RBA Cash Rate

Your destination for RBA news, expert forecasts and more

hold

1.50%

Cash rate held

at 1.50% on Tuesday 5 December 2017

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets the official cash rate target on the first Tuesday of every month except January. Below are expert forecasts from the finder.com.au Reserve Bank Survey™ of some of Australia's brightest minds in economics and property. You can also learn more about the RBA and how its decisions influence the interest rates banks charge, and learn about the best strategies for home owners and investors when there's a rate cut, hold or rise decision.

100% of the experts in our survey correctly predicted that the next cash rate move would be to hold. Enter our poll and let us know what you think will happen next month.

100%of our resident rate experts

correctly forecast the rate to hold at 1.50% on Tuesday 5 December 2017 View forecasts →

Next meeting: 2:30pm 6th February 2018


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Our resident rate experts

+ Open all commentary

Find out what each of our experts predicts for next month and their detailed forecast explanations

MIchaelYardneyHeadshot100px
November

No change

December

No change

The official RBA interest rate is likely to remain at 1.5% throughout 2018. Australia's economy is still operating below its potential with economic growth not strong enough to justify an interest rate increase. The positive signs of jobs creation, falling unemployment and rises in full-time employment are being offset by slow wages growth, sluggish retail sales and a benign inflationary environment. Fortunately, the RBA will be pleased our property markets are cooling and will not feel the need to use rising rates to slow the market.

Jordan Eliseo
November

No change

December

No change

The RBA will be happy to sit tight as we approach Christmas, and monitor incoming data. With housing starting to roll over, retailers facing a tough holiday period, and a stubbornly high Australian dollar, we remain confident that there next move will be a cut, but this will take time to play out.

November

No change

December

No change

Strong business conditions, strong employment and the RBA's own expectations for stronger growth point to an eventual rate hike but low inflation, record low wages growth, the slowing housing cycle, uncertainty around consumer spending and the still too high $A argue for flat or even lower rates. So the outcome is likely to be on hold for the 16th month in a row.

Christine Williams
November

N/A

December

No change

Overall the economy has not changed in the last month. Retail is still quite slow leading up to the festive seasons spending.

November

No change

December

No change

Anaemic inflation, combined with a drop in consumer sentiment, and non-existent property price growth over the last month, will encourage the Reserve Bank to leave the cash rate on hold once again.

November

N/A

December

No change

Inflation remains below target, but growth is lifting

Alex Joiner
November

No change

December

No change

No economic justification for a rate rise. As house price growth decelerates pressure on the RBA to raise rates dissipates. Its outlook for inflation does not warrant any move or indeed even any more of a hawkish stance.

November

No change

December

No change

The RBA doesn't want to cut interest rates for fear of inducing households to take on more debt, but equally economic growth and inflation aren't strong enough to prompt it to raise interest rates.

AlisonBoothANU
November

N/A

December

No change

The fundamentals don't justify any change for the moment.

Nicholas gruen
November

N/A

December

No change

They've signalled they will.

November

N/A

December

No change

Modest demand and inflation outcomes present no risk or need to raise rates.

November

N/A

December

No change

Still watching wages and house prices

Darryl Gobbett
November

N/A

December

No change

RBA comments suggest even more uncertainty about the inflation forecasts, when falling wages growth will stabilise and the very high and rising levels of household debt, which might justify ending the very low cash rate, but this being offset by the concerns at what a rise may do to the $A and household consumption. So hold off.

November

No change

December

No change

Low inflation and ongoing spare capacity will keep the RBA from raising rates despite a more upbeat outlook for business investment and the labour market.

November

No change

December

No change

Inflation and wage growth remain low. Both are expected to increase only gradually over time. Further progress is expected on reducing spare capacity in the economy and current rate settings appear consistent with sustainable growth and achieving the medium-term inflation target.

November

No change

December

No change

The economy still contains sufficient slack to keep underlying inflation at low levels. The RBA will need to keep rates on hold well into 2018 to support our export and import competing sectors, which are currently the drivers of growth.

November

No change

December

No change

Economy is still too weak to increase and I would say the RBA is waiting to see what the data says early next year.

Robert Montgomery
November

N/A

December

No change

There has been little change in economic indicators, so the cash rate will continue to remain on hold.

November

N/A

December

No change

N/A

November

No change

December

No change

While the economy could do with support and the lead into the holiday season could be a great time to generate consumer confidence, the RBA is likely to not move due to ongoing concerns in housing and credit markets.

November

No change

December

No change

The economy continues to perform in line with the RBA's expectations, so there is no need for RBA action at this time.

November

No change

December

No change

Australia needs interest rates to stay low at the moment. General inflationary pressures are well under control - but several components of demand are below par and need a supportive interest rate backdrop.

Mathew Tiller LJ Hooker
November

No change

December

No change

The soft outlook for GDP, inflation and wages growth, combined with the moderation in property price growth, should keep the cash rate on hold over the short term.

Brian Parker
November

No change

December

No change

The data flow over the last month won't have significantly changed their view on the outlook for inflation or growth.

November

N/A

December

No change

Data does not support a move at this stage.

Leanne Pilkington
November

No change

December

No change

The OECD has recently signalled that the winds of change in the Australian economy may be preparing to blow, and that a rate rise may come sooner than previously thought. Even so, this would be 12 months away. In our view, with the heat gone from the housing market, and with wages, unemployment and inflation steady, there’s no impetus for the RBA to tinker with interest rates in the near term.

John Hewson
November

No change

December

No change

Insufficient data

Clement Allan Tisdell

Clement Allan Tisdell

+ Read Clement's full forecast

November

No change

December

No change

No reasons to expect a change.

November

No change

December

No change

The RBA continues to ignore the signals that point to the need for an interest rate cut - low wages growth and inflation, weak consumer spending and moderate growth.

November

No change

December

No change

The RBA has signalled no increases in rates for the foreseeable future. Whether or not this is wise doesn't matter, the RBA will sit on their hands for the next 6 months at least.

November

No change

December

No change

RBA has again made it clear it has no appetite for cutting rates further, but nor will it start raising them until there is a more solid basis than presently exists for confidence that inflation will return to within the target band, that economic growth will return to trend, and that spare capacity in the labour market is being steadily absorbed.

November

No change

December

No change

The bank doesn't move unless it has to, and there's no reason now to.

November

No change

December

No change

House prices flattening - wages growth slow - why raise?


What do you think the RBA will do with the cash rate in February 2018?

Hold0%
Cut 0%
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How the cash rate can impact your finances

See how the cash rate changes can affect your savings, term deposits, home loans and what you can do about it.

If the rate rises

Find an account which offers the same features and fees but with a better rate.

If the rate gets cut

Consider comparing a competitive term deposit rate so your interest earnings don't suffer.

If the rate holds

Carry out a quick comparison to make sure you're getting the best return on your money, see what promotions banks are offering.

If the rate rises

Ask your lender for a rate discount so that if rates do rise you won't be worse off, or alternatively, compare other variable or even fixed rate home loans to find a better deal.

If the rate gets cut

See how your lender responds to the cut. If they don't pass on the full rate cut, ask for a rate discount, and if you're still not happy start comparing what other deals are in the market. Some lenders have been known to pass on more than the official rate cut after an RBA announcement!

If the rate holds

Compare other variable rate home loans to make sure you're still getting the best deal. If rates are tipped to rise in the near future you may also want to compare fixed rates.

If the rate rises

Your rate won't rise as you locked it in, so you can relax a little. If your fixed rate is soon to end, start comparing what deals are being offered so you don't find yourself scrambling to lock in another rate.

If the rate gets cut

If you feel your home loan is no longer competitive, you might want to obtain a quote from your lender to find out possible exit costs. If this figure is reasonable, you might want to consider comparing variable home loans. Use our switching costs calculator to see if you'd save.

If the rate holds

Because your rate is fixed for an agreed period of time, a decision by the RBA to hold won't have as much of an effect on you depending on how long you still have to go in your fixed term. As mentioned above, you might still want to monitor the other deals in the market to keep informed.

If the rate rises

If rates rise, savings accounts rates could be increased as well. If this happens, you might want to compare the rates of high interest savings accounts. Remember that most term deposits have interest penalties if you withdraw your funds early, so keep this in mind.

If the rate gets cut

Your rate won't change because it's locked in, but if you're nearing the end of your term start comparing both high interest savings accounts and term deposits to find a good deal.

If the rate holds

Compare accounts and ensure you're aware of what's being offered in the market.

History of the Reserve Bank of Australia official Cash Rate

The graph above shows the movement in the official cash rate target. A lower cash rate reduces the cost of borrowing money so more people are encouraged to borrow - stimulating the economy. Higher interest rates tend to encourage spending. This is how a rise or fall in rates affects the level of supply and demand and therefore the level of inflation - which the RBA wants to keep in the target range of 2%-3%.

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40 Responses

  1. Default Gravatar
    RobJune 11, 2017

    What do you think will be the next move for RBA on cash rate and when?

    Thank you!

    • Default Gravatar
      JonathanJune 11, 2017

      Hi Rob!

      Thanks for the comment.

      As of the moment, most of resident rate experts predict that rates will be the same. The cash rate target is released on the first Tuesday of every month except January.

      You can follow the updated forecast right here.

      Hope this helps.

      Cheers,
      Jonathan

    • Default Gravatar
      RobJune 11, 2017

      Thanks Jonathan, I meant in the longer term, 6-12 months.

    • Default Gravatar
      JonathanJune 11, 2017

      Hi Rob!

      We appreciate your follow-up.

      Currently, there are multiple factors that need to be considered and due to the volatility of these factors, it is a bit hard to conclude whether they’ll leave the rates unchanged for the next few months or not.

      If you have further inquiries, you may contact:

      Media and Communications
      Secretary’s Department
      Reserve Bank of Australia
      SYDNEY
      Phone: +61 2 9551 9720
      Fax: +61 2 9551 8033
      Email: rbainfo@rba.gov.au

      Hope this helps.

      Cheers,
      Jonathan

  2. Default Gravatar
    JulieSeptember 1, 2016

    When do you think the RBA will start raising rates?

    • Staff
      JodieSeptember 7, 2016Staff

      Hi Julie,

      Thank you for contacting finder.com.au we are a financial comparison website and general information service.

      It is hard to predict the movement of the cash rate as it is based on a multitude of factors that are continually changing however 7 out of the 38 experts we surveyed in our latest RBA survey for September 2016 said they predict it will start going up in July 2017 or beyond.

      Regards
      Jodie

  3. Default Gravatar
    EricFebruary 25, 2016

    Hi Belinda

    Appreciate if you would also send me informations regarding findings of monthly RBA survey.

    Regards
    Eric

    • Staff
      BelindaFebruary 26, 2016Staff

      Hi Eric,

      Thanks for getting in touch.

      On this page, you can view the RBA Cash Rate Target Announcements for each month from February 2015 until February 2016. You can also view the commentary of our resident rate experts in the lead up to each Board meeting which occurs on the first Tuesday of every month (except January).

      Please feel free to sign up to receive our detailed RBA cash rate updates by completing the form provided above.

      Regards,
      Belinda

  4. Default Gravatar
    SyedDecember 8, 2015

    Hi,
    My new house is ready now and wondering what is the best time to sell, should I put my house in the market now or January or wait for the February. I am not committed any where so I can wait.

    Your advise needed.

    Thanks

    • Staff
      BelindaDecember 9, 2015Staff

      Hi Syed,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      As finder.com.au is an online comparison service so we are not licensed to give you personal advice regarding the best time to sell your property.

      You can read our guide here about considerations when selling your house.

      All the best,
      Belinda

  5. Default Gravatar
    loooooolAugust 16, 2015

    hello.
    i wonder if i could receive some information regarding not only the latest current economic situation, but also cash rate movements over the year.

    • Staff
      BelindaAugust 17, 2015Staff

      Hi Dongho,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      Above on this page you can view the ‘Reserve Bank monthly announcements’ to read about the cash rate movements and monetary policy decisions that have occurred over the course of this year. You can also sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates by filling in the form provided above.

      In regards to the current economic situation, finder.com.au is an online comparative website and we can’t comment on the activity of the broader Australian economy.

      Thanks,
      Belinda

  6. Default Gravatar
    OliJuly 17, 2015

    Can you please send through the information on the RBA via email?
    I’m doing a school Economic assignment on the RBA and financial markets

    • Staff
      BelindaJuly 17, 2015Staff

      Hi Oli,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      I’ve emailed you with some information regarding the findings from our monthly RBA survey.

      Please note that on this page you can sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates.

      Thanks,
      Belinda

  7. Default Gravatar
    yazminJuly 7, 2015

    Hi,

    I was just wondering if I could have information regarding how interests rates will unfold over the next year. In particular, if the current interest rates will be appropriate for the economic conditions in Australia.

    Thank you
    Yazmin

    • Staff
      BelindaJuly 8, 2015Staff

      Hi Yazmin,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      Firstly, I’d like to point out that finder.com.au is an online comparison and general information service so we’re not in a position to forecast interest rates.

      However, on this page you can sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates which you might find useful.

      Thanks,
      Belinda

  8. Default Gravatar
    JeffJune 22, 2015

    I also would like to know what the RBA is likely to do with interest rates over the next 12 months or at least material to allow me to make my own assessment please.

    thank you

    Jeff S

    • Staff
      JodieJune 22, 2015Staff

      Hi Jeff,

      I have emailed you the information we sent to others people who have asked us regarding the RBA.

      Regards
      Jodie

  9. Default Gravatar
    TJJune 17, 2015

    Hi,

    I also would like to know what the RBA is likely to do with interest rates over the next 12 months

    Regards

    • Staff
      JodieJune 17, 2015Staff

      Hi TJ,

      Thank you for making contact with finder.com.au, an online comparison website.

      I have sent through to you via email the same information regarding the RBA predictions that was sent to Patrick by mu colleague Belinda, I hope this helps.

      Regards
      Jodie

  10. Default Gravatar
    HiJune 12, 2015

    What is the RBA likely to do with interest rates within; 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, and 18 months timeframes.

    Refer to movement in interest rates (up, down or no change) and provide reasons.

    • Staff
      BelindaJune 15, 2015Staff

      Hi Patrick,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      I’ve sent you an email with some information and findings from our monthly Reserve Bank Survey.

      Kind regards,
      Belinda

    • Default Gravatar
      HiJune 15, 2015

      Hi Belinda,
      Thanks for your assistance! I found it quite useful.

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