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RBA cash rate

Are interest rates going up or down? What will the next RBA interest rate decision be? Get the latest cash rate predictions and insights from 40+ experts.

The Reserve Bank of Australia sets the official cash rate target. This is a benchmark rate that has a big impact on home loan interest rates, savings accounts and other credit products.

The official cash rate is currently:

4.35%

The RBA's next interest rate decision is on:

10 December 2024

Of the experts surveyed by Finder for November:

100% correctly predicted the cash rate would hold.

Graham Cooke

Graham Cooke - Head of consumer research

The good news is that inflation is falling and it's getting close to the RBA's target. But it doesn't look like we'll get a rate cut this side of Christmas. A cut early next year looks more likely.

Finder money experts
Insights and analysis by Richard Whitten, Rebecca Pike and Graham Cooke – Finder money experts

Why you can trust our research

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The latest cash rate analysis from the experts

Finder regularly surveys 40+ economists and property experts to forecast the RBA's next cash rate decision and get insights into the future of the Australian economy. Here are the most recent cash rate predictions.

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
There is no evidence that Australia is getting inflation under control. With a federal election due in less than six months you can bet they'll be huge spending from the current government between now and election day. On top are promises from both the government and the opposition that they will embark on major building projects to solve the housing crisis. Talk to any builder and they'll tell you there's massive problems with costs and getting skilled labour. I don't see inflation dropping in these conditions.

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
I believe the Reserve Bank will keep the cash rate on hold in November. ABS data shows that underlying inflation remains higher than desired, and the labour market recorded a strong rise in employment in September, which could put upward pressure on inflation. While the next time rates move, they’re expected to go down, borrowers might have to wait a few more months to see this change.

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
Australia since COVID has lagged peer nations

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
The quarterly inflation data continued the pleasing trend of moderating inflation in line with our forecast of rate cuts next year, but not sufficient progress with core inflation to change our view that the first cut is most likely in May. It would be helpful if that first cut is 35bp to an even 4 %

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
Inflation is easing in line with expectations with headline breaking into the upper end of the RBA’s target range in the Sept-24 quarter. However, persistent labour market tightness limits the RBA’s flexibility to ease. Holiday season spending could indicate whether demand is sustainably strong or just temporary, impacting RBA’s rate plans well into 2025.

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
Prices continue to rise beyond desired levels, and with the labour market remaining strong, rate cuts are unlikely before 2025.

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
Headline and underlying inflation easing, though not yet within target range

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
Higher for longer remains the watchword for the cash rate. September did see falls in both the headline and core inflation rates. However, the core rate is still outside the target band, the labour market is still fairly strong and public spending remains elevated. With a federal election likely in the first half of next year, it's hard to see a spending cut any time soon.

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
Q3 2024 headline inflation fell to 2.8%, inside the RBA’s target range. Core inflation also fell to reach 3.5%, just above the range. Inflation expectations of consumers and business remain anchored in the range. While these outcomes are consistent with a monetary policy pivot in November, the RBA is likely to remain cautious. There is a growing downside risk of further delay.

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
Monthly inflation readings since last quarterly CPI announcement have fallen precipitously. Assuming these monthly reductions are reflected in the next quarterly CPI report, then quarterly CPI inflation may well show a return to the RBA's target 2-3% range. The RBA will be keen to inject some confidence in the run-up to the important Christmas trading period. The most effective way to do this, while obtaining maximum confirmation of the downward inflation trend, is to hold in November but signal intention to reduce in December and then follow-through on this signal. Any reductions will be limited by continued upward pressure on house prices and full employment.

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
Despite headline inflation falling to 2.8%, underlying inflation remains elevated at 3.5%, driven by persistent price pressures in services and housing. A strong jobs market and steady wage growth add further inflationary pressure, making the RBA cautious about easing too soon. Temporary government rebates on energy and lower fuel costs are masking core inflation, making a rate cut unlikely until early 2025. For real estate markets, this means demand is expected to stay steady, listings will continue to grow and this will see price growth moderate further.

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
Although headline inflation has dropped within the RBA’s target band, the trimmed mean measure is still above 3%. I suspect the RBA will keep the cash rate where it is until the trimmed mean has come down further.

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
The first RBA rate cut has now been pushed out due to our relatively strong economy strong job creation and low unemployment levels. While a rate cut by the end of 2024 is possible, it's more likely to occur in early 2025, depending heavily on inflation and employment metrics.

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
They should probably cut now, but they're being 'careful' (as they see it.)

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
The September quarter 'underlying' inflation numbers were in line with the RBA's expectations and not 'good' enough to give it the confidence it needs that underlying inflation is heading 'sustainably' back to its target band to justify cutting rates in either November or December. However the December quarter CPI numbers due in late January should be good enough to allow for a rate cut in February.

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
Inflation is likely still too high to see the RBA cutting in November. But it is falling and likely to continue to do so resulting in a start to rate cuts in February next year. A December cut is still possible but would need to see a further sharp fall in underlying inflation in October monthly data along with a renewed rise in unemployment.

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
The September quarter CPI inflation rate fell to 2.8%, the lowest since March 2021, and this marks the first time inflation is within the RBA’s target range of 2-3%. However, it’s premature to consider a rate cut at this stage, particularly with the RBA board not meeting in January.

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
The labour market is in satisfactory shape but inflation is proving "sticky"

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
Inflation down to 2.8 percent. RBA likely to wait for more data before cutting.

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
We're not moving anywhere! ...for now! The forecasts from all my models indicate a decisive HOLD for November. They also indicate a slight downward pressure for the coming months. I interpret these predictions as a clear expectation of cuts in the cash rate but at an uncertain horizon. Forecasting the breakpoint is always tricky, and the upcoming data announcements will play a decisive role in shaping the forecasted trajectories in the following months. You can access these forecasts at https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
While many consumers will be hoping for a rate cut prior to Christmas it appears the RBA is set on waiting for a consistent downward trend in inflation to materialise. The signs are there though, so a rate reduction is warranted in the near term.

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
The latest fall in inflation will be good news but the RBA will wait longer to see that falls in inflation are entrenched. A weakening economy will see rate cuts sooner, but more likely first half of next year will see first rate cut.

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
While inflation is trending down, its still higher than where it needs to be. I think the RBA will want to wait to see if it falls further in the fourth quarter

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
Inflation and labour market strength.

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
The RBA will look through the temporary fall in headline CPI due to energy rebates and will want to see progress on underlying inflation. If that progress happens for Q3 and labour market indicators start surprising on the downside, they could start cutting in December. But I expect the first cut will be February. I also think there will only be about three cuts in 2025 unless conditions deteriorate rapidly. The more likely scenario is a weak, but growing economy for which the RBA will want to test what the neutral level of interests rates is before cutting too far below somewhere in the 3.35-3.84% range.

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
Whilst inflaltion is getting under control we are not really seeing it reducing as fast as the RBA would like. On top of this is tat the RBA is always a little slow when it comes to reducing rates, so a cut in the short term is unlikley.

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
Inflation has come down a bit and the economic activity is steady at the moment

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
Core inflation is homegrown and persistent.

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
The good news is that latest CPI number is within the RBA's band. Moreover, this decline was expected by the market. However since other measures of CPI that exclude the more volatile items are still outside the band, RBA may wait before lowering rates.

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
We’re trending in the right direction as CPI inflation eases to 2.8%, marking a return to the RBA’s target range of 2%-3%. However, underlying inflation remains at 3.5% so the decision to hold still remains likely.

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
Inflation will be increasingly sticky given embeded factors: excise indexation, rapid populaiton growth leading to house price and rental price growth, labour shortages.

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
Inflation preferred measure still above target range

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
I have been bearish on the direction of interest rates for quite some time now because (as I have been consistently saying) Federal Government spending is effectively pushing/keeping up the price of goods and services in this country. This view has now been independently vindicated by the IMF which recently published its forecast for Australia's headline inflation rate over the next year or so - and its not a pretty read. The IMF is forecasting inflation to stay above 3% throughout 2025, and hit a peak of 3.6% Further, its forecast indicates Australia will have the second highest inflation rate among the world's advanced economies. For this reason I cannot see interest rates in Australia falling any time soon and there is the real possibility we won't see downward movement until 2026.

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
Weak growth, low inflation, rising unemployment.

October
HOLD
November
HOLD
Inflation seems to be more in line with the target band however there is still stress in housing costs as well as food at the supermarket. By cutting too early the RBA potentially lights a match for the property market with renewed confidence which in turn could lead to further inflation in that sector. I also believe that cutting pre-Christmas would be an invitation for people to spend as the first cut will be a psychological barrier that is removed for a lot of households. We are certainly seeing more confidence amongst our client base.

October
N/A
November
HOLD
We've just received Sep 24 quarter inflation data and although headline inflation is back in the target range largely due to temporary cost-of-living relief, underlying inflation at +0.8% for the quarter is still growing too fast to reach the 2% to 3% target range. Underlying inflation also hasn't printed below +0.8% since Jun 21 so I can't see a situation whereby this print materially changes the outlook for interest rates.

October
N/A
November
HOLD
Headline inflation will fall sharply in the Q3 print, but the RBA's focus will be on the trimmed mean measure. Unit labour cost growth is still too high for them to start cutting rates.

October
N/A
November
HOLD
RBA is steadfast on commitment to getting inflation back into their preferred range and don’t wish to reignite the pressures

October
N/A
November
HOLD
With the Q3 CPI showing trimmed mean inflation in line with what we infer to have been the RBA’s forecast, we expect another shift towards a neutral stance at the meeting. The longer the data continue to print in line with the RBA’s expectations, the more likely a rate cut becomes, given the trajectory of the RBA’s own inflation forecasts. The extent to which the Board moves to neutral (or further) at today’s meeting will provide a guide to how forward-looking policy may be over the next stage of the cycle. We don’t expect the Board to explicitly consider an increase in the cash rate, nor do we expect it to explicitly consider a reduction just yet, although that point is approaching.

What is the official cash rate?

One of the Reserve Bank's primary roles is setting monetary policy for the Australian economy. This involves setting the cash rate (or to use its full name, the official cash rate target).

At a technical level, the cash rate is actually the interest rate banks pay for borrowing money from each other overnight. Banks use this to manage liquidity and issue funds as needed.

Australian banks can borrow and deposit money with the RBA at just below the current cash rate target.

How the official cash rate target affects interest rates

But for the average Australian consumer, the cash rate is really useful as a broad benchmark for the interest rates on home loans and savings accounts. A high cash rate makes borrowing money more expensive and sees home loan repayments rise.

A low cash rate makes it cheaper to borrow money. This boosts borrowing and spending.

How has the cash rate changed over time?

The Reserve Bank adjusts the official cash rate target over time in response to various economic data, including:

  • Inflation
  • The unemployment rate
  • Global economic factors

The cash rate stayed at the then record low of 1.50% from 2016 to 2019, when the RBA lowered it further in response to low inflation and slightly higher unemployment.

Then as the Covid-19 pandemic began to hurt the Australian economy the RBA dropped the cash rate even further. This was to make borrowing cheaper and stimulate a struggling economy. The cash rate hit the record low of 0.10% during this time.

Now, with inflation soaring the RBA has lifted the cash rate very quickly to try to slow demand and curb price rises.

The graph on the left below shows movements in the official cash rate over time. And the graph on the right shows the market's lowest home loan rates. You can see how the market responds by raising or lowering rates broadly in line with the RBA's decisions.

How does the RBA's cash rate decisions affect your finances?

The RBA can do 3 things with the cash rate: Raise, lower or hold the cash rate at its current level.

Raise

If the RBA lifts the cash rate

When the cash rate rises, most lenders pass on the rate rise to borrowers on variable rate home loans.

If the cash rate rises by 25 basis points, then most borrowers will see 25 basis points added to their home loan's interest rate.

If you have a fixed rate home loan nothing changes. Your rate is locked in for the duration of the fixed period.

Banks may also increase interest rates on term deposits and high interest savings accounts. But in practice home loan rates rise faster than savings account rates.

Down

If the RBA lowers the cash rate

When the RBA lowers the cash rate, most lenders pass on some if not all of the cut to borrowers on variable rate home loans.

Banks also lower rates on savings accounts and other products.

If you have a home loan, it's a good idea to check if your lender has actually passed on the rate cut to you. If it hasn't, you may need to switch.

Hold

If the RBA holds the cash rate

A hold decision means the cash rate isn't changing this month. This means that your home loan or savings account rate likely won't change. You don't really have to do anything.

But banks and lenders change interest rates all the time for various reasons even if the RBA doesn't move the cash rate.

Calculate how much a cash rate rise will impact your home loan repayments

What is your repayment type?
What is your remaining loan amount?
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What is your current interest rate?
%
How much is your rate going up by?
%
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With a new interest rate of , your monthly repayments will increase by .
You could save a year based on Finder's lowest refinance interest rate of
Compare your options in under a minute.

Enter your loan amount, current interest rate and the latest cash rate increase to quickly estimate how much your monthly repayments will increase.

Example: how changes to the cash rate can change your loan repayments

You have a $600,000 home loan with a variable interest rate of 6.00%. It's a 30-year loan term with principal-and-interest repayments.

Your monthly repayments are $3,598.

⬆️ If the cash rate rises by 25 basis points your interest rate would increase to 6.25%. Your monthly repayments would now be $3,695. This would cost you an extra $97 a month or $1,164 a year.

⬇️ If the cash rate decreases by 25 basis points your interest rate would fall to 5.75%. Your monthly repayments would now be $3,502. This would save you $96 a month or $1,152 a year.

More questions about the RBA cash rate

Check out more RBA news and Finder's RBA survey press releases

RBA news and announcements

Finder's RBA Press Releases

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Editor

Richard Whitten is a money editor at Finder, and has been covering home loans, property and personal finance for 6+ years. He has written for Yahoo Finance, Money Magazine and Homely; and has appeared on various radio shows nationwide. He holds a Certificate IV in mortgage broking and finance (RG 206), a Tier 1 Generic Knowledge certification and a Tier 2 General Advice Deposit Products (RG 146) certification. See full bio

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48 Responses

    Default Gravatar
    CuteyJune 16, 2022

    When the RBA decreases the cash rate , does it mean it prints more money to increase money supply and thereby decreasing the borrowing rate. And if that is the case, does increasing the cash rate mean that the RBA has to extinguish some of the money supply thereby reducing the money available to borrow. I am assuming that RBA can’t just simply say the cash rate is this much, it has to increase/decrease money supply at the backend to make sure the cash rate stays at whatever level it wants to stay at.

      AvatarFinder
      RichardJune 18, 2022Finder

      Hi,

      The cash rate determines the interest rate lenders can charge when lending money to each other at short notice (also called the overnight cash rate). Lenders and banks are always moving money around to cover different investments and expenses, including funding for home loans.

      So the cash rate affects their costs, and they pass this onto borrowers. Changing the cash rate target does nothing to the amount of money in the economy. It affects the cost of borrowing and lending money.

      The RBA does in effect create money sometimes, in a process called quantitative easing. This involves purchasing bonds from investors at a favourable rate, freeing up investor cash to go elsewhere in the economy. This is different to the cash rate.

      I hope this helps.

      Regards,
      Richard

    Default Gravatar
    octoJune 18, 2018

    how long can AUD interest rate remain Low…..?

    how soon will the AUD follow the US FED Rate Hike…….?

    thank you

      Default Gravatar
      NikkiJune 20, 2018

      Hi Octo!

      Thanks for getting in touch!

      To know more information on your questions, you can fill in your email address in the box provided and you’ll be updated on RBA’s decisions on the official cash rate target.

      While we provide you with general information, please know that we don’t stand as a representation for RBA or any company featured on our site.

      Hope that clarifies!

      Cheers,
      Nikki

    Default Gravatar
    TaneeshaMay 24, 2018

    Do you think the cash rate will stay the same at the June RBA meeting?

      AvatarFinder
      JoshuaMay 24, 2018Finder

      Hi Taneesha,

      Thanks for getting in touch with finder. I hope all is well for you. :)

      Unfortunately, we are not in the best place to make a prediction. However, you might get an idea whether the RBA cash rate will rise or fall by looking at the factors that affect it. These factors may include:

      – Household debt
      – Inflation
      – Wage growth
      – Consumer Confidence Index
      – Unemployment

      I hope this helps. Should you have further questions, please don’t hesitate to reach us out again.

      Have a wonderful day!

      Cheers,
      Joshua

    Default Gravatar
    BrookMay 5, 2018

    What do you think that how the international economic condition influence the cash rate?

      AvatarFinder
      JeniMay 6, 2018Finder

      Hi Brook,

      Thank you for getting in touch with Finder.

      This is a nice question. Domestic financial conditions remain expansionary. There has been some tightening in short-term
      money markets, which has flowed through to a small increase in funding costs for a range of financial institutions and businesses. However, borrowing rates remain low for households and businesses. Growth in housing credit has eased since mid last year, particularly for credit extended to investors, while growth in business debt has remained moderate. The Australian dollar remains within its narrow range of the past two years. Financial market prices suggest that the cash rate is expected to remain unchanged this year and to increase around mid 2019. If you are eager to learn more about the domestic financial condition according to RBA, refer to the Domestic Economic Conditions file.

      I hope this helps.

      Have a great day!

      Cheers,
      Jeni

    Default Gravatar
    RobJune 11, 2017

    What do you think will be the next move for RBA on cash rate and when?

    Thank you!

      Default Gravatar
      JonathanJune 11, 2017

      Hi Rob!

      Thanks for the comment.

      As of the moment, most of resident rate experts predict that rates will be the same. The cash rate target is released on the first Tuesday of every month except January.

      You can follow the updated RBA forecast through our website.

      Hope this helps.

      Cheers,
      Jonathan

      Default Gravatar
      RobJune 11, 2017

      Thanks Jonathan, I meant in the longer term, 6-12 months.

      Default Gravatar
      JonathanJune 11, 2017

      Hi Rob!

      We appreciate your follow-up.

      Currently, there are multiple factors that need to be considered and due to the volatility of these factors, it is a bit hard to conclude whether they’ll leave the rates unchanged for the next few months or not.

      If you have further inquiries, you may contact:

      Media and Communications
      Secretary’s Department
      Reserve Bank of Australia
      SYDNEY
      Phone: +61 2 9551 9720
      Fax: +61 2 9551 8033
      Email: rbainfo@rba.gov.au

      Hope this helps.

      Cheers,
      Jonathan

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