RBA Cash Rate

Your destination for RBA news, expert forecasts and more

1.50%

Cash rate hold

at 1.50% on Tuesday 5 March 2019

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets the official cash rate target on the first Tuesday of every month except January. Below are expert forecasts from the Finder Reserve Bank Survey™ of some of Australia's brightest minds in economics and property. You can also learn more about the RBA and how its decisions influence the interest rates banks charge, and learn about the best strategies for home owners and investors when there's a rate cut, hold or rise decision.

100% of the experts in our survey predict the cash rate to hold.

100%of our resident rate experts

correctly predicted the rate to hold at 1.50% on Tuesday 5 February 2019 View forecasts →

Next meeting: 2:30pm 5th February 2019

What our experts think the next RBA move will be

As of February 2019 40% of the experts in our panel think the next RBA rate move will be an increase. 60% now anticipate a rate cut.

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Our resident rate experts

+ Open all commentary

Find out what each of our experts predicts for next month and their detailed forecast explanations

Janu Chan

+ Read Janu's full forecast

December

No change

February

No change

There continues to be strength in the labour market. However, the downside risks for the global economy has increased. The Australian economy is also not growing as strongly as previously thought. The balance of these risks suggests the RBA could tone down its stance of the next move being up but to remain on hold for some time. However, not likely to the extent that the RBA will be ready to lower rates.

Stephen Koukoulas

+ Read Stephen's full forecast

December

No change

February

No change

It will acknowledge the economy is weaker than when it last met and will signal a change in bias towards an easing. It may wait a month or two before acting on that bias.

Bill Evans

+ Read Bill's full forecast

December

N/A

February

No change

N/A

Andrew Wilson

+ Read Andrew's full forecast

December

No change

February

No change

Although recent data is clearly increasing the chances of a near-term cut in offical rates, recent statements by the RBA continue to indicate an ongoing conservative stance on rate settings. This however is likely to change if GDP data to be released on March 6 is again disappointing. In those circumstances the RBA will be motivated to cut rates - particularly prior to the onset of a likely lengthy federal election campaign.

Leanne Pilkington

+ Read Leanne's full forecast

December

No change

February

No change

Some economists now believe the next official rate movement will be down instead of up. The Reserve Bank will need firm justification as a move either way will be heavily scrutinised. We don’t see any justification to adjust rates at this time.

John Hewson

+ Read John's full forecast

December

No change

February

No change

Data uncertainty and concern economy is slowing.

Michael Yardney

+ Read Michael's full forecast

December

No change

February

No change

The jobs growth figures for December will give the RBA comfort at a time of slower local economic growth and difficult world economic circumstances. With no wages growth and our challenging property markets and the real likelihood of further falls in property values especially in Sydney and Melbourne, the RBA will now have to seriously consider the option of lowering rates this year

Jacqueline Dearle

+ Read Jacqueline's full forecast

December

N/A

February

No change

As wages continue to flat line and spending appears to be fuelled by a mix of credit and savings, consumers may be entering 2019 with a slightly pessimistic view. Continued low inflation, that’s sitting below Governor Lowe’s target; and the softening property market coupled with the tightened lending environment, only adds to disappointing Australian GDP/economic and global concerns stemming from Trump’s trade war with China. The upcoming federal election also adds a feeling of stasis to lack lustre economic data. In February, a myriad of signposts continue to suggest rates remaining on hold but down the track the next move in the cash rate could well be downward. However this could impact on the Aussie dollar, giving the RBA a lot of big issues to consider as the New Year kicks off.

Shane Oliver

+ Read Shane's full forecast

December

No change

February

No change

While economic data has generally been soft since the last Board meeting in December its unlikely to have been weak enough yet to prompt the RBA to cut rates, particularly given that its bias has still been to raise rates.

Alison Booth

+ Read Alison's full forecast

December

No change

February

No change

The fundamentals have not yet altered sufficiently to warrant to change.

John Caelli

+ Read John's full forecast

December

N/A

February

No change

Given low unemployment and wages are starting to rise, the Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut rates in the near term. Likewise, with house prices continuing to fall, tightening credit, and CPI below the target band, a rise in the cash rate is also unlikely. It’s wait and see for now.

Peter Haller

+ Read Paul's full forecast

December

No change

February

No change

Economic conditions have not materially changed since the previous RBA meeting in December and there is no basis for a change at this time.

Tim Nelson

+ Read Tim's full forecast

December

No change

February

No change

There is no strong case for an adjustment of monetary policy.

Peter Boehm

+ Read Peter's full forecast

December

N/A

February

No change

No reason to move rates at this stage.

Christine Williams

+ Read Christine's full forecast

December

No change

February

No change

The economy is not as strong as expected. Also I believe the RBA is waiting for Royal Commission Report to be released.

Ben Udy

+ Read Ben's full forecast

December

N/A

February

No change

The housing downturn is becoming more severe and will weigh on the economy over 2019. But given the labour market remains in good shape for now, we suspect the RBA will remain on hold for the time being.

Trent Wiltshire

+ Read Tim's full forecast

December

No change

February

No change

The RBA is very reluctant to cut rates. Despite some weak economic data since the December meeting the RBA will maintain a fairly optimistic outlook for the economy.

Nerida Conisbee

+ Read Nerida's full forecast

December

No change

February

No change

Economic data coming out is still too mixed to make a decision to move rates. While CPI remains low, and GDP growth in September was lower than expected, unemployment is now at just 5%. In Sydney, it is at its lowest rate since 1974.

Noel Whittaker

+ Read Noel's full forecast

December

No change

February

No change

There is no way they will increase them with the housing market the way it is – and I can't see them reducing them.

Tim Reardon

+ Read Tim's full forecast

December

No change

February

No change

GDP remains solid. Unemployment low and no evidence of inflationary pressure.

Richard Holden

+ Read Richard's full forecast

December

No change

February

No change

No chance they raise given housing and inflation.

Michael Blythe

+ Read Michael's full forecast

December

N/A

February

No change

Reasonable economic backdrop says next move is probably up. But low inflation means no hurry to act.

Michael Witts

+ Read Michael's full forecast

December

No change

February

No change

Despite the increased market talk about the prospect of an easier stance from the RBA, if this scenario is to emerge it is likely to be around mid year. Underlying economic data remains positive for the time being.

Malcolm Wood

+ Read Malcolm's full forecast

December

No change

February

No change

Underlying inflation is below the low end of the RBA's target band and underlying economic momentum appears to be deteriorating

Peter Gilmore

+ Read Peter's full forecast

December

No change

February

No change

Growth is still likely to be above trend.

Mark Crosby

+ Read Mark's full forecast

December

No change

February

No change

While the international situation is deteriorating, there is no reason to move rates at the February meeting.

Matthew Peter

+ Read Matthew's full forecast

December

No change

February

No change

The market is now pricing the next move of the RBA to be a 0.25% cut sometime in early 2020 as China is slows and the housing market continues to correct. These headwinds are yet to derail the economy, as shown by the strong December labour market data. The RBA will stay on hold until 2020, but failing a crash is China and the housing market, the next move in rates will be up.

Mark Brimble

+ Read Mark's full forecast

December

No change

February

No change

There is little net direction from indicators, with an overall bias to more support being needed given the out of cycle increases of rates by institutions.

Garry Shilson Josling
May
N/A
June
N/A
The economy is doing enough to allow the RBA to stay on the fence, and there are hints that inflation is bottoming out.
Jonathan Chancellor
November
No change
December
No change
The bank will now see how the new year unfolds. There is no immediate reason to do anything just yet.
Nicholas Gruen
November
No change
December
No change
They won't cut, though there's a case they should. They'd rather raise, but they've not telegraphed it.
Jordan Eliseo
November
No change
December
No change
Despite the heightened concern regarding falling house prices and the knock on effect it will have across the economy, the RBA will hold into the first half of 2019 at the latest. Actual economic data is still relatively strong, though we expect the economy will hit a rougher patch next year, with the RBA eventually trimming rates toward 1%.
Geordan Murray
November
No change
December
No change
There is still insufficient evidence of inflationary pressures to justify a rate hike. Declining home prices in Sydney and Melbourne, particularly given the magnitude of the falls, would ordinarily trigger calls to cut rates. This time around the RBA is not likely to be compelled to change policy settings based on home prices. The recalibration of home prices is due to homeowners being forced to deleverage due to both APRA's interventions in the mortgage market and the credit squeeze initiated by the banks.
Clement Allan Tisdell
November
No change
December
No change
No good reason to alter. Any rise in interest rates is problematic given the high level of indebtedness of Australian households.
Jonathan Chancellor
November
No change
December
No change
The bank will now see how the new year unfolds. There is no immediate reason to do anything just yet.
Alan Oster
November
No change
December
No change
Wages still sluggish and consumer nervous.
Alex Joiner
November
No change
December
No change
The RBA have become marginally more confident in its assessment of the economy recently however these expectations are still some way off in being observed in the economy - this again supports the assertion that interst rate hikes are some way off yet.
Tim Moore
November
N/A
December
No change
The RBA appears to be comfortable with current monetary policy setting, with the next move more likely to be up than down. The RBA is likely to wait for more evidence that wages growth is rising before increasing interest rates.
Saul Eslake
November
No change
December
No change
Although the RBA remains optimistic on the outlook for economic growth and unemployment, it still sees inflation returning only 'gradually' to the bottom of its 2-3% inflation target. And some of its recent commentary appears to indicate slightly greater near-term concerns with regard to the possible consequences of declining property prices and greater risk aversion on the part of lenders. All of this suggests that an increase in rates is still some way off.
Marcel Thieliant
November
No change
December
No change
Brian Parker
October
No change
November
No change
Enough downside risks to the economic outlook and to inflation to keep RBA on hold.
Mathew Tiller
October
No change
November
No change
There was no discernible change in domestic economic indicators over the past month, ensuring that the RBA will hold the cash rate steady in November. A number of global economic developments may yet have an impact on the outlook for the Australian economy. That’s said, there is little chance of a change in the official cash rate in the short term, especially given the ongoing soft inflation numbers and the slowdown in the housing market; due to higher interest rates and tighter lending restrictions by the banks.
Richard Robinson
September
No change
October
No change
Inflation and wages low. No inflationary pressures.
Paul Dales
September
No change
October
No change
The unemployment rate is still too high and inflation is still too low to warrant higher interest rates. What's more, the Royal Commission, the possibility of Labor government and the US-China trade war are extra reasons not to rock the boat.
Paul Bloxham
August
N/A
September
No change
Inflation is still below the target band.
Andrew Armstrong
June
N/A
July
No change
No material change in economic conditions from prior period.
Jo Horton
July
N/A
August
No change
Economic growth is solid, business conditions are elevated and jobs growth is strong. There are risks to the global economy, including trade concerns and the domestic economy, including housing. There are downside risks emanating from a tightening in lending standards and recent upward pressure on wholesale funding costs, as recently highlighted by the RBA. This suggests the RBA will leave interest rates on hold for an extended period.
Shane Garrett
July
No change
August
No change
Australia's economy is creating healthy volumes of new jobs, although the majority of these are part time. Inflation and wage pressures are under control, while dwelling prices have softened in both Sydney and Melbourne. This is not the time for interest rates to rise. The likelihood that the next move will be downward is growing.
Kishti Sen
June
No change
July
No change
I don't think the interest rates will fall further because: the Reserve Bank is keen to limit the amplitude of the residential cycle amid concerns about household debt and financial stability risks. Hence, it would not want to reignite the housing boom. A lower cash rate will reduce the dollar but it will have little effect on investment. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is on a tightening phase and rate rises in the United States will narrow the interest rate differential with Australia and put downward pressure on the A$. The Reserve Bank is also concerned that the more they reduce rates now, the sooner they will have to raise interest rates.I therefore expect the cash rate to stay at 1.5% over calendar year 2017 and 2018.
Chris Schade
March
No change
April
No change
With wages growth subdued and inflation well contained; there is no need for the RBA to rush to raise rates. We would not be surprised to see the RBA on hold for much, if not all of CY 2018.
Nathan McMullen
February
N/A
March
No change
Inflation within tolerance.
Scott Morgan
February
N/A
March
No change
Economic data does not yet support a shift.
Jessica Darnbrough
December
No change
February
No change
The domestic economy is tracking along quite well at the moment, giving the RBA no real reason to change their current monetary policy setting. Furthermore, given that the latest inflation data came in slightly below the RBA's target band range, I would be surprised to see the Board move rates either up or down at the present time.
Craig James
August
N/A
September
No change
Interest rates are at a level that will gradually see inflation rise to within the 2-3% target zone.
Robert Montgomery
November
N/A
December
No change
There has been little change in economic indicators, so the cash rate will continue to remain on hold.
Darryl Gobbett
November
N/A
December
No change
RBA comments suggest even more uncertainty about the inflation forecasts, when falling wages growth will stabilise and the very high and rising levels of household debt, which might justify ending the very low cash rate, but this being offset by the concerns at what a rise may do to the $A and household consumption. So hold off.
Nicki Hutley
November
N/A
December
No change
Modest demand and inflation outcomes present no risk or need to raise rates.
Peter Munckton
August
No change
September
No change
Interest rates are at the correct level.
Savanth Sebastian
July
No change
August
No change
Inflation remains well contained. RBA would be concerned about the lift in the Aussie dollar. Focus will be on how economy tracks over the next few months.
Brendan Rynne
June
N/A
July
No change
Continuation of excess capacity in the labour market, and the maintenance of inflation below RBA target band.
Glen Hawke
June
N/A
July
No change
The current economic data is inconclusive of a need for a shift.

Steven Milch
June
No change
July
No change
Labour market strengthening balances against sub target inflation. Little case to ease yet too early to tighten.

Scott Haslem
June
N/A
July
No change
N/A
Melissa Browne
May
N/A
June
N/A
I don't believe there's a case to cut rates at present and certainly no reason to move them upwards.
Warren Hogan
May
N/A
June
N/A
The Reserve Bank has said that they aren't going to be doing anything with the cash rate. They are sitting on their hands. I don't think they will do anything for six months, however things can change.
Scott Pape
May
N/A
June
N/A
The cuts are coming… just not this month.
David Bassanese
May
N/A
June
N/A
Annual underlying inflation has been confirmed as running 0.5% lower than the RBA expected 6 months ago.

Chris Caton
May
N/A
June
N/A
There's another cut out there, and July can't be ruled out, but the RBA would probably prefer to wait for more evidence on inflation.
Paul Ryan
May
N/A
June
N/A
I don't see any reason why the Reserve Bank will vary the position they have held over the past 12 months. I think there would be a level of concern about lenders moving rates outside their own decision so it might be best to keep the cash rate as is.

Check out finder's RBA survey press releases

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History of the Reserve Bank of Australia official Cash Rate

The graph above shows the movement in the official cash rate target. A lower cash rate reduces the cost of borrowing money so more people are encouraged to borrow - stimulating the economy. Higher interest rates tend to encourage spending. This is how a rise or fall in rates affects the level of supply and demand and therefore the level of inflation - which the RBA wants to keep in the target range of 2%-3%.

How the cash rate can impact your finances

See how the cash rate changes can affect your savings, term deposits, home loans and what you can do about it.

If the rate rises

Find an account which offers the same features and fees but with a better rate.

If the rate gets cut

Consider comparing a competitive term deposit rate so your interest earnings don't suffer.

If the rate holds

Carry out a quick comparison to make sure you're getting the best return on your money, see what promotions banks are offering.

If the rate rises

Ask your lender for a rate discount so that if rates do rise you won't be worse off, or alternatively, compare other variable or even fixed rate home loans to find a better deal.

If the rate gets cut

See how your lender responds to the cut. If they don't pass on the full rate cut, ask for a rate discount, and if you're still not happy start comparing what other deals are in the market. Some lenders have been known to pass on more than the official rate cut after an RBA announcement!

If the rate holds

Compare other variable rate home loans to make sure you're still getting the best deal. If rates are tipped to rise in the near future you may also want to compare fixed rates.

If the rate rises

Your rate won't rise as you locked it in, so you can relax a little. If your fixed rate is soon to end, start comparing what deals are being offered so you don't find yourself scrambling to lock in another rate.

If the rate gets cut

If you feel your home loan is no longer competitive, you might want to obtain a quote from your lender to find out possible exit costs. If this figure is reasonable, you might want to consider comparing variable home loans. Use our switching costs calculator to see if you'd save.

If the rate holds

Because your rate is fixed for an agreed period of time, a decision by the RBA to hold won't have as much of an effect on you depending on how long you still have to go in your fixed term. As mentioned above, you might still want to monitor the other deals in the market to keep informed.

If the rate rises

If rates rise, savings accounts rates could be increased as well. If this happens, you might want to compare the rates of high interest savings accounts. Remember that most term deposits have interest penalties if you withdraw your funds early, so keep this in mind.

If the rate gets cut

Your rate won't change because it's locked in, but if you're nearing the end of your term start comparing both high interest savings accounts and term deposits to find a good deal.

If the rate holds

Compare accounts and ensure you're aware of what's being offered in the market.

RBA news and announcements

HSBC: The Australian dollar can expect further declines

Analysts are predicting a post-crisis low of AUD/USD at 66 cents by the end of the year. Read more…

The RBA continues to hold the cash rate, but anticipation of another cut mounts

The cash rate remains at 1.50% for now, but with property prices falling, the direction and timing of the next move have never been so uncertain. Read more…

RBA holds official cash rate at December 2018 meeting

The Reserve Bank has again left the official cash rate on hold at 1.50%. Read more…

Reserve Bank leaves official cash rate on hold at Melbourne Cup Day meeting

In spite of the hold, home owners are still feeling the pinch of out-of-cycle rate moves by lenders. Read more…

The RBA once again holds the cash rate at 1.50% in October

The Reserve Bank has held the cash rate at its current position for an unprecedented 25 decisions in a row. Read more…

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46 Responses

octoJune 18, 2018

how long can AUD interest rate remain Low…..?

how soon will the AUD follow the US FED Rate Hike…….?

thank you

Reply
- finder Customer Care
  
  NikkiJune 20, 2018Staff
  
  Hi Octo!
  
  Thanks for getting in touch!
  
  To know more information on your questions, you can fill in your email address in the box provided and you’ll be updated on RBA’s decisions on the official cash rate target.
  
  While we provide you with general information, please know that we don’t stand as a representation for RBA or any company featured on our site.
  
  Hope that clarifies!
  
  Cheers,
  Nikki
  
  Reply
TaneeshaMay 24, 2018

Do you think the cash rate will stay the same at the June RBA meeting?

Reply
- finder Customer Care
  
  JoshuaMay 24, 2018Staff
  
  Hi Taneesha,
  
  Thanks for getting in touch with finder. I hope all is well for you. :)
  
  Unfortunately, we are not in the best place to make a prediction. However, you might get an idea whether the RBA cash rate will rise or fall by looking at the factors that affect it. These factors may include:
  
  – Household debt
  – Inflation
  – Wage growth
  – Consumer Confidence Index
  – Unemployment
  
  I hope this helps. Should you have further questions, please don’t hesitate to reach us out again.
  
  Have a wonderful day!
  
  Cheers,
  Joshua
  
  Reply
BrookMay 5, 2018

What do you think that how the international economic condition influence the cash rate?

Reply
- finder Customer Care
  
  JeniMay 6, 2018Staff
  
  Hi Brook,
  
  Thank you for getting in touch with finder.
  
  This is nice question. Domestic financial conditions remain expansionary. There has been some tightening in short-term
  money markets, which has flowed through to a small increase in funding costs for a range of financial institutions and businesses. However, borrowing rates remain low for households and businesses. Growth in housing credit has eased since mid last year, particularly for credit extended to investors, while growth in business debt has remained moderate. The Australian dollar remains within its narrow range of the past two years. Financial market prices suggest that the cash rate is expected to remain unchanged this year and to increase around mid 2019. If you are eager to learn more about the domestic financial condition according to RBA, please check out this link.
  
  I hope this helps.
  
  Have a great day!
  
  Cheers,
  Jeni
  
  Reply
RobJune 11, 2017

What do you think will be the next move for RBA on cash rate and when?

Thank you!

Reply
- JonathanJune 11, 2017
  
  Hi Rob!
  
  Thanks for the comment.
  
  As of the moment, most of resident rate experts predict that rates will be the same. The cash rate target is released on the first Tuesday of every month except January.
  
  You can follow the updated forecast right here.
  
  Hope this helps.
  
  Cheers,
  Jonathan
  
  Reply
- RobJune 11, 2017
  
  Thanks Jonathan, I meant in the longer term, 6-12 months.
  
  Reply
- JonathanJune 11, 2017
  
  Hi Rob!
  
  We appreciate your follow-up.
  
  Currently, there are multiple factors that need to be considered and due to the volatility of these factors, it is a bit hard to conclude whether they’ll leave the rates unchanged for the next few months or not.
  
  If you have further inquiries, you may contact:
  
  Media and Communications
  Secretary’s Department
  Reserve Bank of Australia
  SYDNEY
  Phone: +61 2 9551 9720
  Fax: +61 2 9551 8033
  Email: rbainfo@rba.gov.au
  
  Hope this helps.
  
  Cheers,
  Jonathan
  
  Reply
JulieSeptember 1, 2016

When do you think the RBA will start raising rates?

Reply
- JodieSeptember 7, 2016
  
  Hi Julie,
  
  Thank you for contacting finder.com.au we are a financial comparison website and general information service.
  
  It is hard to predict the movement of the cash rate as it is based on a multitude of factors that are continually changing however 7 out of the 38 experts we surveyed in our latest RBA survey for September 2016 said they predict it will start going up in July 2017 or beyond.
  
  Regards
  Jodie
  
  Reply
EricFebruary 25, 2016

Hi Belinda

Appreciate if you would also send me informations regarding findings of monthly RBA survey.

Regards
Eric

Reply
- finder Customer Care
  
  BelindaFebruary 26, 2016Staff
  
  Hi Eric,
  
  Thanks for getting in touch.
  
  On this page, you can view the RBA Cash Rate Target Announcements for each month from February 2015 until February 2016. You can also view the commentary of our resident rate experts in the lead up to each Board meeting which occurs on the first Tuesday of every month (except January).
  
  Please feel free to sign up to receive our detailed RBA cash rate updates by completing the form provided above.
  
  Regards,
  Belinda
  
  Reply
SyedDecember 8, 2015

Hi,
My new house is ready now and wondering what is the best time to sell, should I put my house in the market now or January or wait for the February. I am not committed any where so I can wait.

Your advise needed.

Thanks

Reply
- finder Customer Care
  
  BelindaDecember 9, 2015Staff
  
  Hi Syed,
  
  Thanks for your enquiry.
  
  As finder.com.au is an online comparison service so we are not licensed to give you personal advice regarding the best time to sell your property.
  
  You can read our guide here about considerations when selling your house.
  
  All the best,
  Belinda
  
  Reply
loooooolAugust 16, 2015

hello.
i wonder if i could receive some information regarding not only the latest current economic situation, but also cash rate movements over the year.

Reply
- finder Customer Care
  
  BelindaAugust 17, 2015Staff
  
  Hi Dongho,
  
  Thanks for your enquiry.
  
  Above on this page you can view the ‘Reserve Bank monthly announcements’ to read about the cash rate movements and monetary policy decisions that have occurred over the course of this year. You can also sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates by filling in the form provided above.
  
  In regards to the current economic situation, finder.com.au is an online comparative website and we can’t comment on the activity of the broader Australian economy.
  
  Thanks,
  Belinda
  
  Reply
OliJuly 17, 2015

Can you please send through the information on the RBA via email?
I’m doing a school Economic assignment on the RBA and financial markets

Reply
- finder Customer Care
  
  BelindaJuly 17, 2015Staff
  
  Hi Oli,
  
  Thanks for your enquiry.
  
  I’ve emailed you with some information regarding the findings from our monthly RBA survey.
  
  Please note that on this page you can sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates.
  
  Thanks,
  Belinda
  
  Reply
yazminJuly 7, 2015

Hi,

I was just wondering if I could have information regarding how interests rates will unfold over the next year. In particular, if the current interest rates will be appropriate for the economic conditions in Australia.

Thank you
Yazmin

Reply
- finder Customer Care
  
  BelindaJuly 8, 2015Staff
  
  Hi Yazmin,
  
  Thanks for your enquiry.
  
  Firstly, I’d like to point out that finder.com.au is an online comparison and general information service so we’re not in a position to forecast interest rates.
  
  However, on this page you can sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates which you might find useful.
  
  Thanks,
  Belinda
  
  Reply

RBA Cash Rate

Your destination for RBA news, expert forecasts and more

1.50%

Cash rate hold

100%of our resident rate experts

Next meeting: 2:30pm 5th February 2019

What our experts think the next RBA move will be

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