RBA Cash Rate

Expert analysis on the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate decisions

hold

0.75%

Cash rate hold

The RBA held the cash rate at 0.75% on 03 Dec 2019

Finder surveys over 40 economists and property experts every month to evaluate the future of the RBA's cash rate decision. Experts also provide commentary on the current state of the property market and the Australian economy and their predictions for the cash rate's future. This page contains recent cash rate analysis and predictions for the next rate decision. We update the page with new forecasts at the end of the month and again on the first Tuesday of the month, when the board of the Reserve Bank meets to make its decision.

Skip ahead to read the latest analysis, see how the cash rate has changed over time and learn more about how the cash rate affects you.

97%of our resident rate experts

correctly predicted the cash rate to hold at 0.75% on Tuesday 3 December 2019 View forecasts →

Next meeting: 2:30pm 4 February 2020

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The latest cash rate analysis from the experts

Here are the most recent cash rate predictions and commentary from the experts in our panel.

November
HOLD
December
HOLD
Monetary policy sensitive / now rates are slow - to what fiscal policies might be introduced. And they should be.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
The economy will be growing at a solid pace and inflation will be touching 2%.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
The RBA are waiting to see impact of past actions.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
For now, it is likely rates will remain on hold. We have had three cuts in quick succession and so far the economic response has been muted. At this stage, it is likely that rates will be cut in February however it will depend on data coming out over summer.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
The latest economic news must have disappointed the RBA. The jobless rate is rising, employment is falling and wages growth is declining. This means another interest rate cut is on the cards, but the RBA is likely until next February.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
The RBA is clearly considering further easing of policy but has expressed a desire to evaluate the impact of rate cuts to date. There hasn't been any compelling data since the November meeting that would have changed this to the Bank and therefore a further cut early next year is to be expected as the data softens.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
RBA is waiting for further evidence on changes in components of GDP.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
Growth is likely to remain lower for longer keeping the economy away from full employment and the inflation target for even longer than the RBA is forecasting. As a result further easing is likely. The RBA should be cutting in December but appears inclined at this stage to continue to "wait and assess". Data to be released in the days prior to the December meeting could yet tip them over into a December easing though so its a close call.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
The two rate cuts of 2019 had the desired effect from a housing market perspective, but broader economic concerns remain. The RBA is conditioning us to expect low wage growth for the foreseeable future and household debt levels are at worrying highs. It was interesting to see how close the RBA came to cutting rates last month and we still feel the next move will be downward.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
The RBA's own forecasts have the unemployment rate remaining above full employment, so wage growth and inflation won't pick up without more expansionary monetary policy.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
Stability within the housing and employment markets.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
There is a high possibility that the RBA will not cut the cash rate in December 2019. The rate is low at 0.75% and some sectors such as housing appears to be rebounding, especially in the two major cities - Sydney and Melbourne. However, if this rebound does not translate into rising consumer spending and or investment activities, then we might see another rate cut around February 2020. Meanwhile if there is some form of fiscal stimulus, that might alleviate RBA's pressure to reduce the cash rate further next year.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
The minutes of the November monetary policy meeting suggest the RBA is in no rush to cut the cash rate a fourth time in 2019 given the length of time it takes for monetary policy stimulus to absorb into the economy. The Bank is likely to wait and see whether positive signs emerge from the economy before acting again. That being said, forecasts for wage growth, inflation and the labour market suggest that the Board may resort to cutting the cash rate once again in the new year.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
The RBA is likely to want to hold remaining rate cuts in reserves and wait to see how marco events play out including US election and impeachment, Brexit, AUD, property market stablisation, etc.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
I marginally expect that global economy growth will bottom out in mid-2020.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
Wages still not rising but with very little scope left for reductions the RBA will have to look at other levers (i.e. quantitative easing).
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
It is not clear that a rate cut is required but should the economy continue to soften, a rate cut is more likely in early 2020.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
The RBA clearly has an easing bias but it has the time to monitor economic data until next year before easing again.
 
November
HOLD
December
CUT
They are flying by the seat of their pants and making a show of how agonized they are about cutting rates. I've argued for about half a decade now that they should cut aggressively. By doing it in such an agonised way, they've thrown away the announcement effect and ironically probably made the asset bubble associated with low rates worse by creating much more of a one-way bet. Had they cut aggressively and restored strong growth the markets would be expecting interest rate rises – when no-one's expecting that now. | They didn't cut last time – so given that they don't want to look like they're lowering as fast as possible – while lowering as fast as possible – it suggests they'll cut AND They go on holiday for an additional month – the expected cost of that holiday might be a few hundred million dollars to the Australian economy as I argued here, but go on holiday they will.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
Housing prices have risen in major capitals recently and the exchange rate has been fairly steady since the last rate cut. Further cuts at this juncture would fuel property prices and may actually be counterproductive for business and household confidence.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
Expect the RBA to remain on hold until February or May 2020, when another cut to 1/2 % is likely. QE may be more effective, in the absence of fiscal stimulus.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
Weak jobs growth & a drop in breakeven inflation from 1.4 to 1.3% pa.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
I don't think the world is out of its financial problems yet.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
A February decision allows time for more data to enable to central bank to sense the way the prior cuts have impacted on the economy.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
Dec on-hold whilst assessing impact of 75bps of cuts to-date.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
A full assessment of the impact of recent cuts, in addition to progress on trade talks, may allow the RBA to wait until after the New Year.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
Australia's economy is failing to accelerate (again) in 2019-20. non-mining business investment remains especially weak, but it is sorely needed to boost our productivity growth and real incomes for all. in the absence of meaningful tax reform and micro-economic reform, another rate cut probably wont help much, but it is the only response that the RBA can offer.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
Given the cash rate is already at record low levels and the lacklustre economic response to the recent rate cuts, the RBA will hold steady this month and reassess conditions in the new year before cutting rates further.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
The RBA should adopt a hold position for the remainder of this calendar year. The downsides far outweigh the upsides for another rate cut at this time for the reasons I alluded to in my previous commentary. Ideally, rates won't go any lower, although they might, but this direction is unclear for now - this is why I have left open when a further rate movement may occur.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
RBA have given a clear easing bias but also that they are willing to wait and see the outcome from previous cuts, whilst giving the consumer time to digest the changes. Not a question of if but more so timing.
 
November
HOLD
December
HOLD
The RBA will wait on the hope that recent rate and tax cuts filter through to consumer spending and that the US and China will agree on a phase 1 trade agreement.
 

When will we see the bottom of the rate cycle?

When will we see the bottom of the rate cycle?

Most of the experts we surveyed think the RBA will cut the cash rate as low as 0.50%. But a few predict even lower.

Watch our latest Australian property market update

How has the cash rate changed over time?

The graph above shows the movement in the official cash rate target. A lower cash rate reduces the cost of borrowing money so more people are encouraged to borrow - stimulating the economy. Higher interest rates tend to encourage spending. This is how a rise or fall in rates affects the level of supply and demand and therefore the level of inflation - which the RBA wants to keep in the target range of 2%-3%.

What is the official cash rate and who sets it?

Once a month, the RBA board meets to decide whether to raise the cash rate, lower it or keep it the same. Their decision will be influenced by a wide range of factors including inflation, the performance of the Aussie dollar, the housing market, Australia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and levels of consumer confidence. The board will assess all of these factors in relation to the RBA's goals and objectives before reaching a consensus on what to do with the official cash rate.

The RBA's monetary policy aims to achieve three key objectives which are set out in the Reserve Bank Act 1959:

  • The stability of the currency of Australia;
  • The maintenance of full employment in Australia; and
  • The economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia.

In order to reach those objectives, the RBA sets an inflation target of 2-3% over the medium term. In other words, the RBA wants the Consumer Price Index (CPI, based on the average prices for a range of common goods and services) to increase by between 2 and 3 per cent each year.

The bank can control inflation by making adjustments to the official cash rate. For example, if inflation rises above the target rate it means that Australians are spending their money too freely and prices are increasing too rapidly. But if the RBA raises interest rates to make it more expensive to borrow money, the economy will settle and price increases will slow down. Conversely, the RBA will drop interest rates if inflation is too low and the economy is stagnating, encouraging more Australians to spend more money and stimulate economic growth.

How the cash rate can impact your finances

See how the cash rate changes can affect your savings, term deposits, home loans and what you can do about it.

If the rate rises

Ask your lender for a rate discount so that if rates do rise you won't be worse off, or alternatively, compare other variable or even fixed rate home loans to find a better deal.

If the rate gets cut

See how your lender responds to the cut. If they don't pass on the full rate cut, ask for a rate discount, and if you're still not happy start comparing what other deals are in the market. Some lenders have been known to pass on more than the official rate cut after an RBA announcement!

If the rate holds

Compare other variable rate home loans to make sure you're still getting the best deal. If rates are tipped to rise in the near future you may also want to compare fixed rates.

If the rate rises

Find an account which offers the same features and fees but with a better rate.

If the rate gets cut

Consider comparing a competitive term deposit rate so your interest earnings don't suffer.

If the rate holds

Carry out a quick comparison to make sure you're getting the best return on your money, see what promotions banks are offering.

If the rate rises

Your rate won't rise as you locked it in, so you can relax a little. If your fixed rate is soon to end, start comparing what deals are being offered so you don't find yourself scrambling to lock in another rate.

If the rate gets cut

If you feel your home loan is no longer competitive, you might want to obtain a quote from your lender to find out possible exit costs. If this figure is reasonable, you might want to consider comparing variable home loans. Use our switching costs calculator to see if you'd save.

If the rate holds

Because your rate is fixed for an agreed period of time, a decision by the RBA to hold won't have as much of an effect on you depending on how long you still have to go in your fixed term. As mentioned above, you might still want to monitor the other deals in the market to keep informed.

If the rate rises

If rates rise, savings accounts rates could be increased as well. If this happens, you might want to compare the rates of high interest savings accounts. Remember that most term deposits have interest penalties if you withdraw your funds early, so keep this in mind.

If the rate gets cut

Your rate won't change because it's locked in, but if you're nearing the end of your term start comparing both high interest savings accounts and term deposits to find a good deal.

If the rate holds

Compare accounts and ensure you're aware of what's being offered in the market.

Check out Finder's RBA survey press releases

RBA news and announcements

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46 Responses

  1. Default Gravatar
    octoJune 18, 2018

    how long can AUD interest rate remain Low…..?

    how soon will the AUD follow the US FED Rate Hike…….?

    thank you

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      NikkiJune 20, 2018Staff

      Hi Octo!

      Thanks for getting in touch!

      To know more information on your questions, you can fill in your email address in the box provided and you’ll be updated on RBA’s decisions on the official cash rate target.

      While we provide you with general information, please know that we don’t stand as a representation for RBA or any company featured on our site.

      Hope that clarifies!

      Cheers,
      Nikki

  2. Default Gravatar
    TaneeshaMay 24, 2018

    Do you think the cash rate will stay the same at the June RBA meeting?

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      JoshuaMay 24, 2018Staff

      Hi Taneesha,

      Thanks for getting in touch with finder. I hope all is well for you. :)

      Unfortunately, we are not in the best place to make a prediction. However, you might get an idea whether the RBA cash rate will rise or fall by looking at the factors that affect it. These factors may include:

      – Household debt
      – Inflation
      – Wage growth
      – Consumer Confidence Index
      – Unemployment

      I hope this helps. Should you have further questions, please don’t hesitate to reach us out again.

      Have a wonderful day!

      Cheers,
      Joshua

  3. Default Gravatar
    BrookMay 5, 2018

    What do you think that how the international economic condition influence the cash rate?

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      JeniMay 6, 2018Staff

      Hi Brook,

      Thank you for getting in touch with finder.

      This is nice question. Domestic financial conditions remain expansionary. There has been some tightening in short-term
      money markets, which has flowed through to a small increase in funding costs for a range of financial institutions and businesses. However, borrowing rates remain low for households and businesses. Growth in housing credit has eased since mid last year, particularly for credit extended to investors, while growth in business debt has remained moderate. The Australian dollar remains within its narrow range of the past two years. Financial market prices suggest that the cash rate is expected to remain unchanged this year and to increase around mid 2019. If you are eager to learn more about the domestic financial condition according to RBA, please check out this link.

      I hope this helps.

      Have a great day!

      Cheers,
      Jeni

  4. Default Gravatar
    RobJune 11, 2017

    What do you think will be the next move for RBA on cash rate and when?

    Thank you!

    • Default Gravatar
      JonathanJune 11, 2017

      Hi Rob!

      Thanks for the comment.

      As of the moment, most of resident rate experts predict that rates will be the same. The cash rate target is released on the first Tuesday of every month except January.

      You can follow the updated forecast right here.

      Hope this helps.

      Cheers,
      Jonathan

    • Default Gravatar
      RobJune 11, 2017

      Thanks Jonathan, I meant in the longer term, 6-12 months.

    • Default Gravatar
      JonathanJune 11, 2017

      Hi Rob!

      We appreciate your follow-up.

      Currently, there are multiple factors that need to be considered and due to the volatility of these factors, it is a bit hard to conclude whether they’ll leave the rates unchanged for the next few months or not.

      If you have further inquiries, you may contact:

      Media and Communications
      Secretary’s Department
      Reserve Bank of Australia
      SYDNEY
      Phone: +61 2 9551 9720
      Fax: +61 2 9551 8033
      Email: rbainfo@rba.gov.au

      Hope this helps.

      Cheers,
      Jonathan

  5. Default Gravatar
    JulieSeptember 1, 2016

    When do you think the RBA will start raising rates?

    • Default Gravatar
      JodieSeptember 7, 2016

      Hi Julie,

      Thank you for contacting finder.com.au we are a financial comparison website and general information service.

      It is hard to predict the movement of the cash rate as it is based on a multitude of factors that are continually changing however 7 out of the 38 experts we surveyed in our latest RBA survey for September 2016 said they predict it will start going up in July 2017 or beyond.

      Regards
      Jodie

  6. Default Gravatar
    EricFebruary 25, 2016

    Hi Belinda

    Appreciate if you would also send me informations regarding findings of monthly RBA survey.

    Regards
    Eric

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaFebruary 26, 2016Staff

      Hi Eric,

      Thanks for getting in touch.

      On this page, you can view the RBA Cash Rate Target Announcements for each month from February 2015 until February 2016. You can also view the commentary of our resident rate experts in the lead up to each Board meeting which occurs on the first Tuesday of every month (except January).

      Please feel free to sign up to receive our detailed RBA cash rate updates by completing the form provided above.

      Regards,
      Belinda

  7. Default Gravatar
    SyedDecember 8, 2015

    Hi,
    My new house is ready now and wondering what is the best time to sell, should I put my house in the market now or January or wait for the February. I am not committed any where so I can wait.

    Your advise needed.

    Thanks

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaDecember 9, 2015Staff

      Hi Syed,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      As finder.com.au is an online comparison service so we are not licensed to give you personal advice regarding the best time to sell your property.

      You can read our guide here about considerations when selling your house.

      All the best,
      Belinda

  8. Default Gravatar
    loooooolAugust 16, 2015

    hello.
    i wonder if i could receive some information regarding not only the latest current economic situation, but also cash rate movements over the year.

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaAugust 17, 2015Staff

      Hi Dongho,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      Above on this page you can view the ‘Reserve Bank monthly announcements’ to read about the cash rate movements and monetary policy decisions that have occurred over the course of this year. You can also sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates by filling in the form provided above.

      In regards to the current economic situation, finder.com.au is an online comparative website and we can’t comment on the activity of the broader Australian economy.

      Thanks,
      Belinda

  9. Default Gravatar
    OliJuly 17, 2015

    Can you please send through the information on the RBA via email?
    I’m doing a school Economic assignment on the RBA and financial markets

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaJuly 17, 2015Staff

      Hi Oli,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      I’ve emailed you with some information regarding the findings from our monthly RBA survey.

      Please note that on this page you can sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates.

      Thanks,
      Belinda

  10. Default Gravatar
    yazminJuly 7, 2015

    Hi,

    I was just wondering if I could have information regarding how interests rates will unfold over the next year. In particular, if the current interest rates will be appropriate for the economic conditions in Australia.

    Thank you
    Yazmin

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaJuly 8, 2015Staff

      Hi Yazmin,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      Firstly, I’d like to point out that finder.com.au is an online comparison and general information service so we’re not in a position to forecast interest rates.

      However, on this page you can sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates which you might find useful.

      Thanks,
      Belinda

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