RBA interest rate decision prediction

The official cash rate is 4.35%. 92% of Finder's economists and experts predicted the RBA's decision to hold the cash rate again in August.

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Richard Whitten

Updated

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Key takeaways

  • The official cash rate is 4.35%. The Reserve Bank decided to hold the cash rate at its August meeting.
  • 92% of Finder's experts correctly predicted the RBA's decision.
  • The Reserve Bank meets again on 29 September 2026 to set the benchmark interest rate.

RBA cash rate (2018–present)

RBA cash rate (2018–present)
LabelCash rate
May-20181.5
Jun-20181.5
Jul-20181.5
Aug-20181.5
Sep-20181.5
Oct-20181.5
Nov-20181.5
Dec-20181.5
Jan-20191.5
Feb-20191.5
Mar-20191.5
Apr-20191.5
May-20191.5
Jun-20191.3
Jul-20191
Aug-20191
Sep-20191
Oct-20190.8
Nov-20190.8
Dec-20190.8
Jan-20200.8
Feb-20200.8
Mar-20200.3
Apr-20200.3
May-20200.3
Jun-20200.3
Jul-20200.3
Aug-20200.3
Sep-20200.3
Oct-20200.3
Nov-20200.1
Dec-20200.1
Jan-20210.1
Feb-20210.1
Mar-20210.1
Apr-20210.1
May-20210.1
Jun-20210.1
Jul-20210.1
Aug-20210.1
Sep-20210.1
Oct-20210.1
Nov-20210.1
Dec-20210.1
Jan-20220.1
Feb-20220.1
Mar-20220.1
Apr-20220.1
May-20220.4
Jun-20220.9
Jul-20221.4
Aug-20221.9
Sep-20222.4
Oct-20222.6
Nov-20222.9
Dec-20223.1
Jan-20233.1
Feb-20233.4
Mar-20233.6
Apr-20233.6
May-20233.9
Jun-20234.1
Jul-20234.1
Aug-20234.1
Sep-20234.1
Oct-20234.1
Nov-20234.4
Dec-20234.4
Jan-20244.4
Feb-20244.4
Mar-20244.4
Apr-20244.4
May-20244.4
Jun-20244.4
Jul-20244.4
Aug-20244.4
Sep-20244.4
Oct-20244.4
Nov-20244.4
Dec-20244.4
Jan-20254.4
Feb-20254.1
Mar-20254.1
Apr-20254.1
May-20253.9
Jun-20253.9
Jul-20253.9
Aug-20253.6
Sep-20253.6
Nov-20253.6
Dec-20253.6
Feb-20263.9
Mar-20264.1
May-20264.4
Jun-20264.4
Aug-20264.4
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia

Finder's lowest home loan rates

A graph showing 4 lines, for fixed and variable interest rates for investor and owner-occupier loans.

Finder's lowest home loan rates
MonthVariable (owner occupier)Fixed (owner occupier)Variable (investment)Fixed (investment)
May-20183.49%3.69%3.79%3.89%
Jun-20183.52%3.69%3.79%3.89%
Jul-20183.49%3.69%3.79%3.89%
Aug-20183.54%3.74%3.93%3.84%
Sep-20183.49%3.74%3.89%3.84%
Oct-20183.54%3.74%3.79%3.84%
Nov-20183.54%3.74%3.79%3.84%
Dec-20183.49%3.69%3.74%3.84%
Jan-20193.49%3.74%3.74%3.89%
Feb-20193.49%3.74%3.74%3.84%
Mar-20193.49%3.74%3.74%3.84%
Apr-20193.48%3.74%3.91%3.84%
May-20193.48%3.59%3.74%3.69%
Jun-20193.24%3.39%3.69%3.69%
Jul-20192.89%3.19%3.49%3.39%
Aug-20192.89%2.98%3.29%3.09%
Sep-20192.89%2.74%3.19%3.00%
Oct-20192.69%2.74%2.99%3.00%
Nov-20192.69%2.68%2.99%2.84%
Dec-20192.69%2.68%2.99%2.84%
Jan-20202.69%2.68%2.99%2.84%
Feb-20202.69%2.68%2.99%2.84%
Mar-20202.49%2.68%2.79%2.84%
Apr-20202.44%2.09%2.79%2.39%
May-20202.39%2.09%2.79%2.29%
Jun-20202.39%2.09%2.79%2.34%
Jul-20202.19%1.99%2.79%2.34%
Aug-20201.99%1.99%2.74%2.29%
Sep-20201.99%1.98%2.59%2.29%
Oct-20201.99%1.90%2.59%2.29%
Nov-20201.99%1.98%2.64%2.29%
Dec-20201.99%1.89%2.33%1.99%
Jan-20211.99%1.88%2.33%1.99%
Feb-20211.99%1.88%2.33%1.99%
Mar-20211.99%1.69%2.33%1.99%
Apr-20211.95%1.69%2.24%1.99%
May-20211.95%1.69%2.24%1.99%
Jun-20211.90%1.67%2.24%1.99%
Jul-20211.89%1.67%2.24%1.89%
Aug-20211.89%1.69%2.32%1.99%
Sep-20211.85%1.69%2.32%1.99%
Oct-20211.85%1.59%2.24%1.89%
Nov-20211.85%1.59%2.24%1.89%
Dec-20211.77%1.59%2.24%1.89%
Jan-20221.85%1.79%2.17%2.14%
Feb-20221.77%1.79%2.14%1.99%
Mar-20221.77%1.84%1.99%1.99%
Apr-20221.79%1.84%1.99%1.99%
May-20221.79%1.84%2.14%2.39%
Jun-20222.04%2.09%2.39%2.69%
Jul-20222.44%2.59%2.79%3.59%
Aug-20223.05%3.59%3.24%3.99%
Sep-20223.14%3.99%3.59%4.29%
Oct-20223.54%4.19%3.84%4.19%
Nov-20223.44%4.49%4.19%4.59%
Dec-20224.29%4.60%4.57%4.84%
Jan-20234.29%4.64%4.59%4.79%
Feb-20234.39%4.94%4.64%5.09%
Mar-20234.64%4.99%4.97%5.19%
Apr-20234.64%4.99%5.14%4.99%
May-20234.64%4.99%5.14%4.99%
Jun-20235.34%5.24%5.29%5.44%
Jul-20235.39%5.23%5.89%5.56%
Aug-20235.39%5.23%5.79%5.53%
Sep-20235.39%5.48%5.79%5.54%
Oct-20235.39%5.48%5.74%5.56%
Nov-20235.59%5.48%5.74%5.56%
Dec-20235.74%5.48%5.69%5.58%
Jan-20245.69%5.48%5.69%5.58%
Feb-20245.69%5.48%5.69%5.58%
Mar-20245.69%5.48%5.69%5.58%
Apr-20245.69%5.48%5.94%5.58%
May-20245.69%5.48%5.94%5.58%
Jun-20245.69%5.48%5.94%5.58%
Jul-20245.69%5.48%5.94%5.58%
Aug-20245.69%5.59%5.94%5.69%
Sep-20245.69%5.59%5.94%5.69%
Oct-20245.69%4.99%5.94%4.99%
Nov-20245.69%4.99%5.94%4.99%
Dec-20245.69%4.99%5.94%4.99%
Jan-20255.69%4.99%5.94%4.99%
Feb-20255.38%4.99%5.54%4.99%
Mar-20255.44%4.99%5.84%5.29%
Apr-20255.64%4.99%5.79%5.29%
May-20255.59%4.99%5.79%4.99%
Jun-20255.34%4.99%5.59%4.99%
Jul-20255.34%4.99%5.59%4.99%
Aug-20255.34%4.94%5.59%4.99%
Sep-20255.09%4.64%5.34%4.89%
Oct-20254.99%4.64%5.34%4.69%
Nov-20254.99%4.64%4.99%4.69%
Dec-20254.99%4.64%5.34%4.74%
Jan-20264.99%4.79%5.29%4.99%
Feb-20264.99%4.94%5.29%4.99%
Mar-20265.10%5.20%5.35%5.20%
Apr-20265.19%5.49%5.35%5.59%
May-20265.35%5.70%5.60%5.70%
Jun-20265.69%5.99%5.85%5.99%
Jul-20265.14%5.99%5.85%5.99%
Aug-20265.69%5.99%5.85%5.99%
Sep-20265.69%5.79%5.94%5.89%
Source: Finder

These graphs show movements in the official cash rate over time and changes to the market's lowest home loan rates over the same period. You can see how the market responds by raising or lowering rates broadly in line with the RBA's decisions.

Insights and analysis by 40+ economists, Richard Whitten and Sarah Megginson – Finder money experts

How often are Finder's expert predictions correct?

The latest cash rate analysis from the experts

Finder regularly surveys 40+ economists and property experts to forecast the RBA's next cash rate decision and get insights into the future of the Australian economy. Here are the most recent cash rate predictions.

Peter Boehm

+ Read Peter Boehm's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
The RBA is trying to balance maintaining employment levels and reducing inflation. As a result, it has held back increasing rates sooner to avoid the risk of pushing unemployment up. Unfortunately, there is no effective single strategy which addresses both objectives. Consequently, something has to give and so there is no alternative but to increase rates at the expense of pushing up the unemployment rate and possibly pushing the economy into recession. With inflation consistently above the target range the RBA must increase rates in September, with possibly two further rate increases to follow.
 

Saul Eslake

+ Read Saul Eslake's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
'Underlying' inflation remains well above the RBA's target, and recent comments by senior RBA officials suggest their willingness to tolerate this is fading. Recent developments in the Middle East represent further upward risks to the inflation outlook which the RBA will find it difficult to ignore.
 

Stella Huangfu

+ Read Stella Huangfu's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
Inflation remains too high, with underlying inflation proving persistent and still well above the RBA’s target range. Domestic capacity pressures remain, while higher energy costs continue to pose upside risks to inflation. Given these pressures, I expect the RBA to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points in September.
 

Kyle Rodda

+ Read Kyle Rodda's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
Inflation is elevated and the RBA has indicated that it is weighting policy towards price stability over the labour market.
 

Nicholas Gruen

+ Read Nicholas Gruen's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
They seem to be telegraphing as much
 

Garry Barrett

+ Read Garry Barrett's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
underlying inflation persistently outside target
 

Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo

+ Read Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
Inflation is still stubbornly above the target and recent remarks by RBA officials have taken on a somewhat hawkish tone, which may indicate that they are increasingly willing to see unemployment rise a little to ease inflationary pressure. I think the RBA will most likely raise the cash rate at this meeting.
 

Geoffrey Kingston

+ Read Geoffrey Kingston's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
The latest reports on the labour market and prices show that efforts to dated by the Bank. to bring inflation back within the target band, have fallen short. Bank officials have signalled in recent days that they are concerned that inflation expectations could become unanchored.
 

Mathew Tiller

+ Read Mathew Tiller's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
I expect the RBA to increase the cash rate. Inflation is proving to be stubborn and there are still some upside risks on the horizon given what’s happening in the Middle East and the ongoing tightness in the labour market. The housing market is also continuing to soften. Prices are declining as confidence softens, household budgets come under more pressure and some investors sit on the sidelines because of the tax changes. Another rate rise will only add to that pressure. Buyers will be more cautious, while some vendors may simply decide to hold off selling.
 

James Morley

+ Read James Morley's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
Inflation and the RBA's inflation forecasts are above the range the RBA would be comfortable with given the current level of interest rates. Thus, they are very likely to raise the cash rate to show a response to inflation. Economically, the effects of the oil price shock on the economy look to be more persistent than the best case scenario from when it first hit. Labour market conditions are weakening. But the RBA will see the economy as being close enough to a (weak) level of potential such that real economy won't be playing much role in pulling inflation down. Also, there is a general sense that the neutral rate of interest is higher than it was a few years ago due to global conditions, including in terms of fiscal profligacy. Taken together, these considerations imply the RBA will raise rates at the next meeting and likely the one after unless some new data comes in to ease their concerns about inflation.
 

Tim Nelson

+ Read Tim Nelson's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
Inflation has crept up again and its composition implies its more than just higher oil and commodity prices.
 

Noel Whittaker

+ Read Noel Whittaker's full forecast

August
RAISE
September
Raise
The bond markets are telling us that interest rates are on the rise around the world, and Australia will be no exception. Inflation is still not under control, the war in Iran shows no sign of ending soon, and the Reserve Bank has given strong hints that it will not hesitate to raise rates if necessary. So I expect rates to rise. But I also think it will be a fairly pointless exercise. Higher rates will hit people with mortgages hard, while doing little to address the global forces now driving inflation.
 

David Robertson

+ Read David Robertson's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
The recent rebound in oil prices together with more evidence of elevated core inflation prior to this impact leaves the RBA with little choice but to increase official rates this month. Our forecasts had predicted this hike in November, but the timeline is now more compressed.
 

Brodie Haupt

+ Read Brodie Haupt's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
Higher global oil prices flowing through to increased inflation might force the RBA board to increase the cash rate sooner than expected.
 

Cameron Murray

+ Read Cameron Murray's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Hold
Momentum in the economy isn't picking up, and they expect continuted softening in line with global trends.
 

Matt Turner

+ Read Matt Turner's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
Inflation high with ongoing conflict and government spending remaining still elevated. No choice left to reign it all in but raise rates.
 

Michael Yardney

+ Read Michael Yardney's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
Interest rates are likely to rise at the RBA’s next meeting because underlying inflation remains stubbornly above target, while the labour market is still relatively tight. With global cost pressures increasing and the RBA warning that inflation risks are materialising, the Board may decide that another rate rise is necessary to prevent inflation becoming entrenched.
 

Jakob Madsen

+ Read Jakob Madsen's full forecast

August
RAISE
September
Raise
RBA Governor Michele Bullock correctly highlighted that upside risks to inflation are materializing. Higher global energy and commodity prices, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions, have added sustained pressure to domestic consumer prices.
 

Jeffrey Sheen

+ Read Jeffrey Sheen's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
The RBA’s managers have given very strong indications that they will recommend raising the cash rate. Business leaders in the BOSS survey expect it. Financial markets have priced in a high probability of it occurring. Interest rates are rising globally.
 

Shane Oliver

+ Read Shane Oliver's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
While the RBA is meeeting its full employment objective this is not the case for its inflation objective with underlying inflation running well above target and looking like its going to take longer to get back to target than the RBA was forecasting in August. While cooling growth and the housing downturn should start to take pressure off inflation its early days and after more than five years of having inflation above target the RBA risks further losing its credibility if it decides to extend its wait and see approach.
 

Leanne Pilkington

+ Read Leanne Pilkington's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
The RBA's references to persistent inflation suggest another rise, and perhaps rises, are coming. Missing, though, is recognition that consumers are not paying higher prices for items like fuel, food and rent out of choice. They have no choice. Higher prices are the result of macro factors and these won't be impacted by interest rate hikes.
 

Tim Reardon

+ Read Tim Reardon's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Hold
Home prices are falling, that is a symptom of the previous rate increases that will, with time, flow through to reduced inflationary pressures.
 

Scott Kuru

+ Read Scott Kuru's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
It's pretty clear from everything that Michele Bullock and other RBA staff have said in recent days that inflation is tracking higher than they expected...possibly considerably higher. It would be a Hail Mary event if they didn't pull the trigger for a rate rise on Tuesday.
 

Stephen Koukoulas

+ Read Stephen Koukoulas's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
global inflation pressures are evident in Australia
 

Dr Andrew Wilson

+ Read Dr Andrew Wilson's full forecast

August
RAISE
September
Raise
Clear signal in last months commentary that rates would likely rise due to the clear prospect of elevated inflation - particularly in regard to fuel
 

Anthony Waldron

+ Read Anthony Waldron's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
ABS data shows that trimmed mean inflation, the RBA’s preferred measure, remains high. Earlier this month, at the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics Governor Bullock made clear that bringing inflation down is essential. This keeps a fourth cash rate hike firmly on the table this year either at this month’s meeting, or in November.
 

Dale Gillham

+ Read Dale Gillham's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
The RBA has kept rates at it's current level since the increase in May and inflation is not coming down. Oil is now back around $100 where it was in May, and energy costs are once again rising on the back of it. I expect a 25 basis point rise at the next RBA meeting.
 

Evgenia Dechter

+ Read Evgenia Dechter's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Hold
It is a difficult call. Economic growth is weak and unemployment is rising, so the RBA has to weigh the risk of persistent inflation against the risk of slowing the economy too much.
 

Stephen Miller

+ Read Stephen Miller's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
Inflation is too high and too "sticky".
 

Nicholas Frappell

+ Read Nicholas Frappell's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
An increased focus on reining in inflation, which has been above target for over 4 years.
 

Cameron Kusher

+ Read Cameron Kusher's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
Inflation is too high, economic growth was stronger than forecast and oil prices have risen quickly and are an input to many other goods in the CPI bucket.
 

Graham Cooke

+ Read Graham Cooke's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
Australian inflation has not cooled as quickly as anticipated. With the worsening crisis in the Middle East putting upward pressure on oil prices, the RBA will likely act to counter these inflationary pressures, just as the US Federal Reserve did this month - against the wishes of Donald Trump.
 

Sam White

+ Read Sam White's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
To help get inflation under control. The RBA has stated inflation is its key priority, and with this remaining sticky and above target, it is likely the Board will move to increase the cash rate.
 

Trent Wiltshire

+ Read Trent Wiltshire's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
The upside risks to the inflation outlook have partly eventuated, and the RBA has signalled in recent comments they will raise rates to lower inflation and inflation expectations.
 

Mala Raghavan

+ Read Mala Raghavan's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
With inflation remaining above target, tight labour market conditions easing only gradually, and geopolitical tensions continuing to generate supply-side cost pressures, the RBA is likely to maintain a tough stance on interest rates this time and increase the cash rate despite concerns about economic sluggishness in some sectors. The US Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hike has further strengthened the case for tighter monetary policy. If the RBA fails to take action, it could lead to a weaker dollar, higher import prices, and increased domestic inflationary pressures. This situation reinforces the need for the RBA to focus on containing inflation.
 

Nalini Prasad

+ Read Nalini Prasad's full forecast

August
HOLD
September
Raise
Inflation remains a concern. It's remained high. The RBA will want to keep a hold of inflation expectations in the face of higher oil prices and concerns about government debt levels.
 

Tomasz Wozniak

+ Read Tomasz Wozniak's full forecast

August
N/A
September
Raise
It’s a likely RAISE! My forecasting system indicates an 82 percent probability of such an outcome. All the bond yield curve models say so, but not those that rely on international rates or cash rate dynamics alone. A rate hike seems in line with the RBA’s recent communication, the cash rate staying above the target and inflationary pressures. My forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
 

Mark O'Flynn

+ Read Mark O'Flynn's full forecast

August
N/A
September
Raise
Higher inflation that target
 

Dr Craig Emerson

+ Read Dr Craig Emerson's full forecast

August
N/A
September
Raise
The RBA has almost explicitly said it will increase the cash rate.
 

Mark Crosby

+ Read Mark Crosby's full forecast

August
N/A
September
Hold
Despite indicators of rising inflation there is equally evidence of a weakening economy that would warrant a wait and see approach for another few months.
 

Sophia Angala

+ Read Sophia Angala's full forecast

August
N/A
September
Raise
Underlying inflation has proved more persistent than expected, while the re-escalation in the Middle East conflict and higher oil prices have increased the risk of second-round inflation effects. As a result, we expect the RBA to raise the cash rate by 25bp in both September and November 2026.
 

Why you can trust our research

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The Reserve Bank of Australia sets the official cash rate target. This is a benchmark rate that has a big impact on home loan interest rates, savings accounts and other credit products.

What is the official cash rate?

One of the Reserve Bank's primary roles is setting monetary policy for the Australian economy. This involves setting the cash rate (or to use its full name, the official cash rate target).

At a technical level, the cash rate is actually the interest rate banks pay for borrowing money from each other overnight. Banks use this to manage liquidity and issue funds as needed.

Australian banks can borrow and deposit money with the RBA at just below the current cash rate target.

How the official cash rate target affects interest rates

But for the average Australian consumer, the cash rate is really useful as a broad benchmark for the interest rates on home loans and savings accounts. A high cash rate makes borrowing money more expensive and sees home loan repayments rise.

A low cash rate makes it cheaper to borrow money. This boosts borrowing and spending.

How has the cash rate changed over time?

The Reserve Bank adjusts the official cash rate target over time in response to various economic data, including:

  • Inflation
  • The unemployment rate
  • Global economic factors

The cash rate stayed at the then record low of 1.50% from 2016 to 2019, when the RBA lowered it further in response to low inflation and slightly higher unemployment.

Then as the Covid-19 pandemic began to hurt the Australian economy the RBA dropped the cash rate even further. This was to make borrowing cheaper and stimulate a struggling economy. The cash rate hit the record low of 0.10% during this time.

Over the last few years the RBA has lifted the cash rate very quickly to combat inflation, with a few cuts in between.

How does the RBA's cash rate decisions affect your finances?

The RBA can do 3 things with the cash rate: Raise, lower or hold the cash rate at its current level.

Raise

If the RBA lifts the cash rate

When the cash rate rises, most lenders pass on the rate rise to borrowers on variable rate home loans.

If the cash rate rises by 25 basis points, then most borrowers will see 25 basis points added to their home loan's interest rate.

If you have a fixed rate home loan nothing changes. Your rate is locked in for the duration of the fixed period.

Banks may also increase interest rates on term deposits and high interest savings accounts. But in practice home loan rates rise faster than savings account rates.

Down

If the RBA lowers the cash rate

When the RBA lowers the cash rate, most lenders pass on some if not all of the cut to borrowers on variable rate home loans.

Banks also lower rates on savings accounts and other products.

If you have a home loan, it's a good idea to check if your lender has actually passed on the rate cut to you. If it hasn't, you may need to switch.

Hold

If the RBA holds the cash rate

A hold decision means the cash rate isn't changing this month. This means that your home loan or savings account rate likely won't change. You don't really have to do anything.

But banks and lenders change interest rates all the time for various reasons even if the RBA doesn't move the cash rate.

Calculate how much a cash rate cut will impact your home loan repayments

What is your repayment type?
Principal and interest
Interest only
What is your remaining loan amount?
$
What is your current interest rate?
%
How much is your rate going up by?
%
What is your loan term?
refinance arrow
With a new interest rate of , your monthly repayments will increase by .
You could save a month based on Finder's lowest refinance interest rate of
Compare your options in under a minute.
Compare my options now

Enter your loan amount, current interest rate and the latest cash rate change to quickly estimate how much your monthly repayments will change, and what your new repayment will be.

Example: how changes to the cash rate can change your loan repayments

You have a $600,000 home loan with a variable interest rate of 6.00%. It's a 30-year loan term with principal-and-interest repayments.

Your monthly repayments are $3,598.

⬆️ If the cash rate rises by 25 basis points your interest rate would increase to 6.25%. Your monthly repayments would now be $3,695. This would cost you an extra $97 a month or $1,164 a year.

⬇️ If the cash rate decreases by 25 basis points your interest rate would fall to 5.75%. Your monthly repayments would now be $3,502. This would save you $96 a month or $1,152 a year.

More questions about the RBA cash rate

RBA news and announcements

Finder's RBA Press Releases

Sources

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Richard Whitten is Finder’s Senior Money Editor, with over eight years of experience in home loans, property, credit cards and personal finance. His insights appear in top media outlets like Yahoo Finance, Money Magazine, and the Herald Sun, and he frequently offers expert commentary on television and radio, helping Australians navigate mortgages and property ownership. Richard started his career in education and textbook publishing in South Korea. He holds multiple industry certifications, including a Certificate IV in Mortgage Broking (RG 206) and Tier 1 and Tier 2 certifications (RG 146), as well as a Bachelor of Education from the University of Sydney and a Graduate Certificate in Communications from Deakin University. See full bio

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50 Responses

    mark's avatar
    markSeptember 4, 2025

    when will rates increase

      Richard Whitten's headshotFinder
      RichardSeptember 8, 2025Finder

      Hi Mark,

      At this stage it’s impossible to say. The outlook for the moment is for rates to either fall slightly further or stay where they are, over the next 6-12 months.

      Beyond that we just don’t know. For rates to start rising we’d need to see a big increase in inflation at least.

    Cutey's avatar
    CuteyJune 16, 2022

    When the RBA decreases the cash rate , does it mean it prints more money to increase money supply and thereby decreasing the borrowing rate. And if that is the case, does increasing the cash rate mean that the RBA has to extinguish some of the money supply thereby reducing the money available to borrow. I am assuming that RBA can’t just simply say the cash rate is this much, it has to increase/decrease money supply at the backend to make sure the cash rate stays at whatever level it wants to stay at.

      Richard Whitten's headshotFinder
      RichardJune 18, 2022Finder

      Hi,

      The cash rate determines the interest rate lenders can charge when lending money to each other at short notice (also called the overnight cash rate). Lenders and banks are always moving money around to cover different investments and expenses, including funding for home loans.

      So the cash rate affects their costs, and they pass this onto borrowers. Changing the cash rate target does nothing to the amount of money in the economy. It affects the cost of borrowing and lending money.

      The RBA does in effect create money sometimes, in a process called quantitative easing. This involves purchasing bonds from investors at a favourable rate, freeing up investor cash to go elsewhere in the economy. This is different to the cash rate.

      I hope this helps.

      Regards,
      Richard

    octo's avatar
    octoJune 18, 2018

    how long can AUD interest rate remain Low…..?

    how soon will the AUD follow the US FED Rate Hike…….?

    thank you

      Nikki Angco's avatar
      NikkiJune 20, 2018

      Hi Octo!

      Thanks for getting in touch!

      To know more information on your questions, you can fill in your email address in the box provided and you’ll be updated on RBA’s decisions on the official cash rate target.

      While we provide you with general information, please know that we don’t stand as a representation for RBA or any company featured on our site.

      Hope that clarifies!

      Cheers,
      Nikki

    Taneesha's avatar
    TaneeshaMay 24, 2018

    Do you think the cash rate will stay the same at the June RBA meeting?

      Joshua's avatarFinder
      JoshuaMay 24, 2018Finder

      Hi Taneesha,

      Thanks for getting in touch with finder. I hope all is well for you. :)

      Unfortunately, we are not in the best place to make a prediction. However, you might get an idea whether the RBA cash rate will rise or fall by looking at the factors that affect it. These factors may include:

      – Household debt
      – Inflation
      – Wage growth
      – Consumer Confidence Index
      – Unemployment

      I hope this helps. Should you have further questions, please don’t hesitate to reach us out again.

      Have a wonderful day!

      Cheers,
      Joshua

    Brook's avatar
    BrookMay 5, 2018

    What do you think that how the international economic condition influence the cash rate?

      Jeni Velasco's avatarFinder
      JeniMay 6, 2018Finder

      Hi Brook,

      Thank you for getting in touch with Finder.

      This is a nice question. Domestic financial conditions remain expansionary. There has been some tightening in short-term
      money markets, which has flowed through to a small increase in funding costs for a range of financial institutions and businesses. However, borrowing rates remain low for households and businesses. Growth in housing credit has eased since mid last year, particularly for credit extended to investors, while growth in business debt has remained moderate. The Australian dollar remains within its narrow range of the past two years. Financial market prices suggest that the cash rate is expected to remain unchanged this year and to increase around mid 2019. If you are eager to learn more about the domestic financial condition according to RBA, refer to the Domestic Economic Conditions file.

      I hope this helps.

      Have a great day!

      Cheers,
      Jeni

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