RBA Cash Rate

Expert analysis on the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate decisions

hold

1.00%

Cash rate hold

The RBA held the cash rate at 1.00% on 3 September 2019

Finder surveys over 40 economists and property experts every month to evaluate the future of the RBA's cash rate decision. Experts also provide commentary on the current state of the property market and the Australian economy and their predictions for the cash rate's future. This page contains recent cash rate analysis and predictions for the next rate decision. We update the page with new forecasts at the end of the month and again on the first Tuesday of the month, when the board of the Reserve Bank meets to make its decision.

Skip ahead to read the latest analysis, see how the cash rate has changed over time and learn more about how the cash rate affects you.

95%of our resident rate experts

correctly predicted the cash rate to hold at 1.00% on Tuesday 3 September 2019 View forecasts →

Next meeting: 2:30pm 8 October 2019

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The latest cash rate analysis from the experts

+ Open all commentary

Here are the most recent cash rate predictions and commentary from the experts in our panel. At the end of the month we'll update this page with the latest predictions for October 2019.

August

Hold

September

Hold

RBA clearly primed to cut rates again but should be mindful of keeping some stimulus in reserve given volatility of global markets. Latest labour market data positive for steady rates although another cut still likely this year.

Leanne Pilkington
August

Hold

September

Hold

We see another cut on the horizon, potentially later this year. The recent pick up in housing market performance is a bright spot amid broader concerns, both domestic and global, and we may find the importance of housing to the national economy will be further reinforced in the face of these challenges.

Stephen Koukoulas

+ Read Stephen's full forecast
August

Hold

September

Cut

Low inflation and a deteriorating labour market suggest it should cut ad not postpone the decision.

PeterGilmore
August

Hold

September

Hold

It's a watching brief, with mixed outcomes coming from key indicators.

August

Hold

September

Hold

With uncertainty in the world markets, I believe the RBA will want to hold their nerve until more plays out.

John Hewson
August

Hold

September

Hold

Still unsure of state of economy.

August

Hold

September

Hold

A pause is expected after two rate cuts earlier this year. Nonetheless, the RBA is prepared to lower rates "if needed", so a further reduction in the cash rate is likely over coming months.

MIchaelYardneyHeadshot100px
August

Hold

September

Hold

The RBA is now going to wait and see how things pan out following it's 2 consecutive interest rate cuts, however it won't hesitate to take further future action if the unemployment rate doesn't fall or inflation doesn't pick up.

Julie Toth
August

Hold

September

Hold

No significant change in local or global conditions, outlook or risks since last meeting.

Jeffrey Sheen
August

Hold

September

Hold

The real cash rate (after accounting for inflation) is negative and sufficiently low to encourage borrowing and spending.

Craig Emerson
August

Hold

September

Hold

The RBA will be reluctant to use up its little remaining ammunition.

Rebecca Cassells
August

Hold

September

Hold

Further cuts at this point in time are unlikely given the recent pick-up in the housing market, and the labour market holding steady. Moving the cash rate any lower will elevate market uncertainty, countering any potential benefits to stimulate investment and consumption responses.

August

Hold

September

Hold

Given the threats to growth from falling housing construction, weak consumer spending and the trade war along with the RBA's own forecasts showing no progress in reducing unemployment, boosting wages growth or reaching its inflation target anytime soon the RBA should be cutting again on Tuesday. But while it wouldn't surprise us if they did and its a close call it looks more likely that they would prefer to wait a bit longer to gauge the impact of recent rate cuts and the Government's tax cuts.

AlisonBoothANU
August

Hold

September

Hold

Change not warranted yet.

Thieliant
August

Hold

September

Hold

The RBA has expressed a clear easing bias, but recent comments indicate they are content to observe the data flow and international developments for a few months before making their next move.

Christine Williams
August

Hold

September

Hold

I feel with the issues between USA and China, the Reserve Bank is waiting to see what the outcome will be.

Mala Raghavan
August

Hold

September

Hold

It is still early days for further interest rate cut. If the slow growth, both locally and globally continues, than RBA might cut rates later part of the year.

Alex Joiner
August

Hold

September

Hold

The RBA have stated that it would like an "accumulation" of evidence before it acts again to ease policy. So it is clear it wants to monitor the data flow, particularly that on the labour market, before it moves again.

August

Hold

September

Hold

Will wait to see impact of recent cuts.

August

Hold

September

Hold

N/A

Sarah Hunter
August

N/A

September

Hold

The Board have signalled that they want to see how activity unfolds before potentially cutting again, and given there has been limited data since their last meeting (and none of it has been surprising), I expect them to remain on hold.

Susan Mitchell
August

N/A

September

Hold

The RBA will wait and assess the impact of the two most recent cuts before lowering the cash rate again. The latest data from the ABS revealed a stable unemployment rate and flat annual wage growth. There are encouraging indicators from the property market that a gradual recovery may be on the horizon. Auction clearance rates indicate that buyer demand is growing and the latest dwelling value data points to a clearer stabilisation of the property market. The RBA will continue to monitor developments in the domestic economy, as well as the global economy, which is currently under threat by US-China trade tensions before providing further monetary policy easing.

August

N/A

September

Hold

Although it is likely that the RBA's next cash rate move will be down, the RBA have made it clear that they would like more time to observe and assess what impact the two recent cuts have had on the economy before moving again.

August

Hold

September

Hold

Given recent cuts, the RBA will need to see the impact of these before providing further easing.

Peter Haller
August

Hold

September

Hold

It is too early to determine the impact of the June and July cash rate cuts on the economy.

Nicholas gruen
August

Hold

September

Cut

They should cut the rate by more, but they like the optics of doing it slowly.

August

Hold

September

Hold

It hasn't been long since two consecutive rate cuts were made, so it's likely the RBA will hold the cash rate, and gather more information on the economy before they move again.

Clement Allan Tisdell

Clement Allan Tisdell

+ Read Clement's full forecast
August

Hold

September

Hold

RBA might take a steady approach.

Tony Makin
August

Hold

September

Hold

Previous RBA research suggested it takes up to 18 months for the effects of official interest rate changes to feed through to the wider economy. The RBA should therefore be waiting a little longer before cutting further, especially in light of the weaker dollar of recent weeks.

DavidR
August

Hold

September

Hold

A cut would not shock, however I expect the RBA would like more time to analyse the impact of the last two rate cuts, and the recent tax cuts.

August

Cut

September

Hold

I'm inclined to think the next cut will come after the next CPI print, although a cut this Tuesday is entirely possible.

AndrewRP

Andrew Reeve-Parker

+ Read Andrew's full forecast
August

Hold

September

Hold

Adopt a wait and see approach for the recent two cuts.

August

Hold

September

Hold

Too early to move.

Jonathan Chancellor

+ Read Jonathan's full forecast
August

Hold

September

Hold

There's no pressing need to move again as the RBA will now sit back to judge the impact of their two recent cuts.

August

Cut

September

Hold

The impact of the last two cuts have not take hold.

Malcolm Wood
August

Hold

September

Hold

Ideally the RBA would like to assess the impact of their 1st 2 easings and the tax rebate before easing again.

Thieliant
August

Hold

September

Hold

The labour market remains solid so the RBA will probably hold off for a little longer before cutting rates to 0.5% by early next year.

Jordan Eliseo
August

Hold

September

Hold

Domestic data looks steady and the RBA may pause to observe developments overseas.

August

Hold

September

Hold

RBA is likely to sit and wait next couple of months to assess full impact of recent rate cuts.

Holden_Richard 1
August

N/A

September

Hold

They are inherently cautious and will want to see how trade tensions evolve.

August

Hold

September

Hold

The RBA is reluctant to cut rates further. They will hold out until the unemployment rate begins to rise or if GDP growth slumps. Until then, rates will be on hold.

Watch our latest Australian property market update

How has the cash rate changed over time?

The graph above shows the movement in the official cash rate target. A lower cash rate reduces the cost of borrowing money so more people are encouraged to borrow - stimulating the economy. Higher interest rates tend to encourage spending. This is how a rise or fall in rates affects the level of supply and demand and therefore the level of inflation - which the RBA wants to keep in the target range of 2%-3%.

What is the official cash rate and who sets it?

Once a month, the RBA board meets to decide whether to raise the cash rate, lower it or keep it the same. Their decision will be influenced by a wide range of factors including inflation, the performance of the Aussie dollar, the housing market, Australia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and levels of consumer confidence. The board will assess all of these factors in relation to the RBA's goals and objectives before reaching a consensus on what to do with the official cash rate.

The RBA's monetary policy aims to achieve three key objectives which are set out in the Reserve Bank Act 1959:

  • The stability of the currency of Australia;
  • The maintenance of full employment in Australia; and
  • The economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia.

In order to reach those objectives, the RBA sets an inflation target of 2-3% over the medium term. In other words, the RBA wants the Consumer Price Index (CPI, based on the average prices for a range of common goods and services) to increase by between 2 and 3 per cent each year.

The bank can control inflation by making adjustments to the official cash rate. For example, if inflation rises above the target rate it means that Australians are spending their money too freely and prices are increasing too rapidly. But if the RBA raises interest rates to make it more expensive to borrow money, the economy will settle and price increases will slow down. Conversely, the RBA will drop interest rates if inflation is too low and the economy is stagnating, encouraging more Australians to spend more money and stimulate economic growth.

How the cash rate can impact your finances

See how the cash rate changes can affect your savings, term deposits, home loans and what you can do about it.

If the rate rises

Find an account which offers the same features and fees but with a better rate.

If the rate gets cut

Consider comparing a competitive term deposit rate so your interest earnings don't suffer.

If the rate holds

Carry out a quick comparison to make sure you're getting the best return on your money, see what promotions banks are offering.

Banks and other lenders all over the country use the RBA's official cash rate as the benchmark for the rates they offer on their variable rate home loans and other financial products. You may have seen or heard news stories following a rate change announcement by the RBA as economists predict when the banks will pass the RBA's change on to their customers.
If the rate rises

Ask your lender for a rate discount so that if rates do rise you won't be worse off, or alternatively, compare other variable or even fixed rate home loans to find a better deal.

If the rate gets cut

See how your lender responds to the cut. If they don't pass on the full rate cut, ask for a rate discount, and if you're still not happy start comparing what other deals are in the market. Some lenders have been known to pass on more than the official rate cut after an RBA announcement!

If the rate holds

Compare other variable rate home loans to make sure you're still getting the best deal. If rates are tipped to rise in the near future you may also want to compare fixed rates.

If the rate rises

Your rate won't rise as you locked it in, so you can relax a little. If your fixed rate is soon to end, start comparing what deals are being offered so you don't find yourself scrambling to lock in another rate.

If the rate gets cut

If you feel your home loan is no longer competitive, you might want to obtain a quote from your lender to find out possible exit costs. If this figure is reasonable, you might want to consider comparing variable home loans. Use our switching costs calculator to see if you'd save.

If the rate holds

Because your rate is fixed for an agreed period of time, a decision by the RBA to hold won't have as much of an effect on you depending on how long you still have to go in your fixed term. As mentioned above, you might still want to monitor the other deals in the market to keep informed.

If the rate rises

If rates rise, savings accounts rates could be increased as well. If this happens, you might want to compare the rates of high interest savings accounts. Remember that most term deposits have interest penalties if you withdraw your funds early, so keep this in mind.

If the rate gets cut

Your rate won't change because it's locked in, but if you're nearing the end of your term start comparing both high interest savings accounts and term deposits to find a good deal.

If the rate holds

Compare accounts and ensure you're aware of what's being offered in the market.

Check out Finder's RBA survey press releases

RBA news and announcements

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46 Responses

  1. Default Gravatar
    octoJune 18, 2018

    how long can AUD interest rate remain Low…..?

    how soon will the AUD follow the US FED Rate Hike…….?

    thank you

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      NikkiJune 20, 2018Staff

      Hi Octo!

      Thanks for getting in touch!

      To know more information on your questions, you can fill in your email address in the box provided and you’ll be updated on RBA’s decisions on the official cash rate target.

      While we provide you with general information, please know that we don’t stand as a representation for RBA or any company featured on our site.

      Hope that clarifies!

      Cheers,
      Nikki

  2. Default Gravatar
    TaneeshaMay 24, 2018

    Do you think the cash rate will stay the same at the June RBA meeting?

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      JoshuaMay 24, 2018Staff

      Hi Taneesha,

      Thanks for getting in touch with finder. I hope all is well for you. :)

      Unfortunately, we are not in the best place to make a prediction. However, you might get an idea whether the RBA cash rate will rise or fall by looking at the factors that affect it. These factors may include:

      – Household debt
      – Inflation
      – Wage growth
      – Consumer Confidence Index
      – Unemployment

      I hope this helps. Should you have further questions, please don’t hesitate to reach us out again.

      Have a wonderful day!

      Cheers,
      Joshua

  3. Default Gravatar
    BrookMay 5, 2018

    What do you think that how the international economic condition influence the cash rate?

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      JeniMay 6, 2018Staff

      Hi Brook,

      Thank you for getting in touch with finder.

      This is nice question. Domestic financial conditions remain expansionary. There has been some tightening in short-term
      money markets, which has flowed through to a small increase in funding costs for a range of financial institutions and businesses. However, borrowing rates remain low for households and businesses. Growth in housing credit has eased since mid last year, particularly for credit extended to investors, while growth in business debt has remained moderate. The Australian dollar remains within its narrow range of the past two years. Financial market prices suggest that the cash rate is expected to remain unchanged this year and to increase around mid 2019. If you are eager to learn more about the domestic financial condition according to RBA, please check out this link.

      I hope this helps.

      Have a great day!

      Cheers,
      Jeni

  4. Default Gravatar
    RobJune 11, 2017

    What do you think will be the next move for RBA on cash rate and when?

    Thank you!

    • Default Gravatar
      JonathanJune 11, 2017

      Hi Rob!

      Thanks for the comment.

      As of the moment, most of resident rate experts predict that rates will be the same. The cash rate target is released on the first Tuesday of every month except January.

      You can follow the updated forecast right here.

      Hope this helps.

      Cheers,
      Jonathan

    • Default Gravatar
      RobJune 11, 2017

      Thanks Jonathan, I meant in the longer term, 6-12 months.

    • Default Gravatar
      JonathanJune 11, 2017

      Hi Rob!

      We appreciate your follow-up.

      Currently, there are multiple factors that need to be considered and due to the volatility of these factors, it is a bit hard to conclude whether they’ll leave the rates unchanged for the next few months or not.

      If you have further inquiries, you may contact:

      Media and Communications
      Secretary’s Department
      Reserve Bank of Australia
      SYDNEY
      Phone: +61 2 9551 9720
      Fax: +61 2 9551 8033
      Email: rbainfo@rba.gov.au

      Hope this helps.

      Cheers,
      Jonathan

  5. Default Gravatar
    JulieSeptember 1, 2016

    When do you think the RBA will start raising rates?

    • Default Gravatar
      JodieSeptember 7, 2016

      Hi Julie,

      Thank you for contacting finder.com.au we are a financial comparison website and general information service.

      It is hard to predict the movement of the cash rate as it is based on a multitude of factors that are continually changing however 7 out of the 38 experts we surveyed in our latest RBA survey for September 2016 said they predict it will start going up in July 2017 or beyond.

      Regards
      Jodie

  6. Default Gravatar
    EricFebruary 25, 2016

    Hi Belinda

    Appreciate if you would also send me informations regarding findings of monthly RBA survey.

    Regards
    Eric

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaFebruary 26, 2016Staff

      Hi Eric,

      Thanks for getting in touch.

      On this page, you can view the RBA Cash Rate Target Announcements for each month from February 2015 until February 2016. You can also view the commentary of our resident rate experts in the lead up to each Board meeting which occurs on the first Tuesday of every month (except January).

      Please feel free to sign up to receive our detailed RBA cash rate updates by completing the form provided above.

      Regards,
      Belinda

  7. Default Gravatar
    SyedDecember 8, 2015

    Hi,
    My new house is ready now and wondering what is the best time to sell, should I put my house in the market now or January or wait for the February. I am not committed any where so I can wait.

    Your advise needed.

    Thanks

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaDecember 9, 2015Staff

      Hi Syed,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      As finder.com.au is an online comparison service so we are not licensed to give you personal advice regarding the best time to sell your property.

      You can read our guide here about considerations when selling your house.

      All the best,
      Belinda

  8. Default Gravatar
    loooooolAugust 16, 2015

    hello.
    i wonder if i could receive some information regarding not only the latest current economic situation, but also cash rate movements over the year.

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaAugust 17, 2015Staff

      Hi Dongho,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      Above on this page you can view the ‘Reserve Bank monthly announcements’ to read about the cash rate movements and monetary policy decisions that have occurred over the course of this year. You can also sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates by filling in the form provided above.

      In regards to the current economic situation, finder.com.au is an online comparative website and we can’t comment on the activity of the broader Australian economy.

      Thanks,
      Belinda

  9. Default Gravatar
    OliJuly 17, 2015

    Can you please send through the information on the RBA via email?
    I’m doing a school Economic assignment on the RBA and financial markets

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaJuly 17, 2015Staff

      Hi Oli,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      I’ve emailed you with some information regarding the findings from our monthly RBA survey.

      Please note that on this page you can sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates.

      Thanks,
      Belinda

  10. Default Gravatar
    yazminJuly 7, 2015

    Hi,

    I was just wondering if I could have information regarding how interests rates will unfold over the next year. In particular, if the current interest rates will be appropriate for the economic conditions in Australia.

    Thank you
    Yazmin

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaJuly 8, 2015Staff

      Hi Yazmin,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      Firstly, I’d like to point out that finder.com.au is an online comparison and general information service so we’re not in a position to forecast interest rates.

      However, on this page you can sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates which you might find useful.

      Thanks,
      Belinda

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