Finder’s RBA Survey: Easing cycle ends as RBA delivers first rate hike since 2023
After no movement in 2024, and three cuts in 2025 the Reserve Bank of Australia started off 2026 with a cash rate hike.
In this month's Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey™, 33 experts and economists weighed in on future cash rate moves and other issues relating to the state of the economy.
More than half of the experts from Finder's RBA panel (51%, 17/33) correctly predicted the rate hike, bringing the cash rate to 3.85% in February.
Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said the RBA is sending a clear signal that the inflation genie isn't back in the bottle just yet.
"Our research showed mortgage stress on average had started to subside – expect it to rise with a vengeance as monthly payments jump.
"If inflation persists, expect more of last year's mortgage stress relief to be wiped away."
Impact of February 2026 rate rise on mortgage repayments
| Loan amount | Old monthly repayment (Nov 2025) | New monthly repayment (Feb 2026) | Monthly increase | Annual increase |
| $693,802 | $3,935 | $4,044 | $109 | $1,313 |
| $750,000 | $4,254 | $4,372 | $118 | $1,420 |
| $1,000,000 | $5,672 | $5,829 | $158 | $1,893 |
| Source: Finder, RBA. *Owner-occupier variable discounted rate. Repayments based on a 30 year loan term with P&I repayment at a monthly frequency. |  |
Economists warn of global market risks following government pressure on the Federal Reserve in the United States
In light of US President Donald Trump investigating and pressuring current Fed chair Jerome Powell to lower rates, economists were asked about the potential dangers and impacts of this behaviour.
Experts suggested that this sort of behaviour will hurt a central bank's credibility and also drive up the cost of goods.
Nicholas Gruen, CEO of Lateral Economics said the danger was obvious.
"It will destroy the Fed's credibility and make inflation harder to manage," Gruen said.
Kyle Rodda, market analyst at Capital.com said this action could lead to a higher risk premium in US Treasuries which would then in turn bleed into Australian bond prices.
Craig Emerson of Emerson Economics took it a step further, suggesting global confidence would plunge and it could create recessionary conditions.
James Morley, professor of Macroeconomics at University of Sydney said doing this would create "huge dangers" for the US economy but for Australia, the likely consequence would be a stronger dollar."
Tim Reardon, economist for Housing Industry Association said governments setting rates won't bring markets to a halt, but it is a concern.
"Governments set interest rates prior to the 1980s. They weren't very good at it, but it occurred for 50 years.
"Regardless of the US, elevated interest rates and a higher AUD will impair exports at a time when other countries are competing in a global market where demand for coal and iron ore isn't growing as seen in earlier decades.
"The loss of mining as a driver of activity is more of a concern to the AU economy," Reardon said.
Australian property prices projected to grow 4.19% over next 12 months
Economists predict property prices will continue to climb by an average of 4.19% across all major capital cities over the next 12 months.
Perth will lead the country with a property price increase of 5.3% over the next 12 months.
Brisbane is expected to follow closely with a forecast growth rate of 4.8%, while Sydney property prices are anticipated to rise by 4.7% during the same period.
Adelaide is projected to see a growth of 3.2%, followed by Melbourne with a predicted increase of 3.1%.
| How much do you expect property prices to move over the next 12 months? | |
| Perth | 5.30% |
| Brisbane | 4.80% |
| Sydney | 4.70% |
| Adelaide | 3.20% |
| Melbourne | 3.10% |
| Australia (weighted average) | 4.19% |
| Source: Finder RBA Cash Rate survey of 21 economists, February 2026 | |
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