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RBA cash rate survey
Expert analysis on the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate decisions
Last updated:
- 53% of our experts correctly predicted a second cash rate cut in March 2020 following an emergency meeting of the Reserve Bank. Learn more here.
In the previous survey, 15% of our rate experts correctly predicted a cut to the rate on Tuesday 3 March 2020, while 85% of our resident rate experts predicted a hold.
Which lenders are passing on the RBA's cut? See the full list
Next rate meeting: The board of the Reserve Bank will meet again on 07 April 2020 to decide the future of the cash rate.
Finder surveys over 40 economists and property experts every month to evaluate the future of the RBA's cash rate decision. Experts also provide commentary on the current state of the property market and the Australian economy and their predictions for the cash rate's future. This page contains recent cash rate analysis and predictions for the next rate decision. We update the page with new forecasts at the end of the month and again on the first Tuesday of the month, when the board of the Reserve Bank meets to make its decision.
Skip ahead to read the latest analysis, see how the cash rate has changed over time and learn more about how the cash rate affects you.
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The latest cash rate analysis from the experts
Please note that the following comments and predictions relate to the first March cut on Tuesday 3rd. There was a second, surprise cut on the 19th.
Besa Deda
Besa Deda
February
HOLDMarch
CUTIn the absence of wage pressures, inflation remains well below target. More stimulus is required to return growth to trend.
Bill Evans
Bill Evans
February
HOLDMarch
HOLD
Alison Booth
Alison Booth
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDAlthough the prospects for the Australian economy are not looking good, I think the RBA will hold. In my opinion, the governments should be doing more in terms of fiscal policy and I suspect the RBA shares this view.
Stephen Koukoulas
Stephen Koukoulas
February
CUTMarch
HOLDIt will want to guard against asset price rises
Nerida Conisbee
Nerida Conisbee
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDThe biggest risk to economic growth right now is the coronavirus. If Chinese economic growth plummets for more than one quarter, this will hit the Australian economy. Already our tourism and education sectors are being hit due to their reliance on Chinese consumers. We don't have much room for movement with interest rates and if things start to get bad, we likely only have one or two cuts left. It is likely that May's Federal budget will be far more interesting than last year and the Government may need to give up their surplus.
Michael Yardney
Michael Yardney
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDThe Reserve Bank will be disappointed with the latest unemployment figures but is likely to hold off cutting rates in fear of adding fuel to the already strong property markets
Dr Andrew Wilson
Dr Andrew Wilson
February
HOLDMarch
CUTJobless falling, wages growth still low and growing concerns over economic impact of coronavirus
Dr Craig Emerson
Dr Craig Emerson
February
CUTMarch
HOLDNot much ammunition left and the RBA considers fiscal policy should provide stimulus.
Shane Oliver
Shane Oliver
February
HOLDMarch
CUTThe next move is likely to be a cut in EITHER March or April. I don’t have a strong view which one it is and its not a big deal which one it is either. The coronavirus outbreak coming on the back of the bushfires is likely to see the economy go backwards this quarter which in turn is likely to push unemployment up further after the rise to 5.3% seen in January. Growth should rebound in the March quarter but given the uncertainty around Covid-19 and its impact globally there is much uncertainty around that and given we are so far from full employment and the inflation target the RBA is likely to take cut the cash rate again in the months ahead.
Leanne Pilkington
Leanne Pilkington
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDFrom an ease in the bushfire crisis to a rise in the coronavirus threat, there are economic challenges in addition to the health and safety challenges to be faced, and the impacts of these are not yet fully known. Maintaining the hold pattern at this time of significant uncertainty seems appropriate.
Trent Wiltshire
Trent Wiltshire
February
CUTMarch
CUTThe RBA is reluctant to cut rates further as it is worried that house price rises will accelerate. But the soft labour force figures combined with the escalating shock from the Coronavirus means the RBA will be forced to lower the cash rate.
Christine Williams
Christine Williams
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDWe are not due for a Federal Election for another 12 months, therefor the rise will occur at least 6 months prior.
Mala Raghavan
Mala Raghavan
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDThe recent unprecedented bushfire and the coronavirus outbreak means detrimental effects on the Australian economy. Trade, tourism and education sectors are the hardest hit. In addition, the global economic uncertainty and the gloomy world economic outlook, will drive down domestic household and business confidence and investments. Given these scenarios, there is a high possibility that the RBA will bring down the cash rate as low as 0.5% around July.
Susan Mitchell
Susan Mitchell
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDA further reduction to the cash rate is a question of when, not if. That being said, recent data suggests there may not be enough reason to warrant a cut in March as the benefits would not be sufficient enough to offset the risk of doing so. The latest Labour Force data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that the unemployment rate rose in January, following better than expected results the month prior. Further, the December quarter Wage Price Index revealed that subdued wage growth persists. On the other hand, housing market data suggests the housing market continues to benefit from the historic low interest rate environment. The latest data from the ABS showed a rise in the value of home loan approvals in the month of December. Further, the low-interest rate environment continues to stimulate housing values, with CoreLogic figures revealing national dwelling values rose 0.9% in January. RBA Board members would be wary that another cut to the cash rate may put further upward pressure on the already high cost of housing.
Mark Brimble
Mark Brimble
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDThe impact of ongoing national and global events is still being determined, while the economy continues to be largely stagnant, thus suggesting more support is required.
Angela Jackson
Angela Jackson
February
HOLDMarch
CUTThe duel impact of the coronavirus and the summer bush fires have undermined the economic recovery of late 2019, and in the absent of fiscal stimulus the RBA will need to move to cut rates further. On balance I think there is enough information for them to move in March, but they may wait until April.
Jeffrey Sheen
Jeffrey Sheen
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDRBA is likely to wait to see the effects on the economy of the recent natural disasters (fire, flood, epidemic)
John Rolfe
John Rolfe
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDI believe the RBA will hold off as long as possible to reduce further but will be forced to do so as I do not believe employment and wage growth will be strong enough to drive up retail spending.
Tim Nelson
Tim Nelson
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDMore time will be required for the RBA to assess whether current settings are on track for full employment.
Nicholas Gruen
Nicholas Gruen
February
HOLDMarch
CUTCoronavirus will begin to weigh on our economy
Tony Makin
Tony Makin
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDThe weakness of the dollar combined with the metropolitan property market rebound suggest a hold decision at the March meeting. However, if COVID19 is not contained, its impact on global supply chains significantly worsens (with domestic unemployment rising), a rate cut becomes highly likely in May, or even before, in April.
David Robertson
David Robertson
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDAnother RBA rate cut remains likely in H1, although the timing is subject to a range of factors that remain fluid. The latest jobs data was weaker than hoped, and COVID-19 global concerns are rising, so another cut is expected.
Geoffrey Kingston
Geoffrey Kingston
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDSupport economy in the face of the coronavirus
Jason Azzopardi
Jason Azzopardi
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDRBA Minutes
Noel Whittaker
Noel Whittaker
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDI think rates have bottomed - there is so much uncertainty right now
Jonathan Chancellor
Jonathan Chancellor
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDThe central bank will want to sit and watch the economy for another month or two before cutting.
Malcolm Wood
Malcolm Wood
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDSluggish growth and below target inflation
Nicholas Frappell
Nicholas Frappell
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDThe very slight rise in unemployment doesn't reflect the impact of bushfires or COVID19. The slight weakening probably isn't enough to justify a cut considering 'the long and variable lags' referred to by the Governor, and would leave scope for more cuts later if both of the above factors create persistent drag.
Rich Harvey
Rich Harvey
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDRBA does not want to see property market over-inflated but waiting to see if past cuts will flow through and if lower AUD will stimulate exports
Julie Toth
Julie Toth
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDStagnant activity, investment, employment growth and unemployment rate.
Mathew Tiller
Mathew Tiller
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDAfter releasing fairly upbeat meeting minutes last month, the RBA is now assessing the global economic impact of the coronavirus and domestic implications of droughts and bushfires before it reduces the official cash rate further. Real estate markets across the country continue to benefit from low interest rates with strong buyer demand resulting in auction clearance rates above 75% and a steady lift in dwelling values.
Peter Boehm
Peter Boehm
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDI expect the RBA to hold rates for the time being. The economy would have to be facing serious problems if rates were to be reduced further and I don't think we're there yet - and hopefully won't be.
Ben Udy
Ben Udy
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDWe were already expecting the Australian economy to remain weak in 2020. The disruptions due to the coronavirus only add downside risk to that forecast. We think the unemployment rate will continue to rise prompting the RBA to cut twice.
Matthew Peter
Matthew Peter
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDThe RBA will remain on hold in February, despite the potential impact of the Bush Fires. Better prospects for the global economy, the potential for a stabilisation in Australian consumer spending and a robust labour market provide the RBA with breathing space on monetary policy. With only two rate cuts separating the cash rate from the effective lower bound, the RBA is a reluctant rate cutter at this junction.
Sarah Hunter
Sarah Hunter
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDThe recent labour market data has been more positive than we anticipated, so we've pushed back our call for one final rate cut to Q2 2020. But the forward indicators for jobs growth have continued to weaken (and the impact of the bushfires is a further downside risk), which means we still expect the RBA to cut one more time in this loosening cycle.
John Caelli
John Caelli
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDThe cash rate will likely fall in May as the RBA looks to get the unemployment rate lower. The uncertainty around the impacts of the coronavirus and weak consumer spending will also be factors.
Mark Crosby
Mark Crosby
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDRBA will likely cut this meeting or next as COVID fears escalate. Subsequent moves will depend on how quickly this is brought under control.
John Hewson
John Hewson
February
CUTMarch
HOLDUnsure of outlook and aware that int rate cuts do little to stimulate economy except asset prices esp housing
Clement Allan Tisdell
Clement Allan Tisdell
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDMay hold till the effects of the corona virus are clearer and fiscal policy is more apparent.
Tim Reardon
Tim Reardon
February
HOLDMarch
CUTA reduction due to the adverse impact of restrictions on trade and tourism.
Alex Joiner
Alex Joiner
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDThe RBA’s challenge with respect to easing policy further is having to judge whether any near term uptick in the unemployment rate is due to the impact of the bushfires and coronavirus - which it may choose to ‘look through’ - or the beginning of more entrenched weakness in the labour market. Consequently it will want to see ample evidence of this in the data flow and may not get a clear signal until early in the second half of the year.
Julia Newbould
Julia Newbould
February
N/AMarch
HOLDIt will allow the RBA to assess the lag effects of the June cut from last year, but that all depends on the impacts of the Coronovirus and the bushfires.
David Lowe
David Lowe
February
N/AMarch
HOLDThe RBA is likely to hold rates in March, allowing more time for the effects of its previous cuts to flow through the economy. The Board has noted the potential risk for lower rates to spur on increased borrowing and debt in the housing market at the time of an upswing, where the Australian household has only just started repairing balance sheets. A recent rise in unemployment may increase the chance of a rate cut sooner than previously thought, but not enough for a cut in March.
Peter Haller
Peter Haller
February
HOLDMarch
HOLDThere are downside risks to the RBA's current forecasts which, if crystallised, will bring forward a rate cut from the time currently expected by the market.
When will we see the bottom of the rate cycle?
Most of the experts we surveyed think the RBA will cut the cash rate as low as 0.50%. But a few predict even lower.
Watch our latest Australian property market update
How has the cash rate changed over time?
The graph above shows the movement in the official cash rate target. A lower cash rate reduces the cost of borrowing money so more people are encouraged to borrow - stimulating the economy. Higher interest rates tend to encourage spending. This is how a rise or fall in rates affects the level of supply and demand and therefore the level of inflation - which the RBA wants to keep in the target range of 2%-3%.
What is the official cash rate and who sets it?
Once a month, the RBA board meets to decide whether to raise the cash rate, lower it or keep it the same. Their decision will be influenced by a wide range of factors including inflation, the performance of the Aussie dollar, the housing market, Australia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and levels of consumer confidence. The board will assess all of these factors in relation to the RBA's goals and objectives before reaching a consensus on what to do with the official cash rate.
The RBA's monetary policy aims to achieve three key objectives which are set out in the Reserve Bank Act 1959:
- The stability of the currency of Australia;
- The maintenance of full employment in Australia; and
- The economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia.
In order to reach those objectives, the RBA sets an inflation target of 2-3% over the medium term. In other words, the RBA wants the Consumer Price Index (CPI, based on the average prices for a range of common goods and services) to increase by between 2 and 3 per cent each year.
The bank can control inflation by making adjustments to the official cash rate. For example, if inflation rises above the target rate it means that Australians are spending their money too freely and prices are increasing too rapidly. But if the RBA raises interest rates to make it more expensive to borrow money, the economy will settle and price increases will slow down. Conversely, the RBA will drop interest rates if inflation is too low and the economy is stagnating, encouraging more Australians to spend more money and stimulate economic growth.
See how the cash rate changes can affect your savings, term deposits, home loans and what you can do about it.
If the rate rises
Ask your lender for a rate discount so that if rates do rise you won't be worse off, or alternatively, compare other variable or even fixed rate home loans to find a better deal.
If the rate gets cut
See how your lender responds to the cut. If they don't pass on the full rate cut, ask for a rate discount, and if you're still not happy start comparing what other deals are in the market. Some lenders have been known to pass on more than the official rate cut after an RBA announcement!
If the rate holds
Compare other variable rate home loans to make sure you're still getting the best deal. If rates are tipped to rise in the near future you may also want to compare fixed rates.
If the rate rises
Find an account which offers the same features and fees but with a better rate.
If the rate gets cut
Consider comparing a competitive term deposit rate so your interest earnings don't suffer.
If the rate holds
Carry out a quick comparison to make sure you're getting the best return on your money, see what promotions banks are offering.
If the rate rises
Your rate won't rise as you locked it in, so you can relax a little. If your fixed rate is soon to end, start comparing what deals are being offered so you don't find yourself scrambling to lock in another rate.
If the rate gets cut
If you feel your home loan is no longer competitive, you might want to obtain a quote from your lender to find out possible exit costs. If this figure is reasonable, you might want to consider comparing variable home loans. Use our switching costs calculator to see if you'd save.
If the rate holds
Because your rate is fixed for an agreed period of time, a decision by the RBA to hold won't have as much of an effect on you depending on how long you still have to go in your fixed term. As mentioned above, you might still want to monitor the other deals in the market to keep informed.
If the rate rises
If rates rise, savings accounts rates could be increased as well. If this happens, you might want to compare the rates of high interest savings accounts. Remember that most term deposits have interest penalties if you withdraw your funds early, so keep this in mind.
If the rate gets cut
Your rate won't change because it's locked in, but if you're nearing the end of your term start comparing both high interest savings accounts and term deposits to find a good deal.
If the rate holds
Compare accounts and ensure you're aware of what's being offered in the market.
Check out Finder's RBA survey press releases
Pre-announcement RBA Press Releases
- RBA survey: 87% of experts predict recession
- Masks on, scissors out: RBA cuts cash rate to 0.50%
- RBA Survey: Coronavirus economic impacts just beginning
- RBA Survey: Half of experts think RBA made wrong call with cash rate cuts
- Experts contradict RBA governor and expect quantitative easing in 2020
- RBA Survey: Rate cut coming in Feb 2020
- Borrowers’ lot set to improve as experts call for cash rate cut
- November rain: 61% of experts tip rate cut in November, further drop to AUD
- China on my mind: Experts concerned about overseas relations as rate holds
- $40K home loan hack: Why borrowers should keep their repayments on hold
- Cash rate on way to 0.50%, say 1 in 3 experts
- RBA Survey: 2 rate cuts coming in 2019, say experts
Post-announcement RBA Press Releases
- RBA Survey: Brisbane and Melbourne picked as top cities to buy property
- RBA Survey: To buy or not to buy, that is the question
- RBA cuts: Cash rate heading to 0.50%
- RBA Survey: Experts favour Melbourne and Brisbane for property investment
- RBA Survey: Property prices to rise in all capitals as cash rate holds
- Homeowners rejoice, savers brace as RBA cuts to 1.00%
- Cash rate in limbo – but not for long
- 1 in 2 mortgage holders struggle to pay as cash rate holds
- RBA Survey: Will the big four banks bounce back?
- RBA Survey: House prices to keep falling in eastern capitals
- RBA Survey: Stricter lending by banks will hurt the economy
- RBA Survey: Royal Commission fallout to see small lenders favoured – November, 2018
RBA news and announcements
Every lender passing on the RBA’s surprise second March 2020 rate cut
Check if your lender is passing on the cut and offering you a lower variable mortgage rate (and if they're not, here's what you should do). Read more…
What’s really behind the RBA’s emergency mid-month rate cut?
Let's take a closer look at the economic effects of COVID-19, the purpose of the cash rate and the RBA's policy response to the crisis. Read more…
RBA makes unprecedented mid-month rate cut as coronavirus wreaks economic havoc
The official cash rate is now 0.25% after an emergency meeting of the Reserve Bank. Read more…
What an RBA emergency interest rate cut means for stocks
The RBA is pegged to cut rates and introduce quantitative easing – so why is the market crashing? Read more…
Ask an Expert
how long can AUD interest rate remain Low…..?
how soon will the AUD follow the US FED Rate Hike…….?
thank you
Hi Octo!
Thanks for getting in touch!
To know more information on your questions, you can fill in your email address in the box provided and you’ll be updated on RBA’s decisions on the official cash rate target.
While we provide you with general information, please know that we don’t stand as a representation for RBA or any company featured on our site.
Hope that clarifies!
Cheers,
Nikki
Do you think the cash rate will stay the same at the June RBA meeting?
Hi Taneesha,
Thanks for getting in touch with finder. I hope all is well for you. :)
Unfortunately, we are not in the best place to make a prediction. However, you might get an idea whether the RBA cash rate will rise or fall by looking at the factors that affect it. These factors may include:
– Household debt
– Inflation
– Wage growth
– Consumer Confidence Index
– Unemployment
I hope this helps. Should you have further questions, please don’t hesitate to reach us out again.
Have a wonderful day!
Cheers,
Joshua
What do you think that how the international economic condition influence the cash rate?
Hi Brook,
Thank you for getting in touch with finder.
This is nice question. Domestic financial conditions remain expansionary. There has been some tightening in short-term
money markets, which has flowed through to a small increase in funding costs for a range of financial institutions and businesses. However, borrowing rates remain low for households and businesses. Growth in housing credit has eased since mid last year, particularly for credit extended to investors, while growth in business debt has remained moderate. The Australian dollar remains within its narrow range of the past two years. Financial market prices suggest that the cash rate is expected to remain unchanged this year and to increase around mid 2019. If you are eager to learn more about the domestic financial condition according to RBA, please check out this link.
I hope this helps.
Have a great day!
Cheers,
Jeni
What do you think will be the next move for RBA on cash rate and when?
Thank you!
Hi Rob!
Thanks for the comment.
As of the moment, most of resident rate experts predict that rates will be the same. The cash rate target is released on the first Tuesday of every month except January.
You can follow the updated forecast right here.
Hope this helps.
Cheers,
Jonathan
Thanks Jonathan, I meant in the longer term, 6-12 months.
Hi Rob!
We appreciate your follow-up.
Currently, there are multiple factors that need to be considered and due to the volatility of these factors, it is a bit hard to conclude whether they’ll leave the rates unchanged for the next few months or not.
If you have further inquiries, you may contact:
Media and Communications
Secretary’s Department
Reserve Bank of Australia
SYDNEY
Phone: +61 2 9551 9720
Fax: +61 2 9551 8033
Email: rbainfo@rba.gov.au
Hope this helps.
Cheers,
Jonathan
When do you think the RBA will start raising rates?
Hi Julie,
Thank you for contacting finder.com.au we are a financial comparison website and general information service.
It is hard to predict the movement of the cash rate as it is based on a multitude of factors that are continually changing however 7 out of the 38 experts we surveyed in our latest RBA survey for September 2016 said they predict it will start going up in July 2017 or beyond.
Regards
Jodie
Hi Belinda
Appreciate if you would also send me informations regarding findings of monthly RBA survey.
Regards
Eric
Hi Eric,
Thanks for getting in touch.
On this page, you can view the RBA Cash Rate Target Announcements for each month from February 2015 until February 2016. You can also view the commentary of our resident rate experts in the lead up to each Board meeting which occurs on the first Tuesday of every month (except January).
Please feel free to sign up to receive our detailed RBA cash rate updates by completing the form provided above.
Regards,
Belinda
Hi,
My new house is ready now and wondering what is the best time to sell, should I put my house in the market now or January or wait for the February. I am not committed any where so I can wait.
Your advise needed.
Thanks
Hi Syed,
Thanks for your enquiry.
As finder.com.au is an online comparison service so we are not licensed to give you personal advice regarding the best time to sell your property.
You can read our guide here about considerations when selling your house.
All the best,
Belinda
hello.
i wonder if i could receive some information regarding not only the latest current economic situation, but also cash rate movements over the year.
Hi Dongho,
Thanks for your enquiry.
Above on this page you can view the ‘Reserve Bank monthly announcements’ to read about the cash rate movements and monetary policy decisions that have occurred over the course of this year. You can also sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates by filling in the form provided above.
In regards to the current economic situation, finder.com.au is an online comparative website and we can’t comment on the activity of the broader Australian economy.
Thanks,
Belinda
Can you please send through the information on the RBA via email?
I’m doing a school Economic assignment on the RBA and financial markets
Hi Oli,
Thanks for your enquiry.
I’ve emailed you with some information regarding the findings from our monthly RBA survey.
Please note that on this page you can sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates.
Thanks,
Belinda
Hi,
I was just wondering if I could have information regarding how interests rates will unfold over the next year. In particular, if the current interest rates will be appropriate for the economic conditions in Australia.
Thank you
Yazmin
Hi Yazmin,
Thanks for your enquiry.
Firstly, I’d like to point out that finder.com.au is an online comparison and general information service so we’re not in a position to forecast interest rates.
However, on this page you can sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates which you might find useful.
Thanks,
Belinda