Finder’s RBA Survey: Experts divided on cash rate trajectory for 2026

The RBA has held the cash rate at its final meeting of 2025, dashing hopes of any Christmas reprieve for borrowers.

In this month's Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey™, 35 experts and economists weighed in on future cash rate moves and other issues relating to the state of the economy.

All experts (100%, 35/35) correctly tipped a cash rate hold, keeping it at 3.60%.

While panellists were unanimous in predicting the RBA's December decision, they are split on what will happen next.

Almost 1 in 3 (29%) forecast at least one rate rise in the next year. The same proportion (29%) are predicting at least one cut.

Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said momentum had swung quickly.

"Just a few months ago, another rate cut looked within reach. Now, we have the most divided panel I've seen in years. Nobody knows which way the RBA will go next.

"Borrowers should tread carefully over the festive period. You don't want to go into the New Year with a Christmas debt hangover, especially when your mortgage could be getting more expensive.

"If you haven't reviewed your home loan in a while, now's the time. Refinancing to a lower rate or negotiating a better deal with your lender could save you thousands of dollars," Cooke said.

To fix or not to fix: Aussies with a $600,000 mortgage could save over $4,000

While 29% of panellists from Finder's RBA Cash Rate Survey are predicting at least one rate rise in the next year, bond traders on the ASX are pricing in a raise by November 2026.

Finder analysis shows that a homeowner with a $600,000 mortgage on an average rate* could save $4,079 over the next 12 months by switching to the lowest fixed rate, assuming the cash rate holds during that time.

Cooke said fixing your rate is a personal decision that comes down to your risk appetite.

"If you are really struggling and need the certainty of set repayments to manage your budget, fixed rates can provide that emotional security and certainty.

"Trying to "beat the bank" by fixing your rate is often a losing gamble because banks are experts at pricing in future rate movements.

"If variable rates do drop, you could be stuck paying a higher fixed rate or face a penalty of thousands of dollars to get out.

"No matter whether you go fixed or variable, make sure you are on the best rate possible."

*That's if they switch from the average variable rate of 5.52% to the lowest 1-year fixed rate of 4.84%.

Experts share their one piece of budgeting advice for next year

This month, experts were asked: What's one piece of budgeting advice you would give to a friend for 2026?

Here's what they said:

Nalini Prasad, UNSW Sydney: "2025 was a turbulent year. Hopefully 2026 is calmer. But in case it isn't, save. Plus learn about AI."

Dale Gillham, Wealth Within: "Save or invest at least 10% of your income, pay off debt with 20% of your income and only spend the rest."

Kyle Rodda, Capital.com: "Lay-off the booze, quit vaping, keep the coffee runs to once a day, eat in and prepare your lunches at home, take up a cheap (and physically active) hobby, call your folks to tell them you love them if you still have them around – if not to be a decent child, then at least to stay in their will."

Shane Oliver, AMP: "Spend less of things you don't need and put it into the mortgage."

Stella Huangfu, University of Sydney: "Don't cut everything out, just cut the one thing that matters. Energy, groceries, insurance – pick the one that hits your bank account hardest and find a way to trim it by even 10%. One change saves far more than a dozen small sacrifices, and you'll actually stick to it."

Malcolm Wood, Ord Minnett: "Actively budget – a savings buffer is important in a world of heightened uncertainty."

Adj Prof Noel Whittaker, QUT: "The hardest thing is starting. There's a wonderful budget program on the ASIC Money Smart website. Start there. Just say you'll devote the next half an hour to it, and then it will take over and you'll get on track."

Peter Boehm, Pathfinder Consulting: "Don't live on credit – spend only what you can afford. If you need encouragement, simply look at how the federal and state governments rely on borrowings/taxation to fund their spending and how this approach is decimating the economy and adversely impacting almost every Australian."

Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics: "Wean yourself off impulse buys, find lovely things to do – like drinking out of a beautiful tea pot and cup – that, once you've paid for the cup, cost nothing but remind you that that's the best you can do in life – until they put you in the box."

Nicholas Frappell, ABC Refinery: "Be moderate with credit card financed spending."

Jakob Madsen, University of Western Australia: "Put your savings/pension money into shares in industry funds. Much better returns than investment in housing and leaning the money on a savings account. Investing in crypto currency and gold is mad – only for gamblers who accept negative returns."

Jeffrey Sheen, Macquarie University: "Reduce your speculative investments."

Cameron Murray, Fresh Economic Thinking: "Get free hobbies."