Finder’s RBA Survey: 3 in 4 experts tip a November hike, with RBA “determined to stop the inflation horse galloping off”

A rate hike is the odds-on favourite this Melbourne Cup Day, according to the majority of experts from Finder's poll.

In this month's Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey™, 40 experts and economists weighed in on future cash rate moves and other issues relating to the state of the economy.

3 in 4 panellists (75%, 30/40) expect the RBA to hike the cash rate on Tuesday, raising it to 4.85%.

Richard Whitten, home loans expert at Finder, said a hike would add more pressure to households already feeling the squeeze.

"If the RBA moves on Tuesday, that's five rate hikes in a single year. Most borrowers are feeling every one of them.

"Since January, the cash rate would have climbed 1.25 percentage points. On a $500,000 mortgage, that's roughly $258 a month ($3,094 per year) more that you're having to fork out compared to the start of the year – it's a huge hit to the budget.

"Lenders have been pretty quick to pass on each of these hikes. If you haven't already, now is the time to call your bank and ask for a better rate, or compare home loans to see if you could be paying less," Whitten said.

Scott Kuru from Freedom Property Investors is predicting a cash rate hike.

"It's odds-on for a rate rise on Melbourne Cup Day. The RBA has been talking tough about reining-in Australia's inflation problem and will be determined to stop the inflation horse galloping off," Kuru said.

However David Robertson from Bendigo Bank is tipping a hold.

"The latest inflation data will make this a very close call, but having already increased rates 4 times this year the RBA can pause in November.

"A split decision is likely, however while markets are clearly pricing in a hike I would prefer to see a more patient approach given recent jobs and spending data," Robertson said.

Expecting a hike isn't the same as thinking it's a good idea – just over half (55%, 22/40) of experts say they think the RBA should lift the cash rate in November.

Less than a third (28%, 11/40) expect another hike after November, and most of those (73%, 8/11) pencil it in for February 2027.

Most experts (80%, 32/40) expect the cash rate to be higher than the current 4.60% by March 2027.

More than 1 in 3 (37%) mortgage holders said they struggled to pay their home loan in October, according to data from Finder's Consumer Sentiment Tracker (CST).

A November hike will cost $658 per year for those with a $500,000 mortgage

Australians with a $500,000 mortgage will have to pay $55 more per month – $658 per year – compared to what they were paying last month.

Those with a $1,000,000 home loan will have to fork out $157 more per month – $1,881 per year – compared to October.

How much a November rate hike would cost compared to January 2026 (i.e. 5 rate hikes in 2026)

Compared to the start of the year, Australians with the average home loan size of $730,719 will have to pay $538 more per month – $6,460 more per year – if the RBA hikes the cash rate in November.

Those with a $1,000,000 mortgage will see their repayments up by $737 per month – a whopping $8,840 per year – compared to what they were paying in January 2026.

Recession fears grow as rates climb

Experts are growing more worried about a recession. Just over a third of panellists (35%, 12/34) who weighed in* now think a recession in the next six months is likely, up from 30% who said the same thing in September.

The same number (35%, 12/34) think a recession is unlikely, down from 40% in September.

Close to 1 in 3 (29%, 10/34) are on the fence.

*Experts are not required to answer every question in the survey.

Here's what our experts predicting a hold had to say about the cash rate:

David Robertson, Bendigo Bank (Hold): "The latest inflation data will make this a very close call, but having already increased rates 4 times this year the RBA can pause in November. A split decision is likely, however while markets are clearly pricing in a hike I would prefer to see a more patient approach given recent jobs and spending data."

Dr Andrew Wilson, My Housing Market (Hold): "Underlying inflation high but steady and emerging stress in labour market with jobless now rising to highest levels for some time will see RBA take a more cautious approach to rate rises and leave on hold over November"

Jeffrey Sheen, Macquarie University (Hold): "Headline inflation rose to 4.3% in September 2026, largely reflecting higher energy prices. By contrast, trimmed mean inflation increased only marginally, rising 0.1 percentage points to 3.6%. While this remains above the upper limit of the RBA's 2-3% target range, the modest increase suggests that underlying inflation pressures did not intensify significantly during the month. The RBA is likely to be particularly concerned that higher energy prices could become embedded in broader inflation through their effects on inflation expectations and wage- and price-setting behaviour. Consistent with this concern, long-run inflation expectations among business leaders stand at 3.8%, according to Macquarie University's BOSS survey. This suggests that many firms are not yet fully convinced the RBA will return inflation to target over the medium term. However, there is substantial disagreement among respondents, indicating these expectations are not firmly entrenched. Moreover, a range of economic indicators suggest the risk of a persistent inflation pass-through is diminishing. The RBA has already increased the cash rate four times this year, raising it by a cumulative one percentage point, and the effects of tighter monetary policy are continuing to work through the economy. Unemployment has risen to 4.7%, house prices have fallen 5.2% from their March peak, the trade-weighted exchange rate has appreciated by 4.5% this year, and consumer confidence has weakened sharply. Together, these developments are reducing demand pressures and should limit the extent to which temporary energy-price shocks feed into broader inflation. If tensions in the Middle East ease and energy prices stabilise, headline inflation could fall relatively quickly. Given the modest increase in underlying inflation and the growing evidence that monetary policy is dampening demand, I believe the RBA does not need to and will not raise the cash rate further in November, despite its concerns about inflation expectations"

Stephen Koukoulas, Market Economics (Hold): "The outlook points to very weak growth and marked deflationary pressures, especially from the labour market and household wealth destruction (falling housing prices)"

Craig Emerson, Emerson Economics (Hold): "The data do not warrant an increase and the RBA might be talking up a cash rate increase to modify behaviour."

Jakob Madsen, University of Western Australia (Hold): "Inflation remains elevated, with services inflation running at 3.7% over the year to August 2026. At the same time, domestic demand and consumer spending growth are showing signs of moderation, although business investment remains relatively strong. Holding the cash rate would allow the RBA to assess incoming data and the lagged effects of previous rate increases, balancing the risk of persistent inflation against the risk of unnecessarily weakening economic activity."

Mark Crosby, Monash University (Hold): "Despite warnings of further rate rises due to ongoing inflationary pressures, the real economy is stalling fast and warrants a wait and see approach."

Matt Turner, GSC Finance (Hold): "Whilst there is still risk of further inflation, based on conversations with our clients and business partners the latest rate rise has really slowed down the economy with many discretionary items & services really taking a hit. Our charity partners are now also reporting an increase in service requests from middle class households, and donations are well down. I believe that the RBA has done enough."

Jayden Vecchio, Hunter Galloway (Hold): "I expect the RBA to hold in November. We're seeing borrowers hold off on decisions while they try to work out where rates are heading. That uncertainty is already making people more cautious about how much they borrow and when they buy. I think the RBA will keep talking tough on inflation while giving this year's 4 rate increases more time to work."

Cameron Murray, Fresh Economic Thinking (Hold): "Weakness in housing and labour market suggests previous rate increases are softening activity, which the RBA might expect to flow through to low inflation soon."

Here's what our experts predicting an increase had to say about the cash rate:

Scott Kuru, Freedom Property Investors (Increase): "It's odds-on for a rate rise on Melbourne Cup Day. The RBA has been talking tough about reining-in Australia's inflation problem and will be determined to stop the inflation horse galloping off."

Shane Oliver, AMP (Increase): "RBA commentary and guidance has been hawkish and the higher than expected September inflation data along with ongoing upside risks to inflation leaves the RBA with little choice but to hike again."

Sveta Angelopoulos, RMIT University (Increase): "With domestic inflationary pressures proving persistent, compounded by rising global costs and continued international uncertainty, I believe the RBA has little choice but to increase the cash rate. The alternative is to risk inflation becoming more entrenched."

Stephen Miller, GSFM (Increase): "Inflation is too high."

Graham Cooke, Aussie Insights (Increase): "While it's almost 50/50 for this decision, RBA has indicated that stubborn inflation means another rate hike is required - so it could be this decision or the next one."

Tim Nelson, Griffith University (Increase): "Underlying inflation is higher than the target band and appears to be persistent."

Tomasz Wozniak, University of Melbourne (Increase): "We seem to be up for another one! My forecasting system indicates an 88 percent probability of a RAISE in the cash rate. Most of my models say so, delivering exceptionally high chances of such an outcome. A rate hike seems in line with increasing inflation and the RBA's communication for such an occasion. My forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/"

Nalini Prasad (Increase): "Inflation has come in higher than expected. In order to ensure that individual's inflation expectations remain contained the RBA will need to increase interest rates."

Anthony Waldron, Mortgage Choice (Increase): "Governor Bullock has been clear the RBA Board will make its decisions based on data. With the latest ABS figures showing inflation has continued to rise, I expect this will give the Board reason to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points next Tuesday."

Sam White, Loan Market (Increase): "With the latest CPI data showing inflation is remaining high, the RBA may be forced to increase the cash rate again. The board has repeatedly said its key focus is to bring inflation back within target and the longer it remains high, the greater the long-term impacts."

Kyle Rodda, Capital.com (Increase): "Inflation is above target and doesn't appear to be moving in the right direction."

Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons (Increase): "While inflation remains above the target range, we feel the rise in unemployment demands a holding pattern. Obviously, inflationary pressures persist but this is due to matters largely beyond consumers' control. Burdening mortgage holders is not proving effective in the context of these external factors."

Stella Huangfu, University of Sydney (Increase): "Today's CPI figures reinforce the case for another rate increase in November. Annual headline inflation rose to 4.3% in September, up from 4.0% in August, while trimmed mean inflation increased to 3.6%. More concerningly, quarterly trimmed mean inflation reached 1.0%, indicating persistent underlying price pressures. With inflation remaining well above the RBA's 2–3% target range, I expect the RBA to raise the cash rate by another 25 basis points in November."

Evgenia Dechter, UNSW (Increase): "Inflation is still too high with persistent underlying inflation. It is a difficult call because economic growth is weak and unemployment is increasing, but at this stage the RBA is likely to put more weight on curbing inflation."

Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists (Increase): "The RBA is likely to raise interest rates again at its November meeting because inflation is not only above target, but above the RBA's August forecasts. The RBA is especially worried that above-target inflation is becoming embedded in people's expectations and pricing decisions so it wants to make clear that it is going to fight inflation. The RBA is unlikely to place significant emphasis on easing in the labour market, even though it was more than it forecast."

Saul Eslake, Corinna Economic Advisory (Increase): "The latest inflation data show that the RBA's preferred measure of 'underlying' inflation is still running well above the upper end of its target band, let alone the mid-point of it - and senior RBA officials appear to be expressing diminishing tolerance for persistently above-target inflation (and, conversely, a greater willingness to accept temporarily higher unemployment as a side effect of doing what they think has to be done to get inflation back to target)."

Geoffrey Kingston, Macquarie University Business School (Increase): "The latest CPI data have made a November rate hike almost certain. The underlying problem is the failure of our governments, especially the Commonwealth government, to signal serious intent to rein in fiscal deficits even when the business cycle is close to a peak. Specifically, spending cuts are needed because tax hikes would stifle growth."

Trent Wiltshire, RLB (Increase): "Even with a deteriorating labour market, inflation is too high and is being driven by domestic pressures. The RBA will raise rates and signal potential further rate rises to contain inflation and anchor inflation expectations."

Cameron Kusher, Kusher Consulting (Increase): "Inflation is still too high and well above what the RBA has been forecasting, rates need to increase."

Mathew Tiller, LJ Hooker Group (Increase): "I expect the RBA to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points. Inflation is still too high and the latest figures give the Bank little reason to leave rates unchanged. Higher fuel prices contributed to the rise, but housing costs remain under pressure. For the property market, another increase would put further pressure on borrowing capacity and keep buyers cautious."

James Morley, University of Sydney (Increase): "Both headline and underlying inflation have come in higher than previously forecasted and the RBA is clearly worried higher inflation could become entrenched in expectations. So I expect them to raise rates again and be hawkish about the necessity of bringing forecasted inflation back towards target and anchoring expectations."

Garry Barrett, University of Sydney (Increase): "Underlying inflation persistently outside target range coupled with enduring drivers of price increases"

Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics (Increase): "The RBA seems to have been telegraphing its intentions to do so, though I'm not sure it is well advised."

Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo, University of Melbourne (Increase): "I think it will be a close call between a rate hold and a 25bp rate rise at this meeting, with the rate rise being marginally more likely given recent hawkish commentary from senior RBA officials."

Dale Gillham, Wealth Within Group (Increase): "CPI is remaining sticky and not coming down as expected."

Mala Raghavan, UTAS (Increase): "With inflation remaining above the RBA's target range, labour market conditions easing only gradually, and ongoing geopolitical tensions contributing to higher energy prices and persistent supply-side constraints, the RBA is likely to maintain a relatively hawkish monetary policy stance. Despite concerns about weak consumer confidence and sluggish activity in some sectors of the economy, the RBA's primary objective remains restoring price stability. Therefore, it will likely continue "holding the line" against inflation until there is clear evidence that inflation is sustainably returning to target."

Adj Prof Noel Whittaker, QUT (Increase): "Just a month since our last forecast, and the outlook has gone from bad to worse. Everywhere you turn, people are talking about rising costs, while the building industry continues to struggle with shortages of both labour and materials. These are hardly the conditions for inflation to ease. Much as I would prefer otherwise, I simply cannot see how the Reserve Bank can avoid raising interest rates."

Tom Devitt, Housing Industry Association (Increase): "Above-target trimmed mean inflation and expectations of wage-push inflation from EBAs linked to inflation, and global factors. Subsequent decisions will also depend on whether the November hike is 0.25% or 0.5%."

Peter Boehm, Pathfinder Consulting (Increase): "One clear reason - inflation is still way too high in Australia. Plus, the RBA stated today that the inflation outlook is "materially worsen than expected". Given the present and future outlook for inflation is not good, and to avoid it becoming catastrophic, the RBA cannot sit on its hands and wait for inflation to worsen. The RBA must act now - it has no alternative. And so rates will increase and probably continue to increase next year as well."

Nicholas Frappell, ABC Refinery (Increase): "Concerns around persistent inflation pressures from both external and domestically driven factors make it marginally likely that the RBA will raise to get ahead."