RBA Cash Rate

Expert analysis on the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate decisions

hold

0.75%

Cash rate hold

The RBA held the cash rate at 0.75% on 5 Nov 2019

Finder surveys over 40 economists and property experts every month to evaluate the future of the RBA's cash rate decision. Experts also provide commentary on the current state of the property market and the Australian economy and their predictions for the cash rate's future. This page contains recent cash rate analysis and predictions for the next rate decision. We update the page with new forecasts at the end of the month and again on the first Tuesday of the month, when the board of the Reserve Bank meets to make its decision.

Skip ahead to read the latest analysis, see how the cash rate has changed over time and learn more about how the cash rate affects you.

100%of our resident rate experts

correctly predicted the cash rate to hold at 0.75% on Tuesday 5 November 2019 View forecasts →

Next meeting: 2:30pm 3 December 2019

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The latest cash rate analysis from the experts

+ Open all commentary

Here are the most recent cash rate predictions and commentary from the experts in our panel.

October

Cut

November

Hold

We think the RBA will next cut in February 2020 with some risk they will move sooner (in December 2019).

October

Cut

November

Hold

RBA likely to take wait and see approach following 3 cuts in 5 months with concerns weaker sentiment may be offsetting stimulatory effect encouraging saving not spending. Latest CPI data neutral for another short-term cut and jobless rate lower a positive. RBA indicates easing to continue - but now early 2020.

Leanne Pilkington
October

Cut

November

Hold

It was both interesting and comforting to hear the RBA governor effectively rule out the possibility of negative interest rates in Australia. Key economic indicators remain subdued and the three cuts this year have not yet had a widespread impact, though cheaper finance has certainly helped fuel demand in the real estate market. We think the RBA will hold for now and leave the door ajar for potentially another cut next year.

October

Hold

November

Hold

N/A

Stephen Koukoulas

+ Read Stephen's full forecast
October

Cut

November

Hold

There is some stimulus in the economy and it appears to be recovering from the low point at the middle of 2019.

October

Hold

November

Hold

Almost run out puff. Need to consider quantitative easing.

October

Hold

November

Hold

Still looking to see what impact recent policy changes have had on the economy.

October

Hold

November

Hold

We have now had three cuts in quick succession. At this stage, it is likely the RBA will take a wait and see approach. With monetary policy not as effective as it has been historically, we should expect to see a greater focus by Government on other ways to boost economic growth including tax cuts and Government spending.

John Hewson
October

Hold

November

Hold

Unsure of economic conditions saving fire power.

MIchaelYardneyHeadshot100px
October

Cut

November

Hold

The RBA will wait and see how the effects of its recent 3 interest rate cuts pan out.

KatrinaEll
October

N/A

November

Hold

The rba has already cut rates by 75 basis points so will wait for the stimulus to filter through.

Alex Joiner
October

N/A

November

Hold

A stabilization of the labour market gives the RBA some time to assess the impact of its policy easing to date.

Clement Allan Tisdell

Clement Allan Tisdell

+ Read Clement's full forecast
October

N/A

November

Hold

Reducing effect of interest cuts.

Thieliant
October

N/A

November

Hold

Jeffrey Sheen
October

Hold

November

Hold

Though the RBA has prepared the public for lower rates and possible unconventional monetary policy, I think they will (and should) hold their fire for the time being.

Craig Emerson
October

Cut

November

Hold

The cash rate is getting very close to ground zero.

October

Cut

November

Hold

While September quarter inflation was low and economic data has generally remained soft, recent RBA commentary highlighting a gentle upturn in growth and greater tolerance for low inflation suggests a lack of urgency to ease for now.

AlisonBoothANU
October

Hold

November

Hold

Interest rates have just been lowered and I don't think the fundamentals yet warrant any further change.

Christine Williams
October

Hold

November

Hold

I believe the RBA will sit for a couple of months to see what effect the last reduction has had on the economy. I feel the next reduction will be February 2020

Mala Raghavan
October

Hold

November

Hold

The RBA just brought down the cash rate in October and thus I think they will not immediately bring down the interest rate in November.

October

Hold

November

Hold

The RBA is likely to want to see the impact of recent cuts. Markets have calmed also.

Susan Mitchell
October

Cut

November

Hold

The latest economic data is enough to put the breaks on the RBA's cutting spree for now. September labour force figures would have been welcome news to RBA Board members. ABS data revealed that the unemployment rate declined in September and even though it is far off the Bank's target, the latest figures provide some breathing room for policy makers. That being said, the Consumer Price Index undershot the RBA's target range, growing 0.5% over the September quarter, lifting the annual rate to 1.7%, which builds the case for further monetary policy stimulus in the short-term.

October

Cut

November

Hold

Following recent easing, the RBA is likely to need time to assess the impacts before acting further.

Peter Haller
October

Hold

November

Hold

Encouraging employment data had reduced the need for the RBA to deploy further easing in the near term.

Nicholas gruen
October

Cut

November

Hold

Because they'd like it to go lower, but my guess is that they'll play it cute and give it another month.

Tony Makin
October

Cut

November

Hold

Time still needed for previous cut to work through the economy. There's a risk cutting too soon could be counterproductive for consumer and business confidence.

DavidR
October

Cut

November

Hold

A very low inflation read next week may change this, however for now the RBA can watch the data evolve (especially jobs). They have noted the diminishing effectiveness of monetary policy as rates get closer to zero.

October

Cut

November

Hold

While the Bank remains on a slight easing bias, the September job numbers were decent. This will probably stay its hand.

October

Hold

November

Hold

The reserve bank governor has given hints.

Jonathan Chancellor

+ Read Jonathan's full forecast
October

Hold

November

Hold

The bank is watching the impact of its past three cuts.

Malcolm Wood
October

Cut

November

Hold

Guidance from the Governor that we should not assume more cuts, and that the economy is gradually improving.

Jordan Eliseo
October

Cut

November

Hold

The Reserve Bank may want to see how recent aggressive cuts feed through to the real economy (or not...) and recent cuts have tended to instill pessimism rather than boost consumer sentiment.

Mathew Tiller LJ Hooker
October

Cut

November

Hold

The RBA will hold rates steady in order to assess the impact of the last two cuts. The early signs for the economy, as a whole, have not been overwhelmingly positive with the biggest positive impact, of the rate cuts, been felt by property markets across the country. Property prices are now slowly increasing, auction clearance rates are back above 75% and LJ Hooker agents are reporting a major uplift in attendance at open homes.

October

Hold

November

Hold

The Reserve Bank is trying to fire up economic activity by shooting interest rate cuts into the economy, but it seems it is firing blanks, because the latest rounds of cuts may be doing little to encourage economic growth. In fact, the cuts are likely doing more harm than good. For instance, house prices have been increasing (making it harder for first timer buyers to get into the market), existing mortgage holders are maintaining repayments at current levels to help reduce their debt quicker, and therefore not spending this "freed up" cash, there's been little or no impact on the unemployment rate, corporate investment has not rebounded, business confidence is low, and the continuing reduction, and signalling of future rate reductions is sending negative messages to consumers about their economic outlook, which is doing nothing for consumer confidence, and has resulted in somewhat subdued retails sales. And then of course, pensioners and retirees who rely on savings income are being hit particularly hard by low, or even negative (in real terms) interest rates. So if the Reserve Bank is shooting blanks, what's the point of shooting more blanks into the economy? The reality is the private sector alone is not going to revive the economy. The government has to start spending. And until that happens, the Reserve Bank should hold rates where they are, until a movement either way, has a reasonable chance of having some positive economic impacts.

Tim
October

Cut

November

Hold

Most recent labour report and CPI print in line with expectations have taken the urgency out of further easing in the near term, giving the RBA time to assess the impact of the three recent cuts before providing a last round of easing in early 2020.

October

Hold

November

Hold

RBA will most likely wait to assess global conditions and local response to recent cuts.

October

Hold

November

Hold

With the labour market holding up and a stabilisation in global market sentiment around the prospects of recession and a rebound in the Australian housing market, the RBA can afford to take a breather in their current easing cycle.

When will we see the bottom of the rate cycle?

When will we see the bottom of the rate cycle?

Most of the experts we surveyed think the RBA will cut the cash rate as low as 0.50%. But a few predict even lower.

Watch our latest Australian property market update

How has the cash rate changed over time?

The graph above shows the movement in the official cash rate target. A lower cash rate reduces the cost of borrowing money so more people are encouraged to borrow - stimulating the economy. Higher interest rates tend to encourage spending. This is how a rise or fall in rates affects the level of supply and demand and therefore the level of inflation - which the RBA wants to keep in the target range of 2%-3%.

What is the official cash rate and who sets it?

Once a month, the RBA board meets to decide whether to raise the cash rate, lower it or keep it the same. Their decision will be influenced by a wide range of factors including inflation, the performance of the Aussie dollar, the housing market, Australia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and levels of consumer confidence. The board will assess all of these factors in relation to the RBA's goals and objectives before reaching a consensus on what to do with the official cash rate.

The RBA's monetary policy aims to achieve three key objectives which are set out in the Reserve Bank Act 1959:

  • The stability of the currency of Australia;
  • The maintenance of full employment in Australia; and
  • The economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia.

In order to reach those objectives, the RBA sets an inflation target of 2-3% over the medium term. In other words, the RBA wants the Consumer Price Index (CPI, based on the average prices for a range of common goods and services) to increase by between 2 and 3 per cent each year.

The bank can control inflation by making adjustments to the official cash rate. For example, if inflation rises above the target rate it means that Australians are spending their money too freely and prices are increasing too rapidly. But if the RBA raises interest rates to make it more expensive to borrow money, the economy will settle and price increases will slow down. Conversely, the RBA will drop interest rates if inflation is too low and the economy is stagnating, encouraging more Australians to spend more money and stimulate economic growth.

How the cash rate can impact your finances

See how the cash rate changes can affect your savings, term deposits, home loans and what you can do about it.

If the rate rises

Find an account which offers the same features and fees but with a better rate.

If the rate gets cut

Consider comparing a competitive term deposit rate so your interest earnings don't suffer.

If the rate holds

Carry out a quick comparison to make sure you're getting the best return on your money, see what promotions banks are offering.

Banks and other lenders all over the country use the RBA's official cash rate as the benchmark for the rates they offer on their variable rate home loans and other financial products. You may have seen or heard news stories following a rate change announcement by the RBA as economists predict when the banks will pass the RBA's change on to their customers.
If the rate rises

Ask your lender for a rate discount so that if rates do rise you won't be worse off, or alternatively, compare other variable or even fixed rate home loans to find a better deal.

If the rate gets cut

See how your lender responds to the cut. If they don't pass on the full rate cut, ask for a rate discount, and if you're still not happy start comparing what other deals are in the market. Some lenders have been known to pass on more than the official rate cut after an RBA announcement!

If the rate holds

Compare other variable rate home loans to make sure you're still getting the best deal. If rates are tipped to rise in the near future you may also want to compare fixed rates.

If the rate rises

Your rate won't rise as you locked it in, so you can relax a little. If your fixed rate is soon to end, start comparing what deals are being offered so you don't find yourself scrambling to lock in another rate.

If the rate gets cut

If you feel your home loan is no longer competitive, you might want to obtain a quote from your lender to find out possible exit costs. If this figure is reasonable, you might want to consider comparing variable home loans. Use our switching costs calculator to see if you'd save.

If the rate holds

Because your rate is fixed for an agreed period of time, a decision by the RBA to hold won't have as much of an effect on you depending on how long you still have to go in your fixed term. As mentioned above, you might still want to monitor the other deals in the market to keep informed.

If the rate rises

If rates rise, savings accounts rates could be increased as well. If this happens, you might want to compare the rates of high interest savings accounts. Remember that most term deposits have interest penalties if you withdraw your funds early, so keep this in mind.

If the rate gets cut

Your rate won't change because it's locked in, but if you're nearing the end of your term start comparing both high interest savings accounts and term deposits to find a good deal.

If the rate holds

Compare accounts and ensure you're aware of what's being offered in the market.

Check out Finder's RBA survey press releases

RBA news and announcements

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46 Responses

  1. Default Gravatar
    octoJune 18, 2018

    how long can AUD interest rate remain Low…..?

    how soon will the AUD follow the US FED Rate Hike…….?

    thank you

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      NikkiJune 20, 2018Staff

      Hi Octo!

      Thanks for getting in touch!

      To know more information on your questions, you can fill in your email address in the box provided and you’ll be updated on RBA’s decisions on the official cash rate target.

      While we provide you with general information, please know that we don’t stand as a representation for RBA or any company featured on our site.

      Hope that clarifies!

      Cheers,
      Nikki

  2. Default Gravatar
    TaneeshaMay 24, 2018

    Do you think the cash rate will stay the same at the June RBA meeting?

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      JoshuaMay 24, 2018Staff

      Hi Taneesha,

      Thanks for getting in touch with finder. I hope all is well for you. :)

      Unfortunately, we are not in the best place to make a prediction. However, you might get an idea whether the RBA cash rate will rise or fall by looking at the factors that affect it. These factors may include:

      – Household debt
      – Inflation
      – Wage growth
      – Consumer Confidence Index
      – Unemployment

      I hope this helps. Should you have further questions, please don’t hesitate to reach us out again.

      Have a wonderful day!

      Cheers,
      Joshua

  3. Default Gravatar
    BrookMay 5, 2018

    What do you think that how the international economic condition influence the cash rate?

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      JeniMay 6, 2018Staff

      Hi Brook,

      Thank you for getting in touch with finder.

      This is nice question. Domestic financial conditions remain expansionary. There has been some tightening in short-term
      money markets, which has flowed through to a small increase in funding costs for a range of financial institutions and businesses. However, borrowing rates remain low for households and businesses. Growth in housing credit has eased since mid last year, particularly for credit extended to investors, while growth in business debt has remained moderate. The Australian dollar remains within its narrow range of the past two years. Financial market prices suggest that the cash rate is expected to remain unchanged this year and to increase around mid 2019. If you are eager to learn more about the domestic financial condition according to RBA, please check out this link.

      I hope this helps.

      Have a great day!

      Cheers,
      Jeni

  4. Default Gravatar
    RobJune 11, 2017

    What do you think will be the next move for RBA on cash rate and when?

    Thank you!

    • Default Gravatar
      JonathanJune 11, 2017

      Hi Rob!

      Thanks for the comment.

      As of the moment, most of resident rate experts predict that rates will be the same. The cash rate target is released on the first Tuesday of every month except January.

      You can follow the updated forecast right here.

      Hope this helps.

      Cheers,
      Jonathan

    • Default Gravatar
      RobJune 11, 2017

      Thanks Jonathan, I meant in the longer term, 6-12 months.

    • Default Gravatar
      JonathanJune 11, 2017

      Hi Rob!

      We appreciate your follow-up.

      Currently, there are multiple factors that need to be considered and due to the volatility of these factors, it is a bit hard to conclude whether they’ll leave the rates unchanged for the next few months or not.

      If you have further inquiries, you may contact:

      Media and Communications
      Secretary’s Department
      Reserve Bank of Australia
      SYDNEY
      Phone: +61 2 9551 9720
      Fax: +61 2 9551 8033
      Email: rbainfo@rba.gov.au

      Hope this helps.

      Cheers,
      Jonathan

  5. Default Gravatar
    JulieSeptember 1, 2016

    When do you think the RBA will start raising rates?

    • Default Gravatar
      JodieSeptember 7, 2016

      Hi Julie,

      Thank you for contacting finder.com.au we are a financial comparison website and general information service.

      It is hard to predict the movement of the cash rate as it is based on a multitude of factors that are continually changing however 7 out of the 38 experts we surveyed in our latest RBA survey for September 2016 said they predict it will start going up in July 2017 or beyond.

      Regards
      Jodie

  6. Default Gravatar
    EricFebruary 25, 2016

    Hi Belinda

    Appreciate if you would also send me informations regarding findings of monthly RBA survey.

    Regards
    Eric

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaFebruary 26, 2016Staff

      Hi Eric,

      Thanks for getting in touch.

      On this page, you can view the RBA Cash Rate Target Announcements for each month from February 2015 until February 2016. You can also view the commentary of our resident rate experts in the lead up to each Board meeting which occurs on the first Tuesday of every month (except January).

      Please feel free to sign up to receive our detailed RBA cash rate updates by completing the form provided above.

      Regards,
      Belinda

  7. Default Gravatar
    SyedDecember 8, 2015

    Hi,
    My new house is ready now and wondering what is the best time to sell, should I put my house in the market now or January or wait for the February. I am not committed any where so I can wait.

    Your advise needed.

    Thanks

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaDecember 9, 2015Staff

      Hi Syed,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      As finder.com.au is an online comparison service so we are not licensed to give you personal advice regarding the best time to sell your property.

      You can read our guide here about considerations when selling your house.

      All the best,
      Belinda

  8. Default Gravatar
    loooooolAugust 16, 2015

    hello.
    i wonder if i could receive some information regarding not only the latest current economic situation, but also cash rate movements over the year.

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaAugust 17, 2015Staff

      Hi Dongho,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      Above on this page you can view the ‘Reserve Bank monthly announcements’ to read about the cash rate movements and monetary policy decisions that have occurred over the course of this year. You can also sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates by filling in the form provided above.

      In regards to the current economic situation, finder.com.au is an online comparative website and we can’t comment on the activity of the broader Australian economy.

      Thanks,
      Belinda

  9. Default Gravatar
    OliJuly 17, 2015

    Can you please send through the information on the RBA via email?
    I’m doing a school Economic assignment on the RBA and financial markets

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaJuly 17, 2015Staff

      Hi Oli,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      I’ve emailed you with some information regarding the findings from our monthly RBA survey.

      Please note that on this page you can sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates.

      Thanks,
      Belinda

  10. Default Gravatar
    yazminJuly 7, 2015

    Hi,

    I was just wondering if I could have information regarding how interests rates will unfold over the next year. In particular, if the current interest rates will be appropriate for the economic conditions in Australia.

    Thank you
    Yazmin

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaJuly 8, 2015Staff

      Hi Yazmin,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      Firstly, I’d like to point out that finder.com.au is an online comparison and general information service so we’re not in a position to forecast interest rates.

      However, on this page you can sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates which you might find useful.

      Thanks,
      Belinda

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