RBA cash rate

Are interest rates going up or down? What will the next RBA interest rate decision be? Get the latest cash rate predictions and insights from 40+ experts.

The Reserve Bank of Australia sets the official cash rate target. This is a benchmark rate that has a big impact on home loan interest rates, savings accounts and other credit products.

The official cash rate is currently:

4.35%

The RBA's next interest rate decision is on:

18 February 2025

Of the experts surveyed by Finder for December:

100% correctly predicted the cash rate would hold.

Graham Cooke

Graham Cooke - Head of consumer research

Homeowners eagerly awaiting a rate cut before Christmas will have to hold on a bit longer for some relief. However, the good news is that 2025 will almost definitely bring multiple rate cuts.

Finder money experts
Insights and analysis by Richard Whitten, Rebecca Pike and Graham Cooke – Finder money experts

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The latest cash rate analysis from the experts

Finder regularly surveys 40+ economists and property experts to forecast the RBA's next cash rate decision and get insights into the future of the Australian economy. Here are the most recent cash rate predictions.

November
HOLD
December
HOLD
Even though overall inflation has dropped, core inflation is still above the RBA's target of 2–3 percent. RBA Governor Michele Bullock has stated that inflation is still "too high" for rate cuts anytime soon and that interest rates will stay high until inflation consistently falls within the target range.

November
HOLD
December
HOLD

November
HOLD
December
HOLD

November
HOLD
December
HOLD
Inflation is likely still too high to see the RBA cutting in November. But it is falling and likely to continue to do so resulting in a start to rate cuts in February next year. A December cut is still possible but would need to see a further sharp fall in underlying inflation in October monthly data along with a renewed rise in unemployment.

November
HOLD
December
HOLD

November
HOLD
December
HOLD
The RBA is likely to try and tweak rates by the start to middle of next year.

November
HOLD
December
HOLD
As explained by RBA in November commentary

November
HOLD
December
HOLD
I think there needs to be a negative sick to cut rates.

November
HOLD
December
HOLD
Weak economic growth and decelerating inflation.

November
HOLD
December
HOLD

November
HOLD
December
HOLD
The same reasons, as provided in (3)

November
HOLD
December
HOLD

November
HOLD
December
HOLD
The RBA has already earmarked a May 2025 timing and in addition to keeping an eye on the unemployment rate, it will give the RBA an opportunity to consider the inflation picture post any holiday season retail spike.

November
HOLD
December
HOLD
We are overdue for the easing of rates and they kept rates high for Christmas in an effort to curb spending. Once the feastive season is over and everyone has thier credit card statements I think rates will start to drop.

November
HOLD
December
HOLD

November
HOLD
December
HOLD

November
HOLD
December
HOLD
Despite absorbing 13 rate hikes since May 2022, Australian inflation still looks as if it may raise itself slowly from the bedroom floor and turn it's gaze toward us, blank-eyed and menacing from behind a hockey-mask.

November
N/A
December
HOLD
With the Board still focused on the level of demand exceeding supply, our forecast for six-month annualised trimmed mean inflation to fall just within the RBA’s target band by the February meeting is no longer looking like enough for a rate cut in February.

November
HOLD
December
HOLD
See above

November
HOLD
December
HOLD

November
HOLD
December
HOLD

November
HOLD
December
HOLD
Inflation still is too high to allow a cut before early next year.

November
HOLD
December
HOLD

November
HOLD
December
HOLD
Low inflation, rising unemployment.

November
HOLD
December
HOLD
The more data we get the later a cut to the cash rate appears and it is increasingly possible that the next change could be upwards. Home building is picking up, migration remains exceptionally high and government construction activites will keep unemployment at historic lows.

November
HOLD
December
HOLD

November
HOLD
December
HOLD

November
HOLD
December
HOLD
There has to be a sustained reduction in headline inflation before the RBA can be justified in reducing rates -this will take some time to occur.

November
HOLD
December
HOLD
See my reply above.

November
HOLD
December
HOLD
As above

November
HOLD
December
HOLD
Monthly inflation readings since last quarterly CPI announcement have fallen precipitously. Assuming these monthly reductions are reflected in the next quarterly CPI report, then quarterly headline CPI inflation may well show a return to the RBA's target 2-3% range. However, underlying inflation is still above the target range and rising at last report. Any temptation to reduce the cash rate will be tempered by continued upward pressure on house prices and full employment. The RBA will likely only move to cut rates once convinced that underlying inflation has settled in the 2-3% range.

November
HOLD
December
HOLD

November
HOLD
December
HOLD
See answer to question 2.

November
HOLD
December
HOLD
By April 2025 the headline inflation rate will have been within the 2-3 per cent target range for more than half a year, real per capita GDP will have been negative for an inordinately long time and the RBA will have run out of reasons to maintain the cash rate at its existing level.

November
HOLD
December
HOLD

November
HOLD
December
HOLD
Given the trimmed mean inflation rate has increased in the October CPI data, it is safe to say we are still a while off being in the target band, I would suggest that the change of Government in the US will have upwards pressure on inflation there which will have knock on effects globally.

November
HOLD
December
HOLD

November
HOLD
December
HOLD
The cash rate has normalized to the level it should be. The low rates over the period 2014-20 is the lowest in history and unnaturally so.

November
HOLD
December
HOLD
RBA can be confident by that stage that inflation is declining in line with projections.

November
HOLD
December
HOLD

What is the official cash rate?

One of the Reserve Bank's primary roles is setting monetary policy for the Australian economy. This involves setting the cash rate (or to use its full name, the official cash rate target).

At a technical level, the cash rate is actually the interest rate banks pay for borrowing money from each other overnight. Banks use this to manage liquidity and issue funds as needed.

Australian banks can borrow and deposit money with the RBA at just below the current cash rate target.

How the official cash rate target affects interest rates

But for the average Australian consumer, the cash rate is really useful as a broad benchmark for the interest rates on home loans and savings accounts. A high cash rate makes borrowing money more expensive and sees home loan repayments rise.

A low cash rate makes it cheaper to borrow money. This boosts borrowing and spending.

How has the cash rate changed over time?

The Reserve Bank adjusts the official cash rate target over time in response to various economic data, including:

  • Inflation
  • The unemployment rate
  • Global economic factors

The cash rate stayed at the then record low of 1.50% from 2016 to 2019, when the RBA lowered it further in response to low inflation and slightly higher unemployment.

Then as the Covid-19 pandemic began to hurt the Australian economy the RBA dropped the cash rate even further. This was to make borrowing cheaper and stimulate a struggling economy. The cash rate hit the record low of 0.10% during this time.

Now, with inflation soaring the RBA has lifted the cash rate very quickly to try to slow demand and curb price rises.

The graph on the left below shows movements in the official cash rate over time. And the graph on the right shows the market's lowest home loan rates. You can see how the market responds by raising or lowering rates broadly in line with the RBA's decisions.

How does the RBA's cash rate decisions affect your finances?

The RBA can do 3 things with the cash rate: Raise, lower or hold the cash rate at its current level.

Raise

If the RBA lifts the cash rate

When the cash rate rises, most lenders pass on the rate rise to borrowers on variable rate home loans.

If the cash rate rises by 25 basis points, then most borrowers will see 25 basis points added to their home loan's interest rate.

If you have a fixed rate home loan nothing changes. Your rate is locked in for the duration of the fixed period.

Banks may also increase interest rates on term deposits and high interest savings accounts. But in practice home loan rates rise faster than savings account rates.

Down

If the RBA lowers the cash rate

When the RBA lowers the cash rate, most lenders pass on some if not all of the cut to borrowers on variable rate home loans.

Banks also lower rates on savings accounts and other products.

If you have a home loan, it's a good idea to check if your lender has actually passed on the rate cut to you. If it hasn't, you may need to switch.

Hold

If the RBA holds the cash rate

A hold decision means the cash rate isn't changing this month. This means that your home loan or savings account rate likely won't change. You don't really have to do anything.

But banks and lenders change interest rates all the time for various reasons even if the RBA doesn't move the cash rate.

Calculate how much a cash rate rise will impact your home loan repayments

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With a new interest rate of , your monthly repayments will increase by .
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Compare your options in under a minute.

Enter your loan amount, current interest rate and the latest cash rate increase to quickly estimate how much your monthly repayments will increase.

Example: how changes to the cash rate can change your loan repayments

You have a $600,000 home loan with a variable interest rate of 6.00%. It's a 30-year loan term with principal-and-interest repayments.

Your monthly repayments are $3,598.

⬆️ If the cash rate rises by 25 basis points your interest rate would increase to 6.25%. Your monthly repayments would now be $3,695. This would cost you an extra $97 a month or $1,164 a year.

⬇️ If the cash rate decreases by 25 basis points your interest rate would fall to 5.75%. Your monthly repayments would now be $3,502. This would save you $96 a month or $1,152 a year.

More questions about the RBA cash rate

Check out more RBA news and Finder's RBA survey press releases

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Editor

Richard Whitten is a money editor at Finder, and has been covering home loans, property and personal finance for 6+ years. He has written for Yahoo Finance, Money Magazine and Homely; and has appeared on various radio shows nationwide. He holds a Certificate IV in mortgage broking and finance (RG 206), a Tier 1 Generic Knowledge certification and a Tier 2 General Advice Deposit Products (RG 146) certification. See full bio

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48 Responses

    Default Gravatar
    CuteyJune 16, 2022

    When the RBA decreases the cash rate , does it mean it prints more money to increase money supply and thereby decreasing the borrowing rate. And if that is the case, does increasing the cash rate mean that the RBA has to extinguish some of the money supply thereby reducing the money available to borrow. I am assuming that RBA can’t just simply say the cash rate is this much, it has to increase/decrease money supply at the backend to make sure the cash rate stays at whatever level it wants to stay at.

      AvatarFinder
      RichardJune 18, 2022Finder

      Hi,

      The cash rate determines the interest rate lenders can charge when lending money to each other at short notice (also called the overnight cash rate). Lenders and banks are always moving money around to cover different investments and expenses, including funding for home loans.

      So the cash rate affects their costs, and they pass this onto borrowers. Changing the cash rate target does nothing to the amount of money in the economy. It affects the cost of borrowing and lending money.

      The RBA does in effect create money sometimes, in a process called quantitative easing. This involves purchasing bonds from investors at a favourable rate, freeing up investor cash to go elsewhere in the economy. This is different to the cash rate.

      I hope this helps.

      Regards,
      Richard

    Default Gravatar
    octoJune 18, 2018

    how long can AUD interest rate remain Low…..?

    how soon will the AUD follow the US FED Rate Hike…….?

    thank you

      Default Gravatar
      NikkiJune 20, 2018

      Hi Octo!

      Thanks for getting in touch!

      To know more information on your questions, you can fill in your email address in the box provided and you’ll be updated on RBA’s decisions on the official cash rate target.

      While we provide you with general information, please know that we don’t stand as a representation for RBA or any company featured on our site.

      Hope that clarifies!

      Cheers,
      Nikki

    Default Gravatar
    TaneeshaMay 24, 2018

    Do you think the cash rate will stay the same at the June RBA meeting?

      AvatarFinder
      JoshuaMay 24, 2018Finder

      Hi Taneesha,

      Thanks for getting in touch with finder. I hope all is well for you. :)

      Unfortunately, we are not in the best place to make a prediction. However, you might get an idea whether the RBA cash rate will rise or fall by looking at the factors that affect it. These factors may include:

      – Household debt
      – Inflation
      – Wage growth
      – Consumer Confidence Index
      – Unemployment

      I hope this helps. Should you have further questions, please don’t hesitate to reach us out again.

      Have a wonderful day!

      Cheers,
      Joshua

    Default Gravatar
    BrookMay 5, 2018

    What do you think that how the international economic condition influence the cash rate?

      AvatarFinder
      JeniMay 6, 2018Finder

      Hi Brook,

      Thank you for getting in touch with Finder.

      This is a nice question. Domestic financial conditions remain expansionary. There has been some tightening in short-term
      money markets, which has flowed through to a small increase in funding costs for a range of financial institutions and businesses. However, borrowing rates remain low for households and businesses. Growth in housing credit has eased since mid last year, particularly for credit extended to investors, while growth in business debt has remained moderate. The Australian dollar remains within its narrow range of the past two years. Financial market prices suggest that the cash rate is expected to remain unchanged this year and to increase around mid 2019. If you are eager to learn more about the domestic financial condition according to RBA, refer to the Domestic Economic Conditions file.

      I hope this helps.

      Have a great day!

      Cheers,
      Jeni

    Default Gravatar
    RobJune 11, 2017

    What do you think will be the next move for RBA on cash rate and when?

    Thank you!

      Default Gravatar
      JonathanJune 11, 2017

      Hi Rob!

      Thanks for the comment.

      As of the moment, most of resident rate experts predict that rates will be the same. The cash rate target is released on the first Tuesday of every month except January.

      You can follow the updated RBA forecast through our website.

      Hope this helps.

      Cheers,
      Jonathan

      Default Gravatar
      RobJune 11, 2017

      Thanks Jonathan, I meant in the longer term, 6-12 months.

      Default Gravatar
      JonathanJune 11, 2017

      Hi Rob!

      We appreciate your follow-up.

      Currently, there are multiple factors that need to be considered and due to the volatility of these factors, it is a bit hard to conclude whether they’ll leave the rates unchanged for the next few months or not.

      If you have further inquiries, you may contact:

      Media and Communications
      Secretary’s Department
      Reserve Bank of Australia
      SYDNEY
      Phone: +61 2 9551 9720
      Fax: +61 2 9551 8033
      Email: rbainfo@rba.gov.au

      Hope this helps.

      Cheers,
      Jonathan

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