@rba.gov.au
Hope this helps.
Cheers,
Jonathan
JulieSeptember 1, 2016
When do you think the RBA will start raising rates?
JodieSeptember 7, 2016
Hi Julie,
Thank you for contacting finder.com.au we are a financial comparison website and general information service.
It is hard to predict the movement of the cash rate as it is based on a multitude of factors that are continually changing however 7 out of the 38 experts we surveyed in our latest RBA survey for September 2016 said they predict it will start going up in July 2017 or beyond.
Regards
Jodie
EricFebruary 25, 2016
Hi Belinda
Appreciate if you would also send me informations regarding findings of monthly RBA survey.
Regards
Eric
BelindaFebruary 26, 2016
Hi Eric,
Thanks for getting in touch.
On this page, you can view the RBA Cash Rate Target Announcements for each month from February 2015 until February 2016. You can also view the commentary of our resident rate experts in the lead up to each Board meeting which occurs on the first Tuesday of every month (except January).
Please feel free to sign up to receive our detailed RBA cash rate updates by completing the form provided above.
Regards,
Belinda
SyedDecember 8, 2015
Hi,
My new house is ready now and wondering what is the best time to sell, should I put my house in the market now or January or wait for the February. I am not committed any where so I can wait.
Your advise needed.
Thanks
BelindaDecember 9, 2015
Hi Syed,
Thanks for your enquiry.
The best time to sell your property relies on plenty of other factors that you need to consider before selling your house. Our guide to find out when really is the best time of year to sell your house might be handy for you.
hello.
i wonder if i could receive some information regarding not only the latest current economic situation, but also cash rate movements over the year.
BelindaAugust 17, 2015
Hi Dongho,
Thanks for your enquiry.
Above on this page you can view the ‘Reserve Bank monthly announcements’ to read about the cash rate movements and monetary policy decisions that have occurred over the course of this year. You can also sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates by filling in the form provided above.
In regards to the current economic situation, finder.com.au is an online comparative website and we can’t comment on the activity of the broader Australian economy.
A rate cut appears imminent, and not just one, according to a new poll from Finder.
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What do you think will be the next move for RBA on cash rate and when?
Thank you!
Hi Rob!
Thanks for the comment.
As of the moment, most of resident rate experts predict that rates will be the same. The cash rate target is released on the first Tuesday of every month except January.
You can follow the updated RBA forecast through our website.
Hope this helps.
Cheers,
Jonathan
Thanks Jonathan, I meant in the longer term, 6-12 months.
Hi Rob!
We appreciate your follow-up.
Currently, there are multiple factors that need to be considered and due to the volatility of these factors, it is a bit hard to conclude whether they’ll leave the rates unchanged for the next few months or not.
If you have further inquiries, you may contact:
Media and Communications
Secretary’s Department
Reserve Bank of Australia
SYDNEY
Phone: +61 2 9551 9720
Fax: +61 2 9551 8033
Email: rbainfo@rba.gov.au
Hope this helps.
Cheers,
Jonathan
When do you think the RBA will start raising rates?
Hi Julie,
Thank you for contacting finder.com.au we are a financial comparison website and general information service.
It is hard to predict the movement of the cash rate as it is based on a multitude of factors that are continually changing however 7 out of the 38 experts we surveyed in our latest RBA survey for September 2016 said they predict it will start going up in July 2017 or beyond.
Regards
Jodie
Hi Belinda
Appreciate if you would also send me informations regarding findings of monthly RBA survey.
Regards
Eric
Hi Eric,
Thanks for getting in touch.
On this page, you can view the RBA Cash Rate Target Announcements for each month from February 2015 until February 2016. You can also view the commentary of our resident rate experts in the lead up to each Board meeting which occurs on the first Tuesday of every month (except January).
Please feel free to sign up to receive our detailed RBA cash rate updates by completing the form provided above.
Regards,
Belinda
Hi,
My new house is ready now and wondering what is the best time to sell, should I put my house in the market now or January or wait for the February. I am not committed any where so I can wait.
Your advise needed.
Thanks
Hi Syed,
Thanks for your enquiry.
The best time to sell your property relies on plenty of other factors that you need to consider before selling your house. Our guide to find out when really is the best time of year to sell your house might be handy for you.
You can also refer to a guide on everything you need to know before you sell your house on this page. You can also speak to a real estate agent for assistance.
I hope this helps.
All the best,
Belinda
hello.
i wonder if i could receive some information regarding not only the latest current economic situation, but also cash rate movements over the year.
Hi Dongho,
Thanks for your enquiry.
Above on this page you can view the ‘Reserve Bank monthly announcements’ to read about the cash rate movements and monetary policy decisions that have occurred over the course of this year. You can also sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates by filling in the form provided above.
In regards to the current economic situation, finder.com.au is an online comparative website and we can’t comment on the activity of the broader Australian economy.
Thanks,
Belinda