RBA interest rate decision prediction

The official cash rate is 4.60%. 75% of Finder's economists and experts predict a rate increase at the next RBA meeting.

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Richard Whitten

Updated

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Key takeaways

  • The official cash rate is now 4.60%. The Reserve Bank raised the rate to a 15-year high at its September meeting.
  • 75% of Finder's experts predict another cash rate hike at the next meeting.
  • The Reserve Bank meets again on 3 November 2026 to set the benchmark interest rate.

Attention! Bank rates are changing

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RBA cash rate (2018–present)

A chart showing the change in the official cash rate over time. The graph heads steadily downward until its lowest point in 2022 before rising rapidly.

RBA cash rate (2018–present)
DateCash rate
May-20181.5
Jun-20181.5
Jul-20181.5
Aug-20181.5
Sep-20181.5
Oct-20181.5
Nov-20181.5
Dec-20181.5
Jan-20191.5
Feb-20191.5
Mar-20191.5
Apr-20191.5
May-20191.5
Jun-20191.25
Jul-20191
Aug-20191
Sep-20191
Oct-20190.75
Nov-20190.75
Dec-20190.75
Jan-20200.75
Feb-20200.75
Mar-20200.25
Apr-20200.25
May-20200.25
Jun-20200.25
Jul-20200.25
Aug-20200.25
Sep-20200.25
Oct-20200.25
Nov-20200.1
Dec-20200.1
Jan-20210.1
Feb-20210.1
Mar-20210.1
Apr-20210.1
May-20210.1
Jun-20210.1
Jul-20210.1
Aug-20210.1
Sep-20210.1
Oct-20210.1
Nov-20210.1
Dec-20210.1
Jan-20220.1
Feb-20220.1
Mar-20220.1
Apr-20220.1
May-20220.35
Jun-20220.85
Jul-20221.35
Aug-20221.85
Sep-20222.35
Oct-20222.6
Nov-20222.85
Dec-20223.1
Jan-20233.1
Feb-20233.35
Mar-20233.6
Apr-20233.6
May-20233.85
Jun-20234.1
Jul-20234.1
Aug-20234.1
Sep-20234.1
Oct-20234.1
Nov-20234.35
Dec-20234.35
Jan-20244.35
Feb-20244.35
Mar-20244.35
Apr-20244.35
May-20244.35
Jun-20244.35
Jul-20244.35
Aug-20244.35
Sep-20244.35
Oct-20244.35
Nov-20244.35
Dec-20244.35
Jan-20254.35
Feb-20254.1
Mar-20254.1
Apr-20254.1
May-20253.85
Jun-20253.85
Jul-20253.85
Aug-20253.6
Sep-20253.6
Nov-20253.6
Dec-20253.6
Feb-20263.85
Mar-20264.1
May-20264.35
Jun-20264.35
Aug-20264.35
Sept-20264.6
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia

Finder's lowest home loan rates

A graph showing 4 lines, for fixed and variable interest rates for investor and owner-occupier loans.

Finder's lowest home loan rates
MonthVariable (owner occupier)Fixed (owner occupier)Variable (investment)Fixed (investment)
May-20183.493.693.793.89
Jun-20183.523.693.793.89
Jul-20183.493.693.793.89
Aug-20183.543.743.933.84
Sep-20183.493.743.893.84
Oct-20183.543.743.793.84
Nov-20183.543.743.793.84
Dec-20183.493.693.743.84
Jan-20193.493.743.743.89
Feb-20193.493.743.743.84
Mar-20193.493.743.743.84
Apr-20193.483.743.913.84
May-20193.483.593.743.69
Jun-20193.243.393.693.69
Jul-20192.893.193.493.39
Aug-20192.892.983.293.09
Sep-20192.892.743.193
Oct-20192.692.742.993
Nov-20192.692.682.992.84
Dec-20192.692.682.992.84
Jan-20202.692.682.992.84
Feb-20202.692.682.992.84
Mar-20202.492.682.792.84
Apr-20202.442.092.792.39
May-20202.392.092.792.29
Jun-20202.392.092.792.34
Jul-20202.191.992.792.34
Aug-20201.991.992.742.29
Sep-20201.991.982.592.29
Oct-20201.991.92.592.29
Nov-20201.991.982.642.29
Dec-20201.991.892.331.99
Jan-20211.991.882.331.99
Feb-20211.991.882.331.99
Mar-20211.991.692.331.99
Apr-20211.951.692.241.99
May-20211.951.692.241.99
Jun-20211.91.672.241.99
Jul-20211.891.672.241.89
Aug-20211.891.692.321.99
Sep-20211.851.692.321.99
Oct-20211.851.592.241.89
Nov-20211.851.592.241.89
Dec-20211.771.592.241.89
Jan-20221.851.792.172.14
Feb-20221.771.792.141.99
Mar-20221.771.841.991.99
Apr-20221.791.841.991.99
May-20221.791.842.142.39
Jun-20222.042.092.392.69
Jul-20222.442.592.793.59
Aug-20223.053.593.243.99
Sep-20223.143.993.594.29
Oct-20223.544.193.844.19
Nov-20223.444.494.194.59
Dec-20224.294.64.574.84
Jan-20234.294.644.594.79
Feb-20234.394.944.645.09
Mar-20234.644.994.975.19
Apr-20234.644.995.144.99
May-20234.644.995.144.99
Jun-20235.345.245.295.44
Jul-20235.395.235.895.56
Aug-20235.395.235.795.53
Sep-20235.395.485.795.54
Oct-20235.395.485.745.56
Nov-20235.595.485.745.56
Dec-20235.745.485.695.58
Jan-20245.695.485.695.58
Feb-20245.695.485.695.58
Mar-20245.695.485.695.58
Apr-20245.695.485.945.58
May-20245.695.485.945.58
Jun-20245.695.485.945.58
Jul-20245.695.485.945.58
Aug-20245.695.595.945.69
Sep-20245.695.595.945.69
Oct-20245.694.995.944.99
Nov-20245.694.995.944.99
Dec-20245.694.995.944.99
Jan-20255.694.995.944.99
Feb-20255.384.995.544.99
Mar-20255.444.995.845.29
Apr-20255.644.995.795.29
May-20255.594.995.794.99
Jun-20255.344.995.594.99
Jul-20255.344.995.594.99
Aug-20255.344.945.594.99
Sep-20255.094.645.344.89
Oct-20254.994.645.344.69
Nov-20254.994.644.994.69
Dec-20254.994.645.344.74
Jan-20264.994.795.294.99
Feb-20264.994.945.294.99
Mar-20265.15.25.355.2
Apr-20265.195.495.355.59
May-20265.355.75.65.7
Jun-20265.695.995.855.99
Jul-20265.145.995.855.99
Aug-20265.695.995.855.99
Sep-20265.695.795.945.89
Oct-20265.795.795.945.89
Source: Finder

These graphs show movements in the official cash rate over time and changes to the market's lowest home loan rates over the same period. You can see how the market responds by raising or lowering rates broadly in line with the RBA's decisions.

Insights and analysis by 40+ economists, Richard Whitten and Sarah Megginson – Finder money experts

How often are Finder's expert predictions correct?

The latest cash rate analysis from the experts

Finder regularly surveys 40+ economists and property experts to forecast the RBA's next cash rate decision and get insights into the future of the Australian economy. Here are the most recent cash rate predictions.

Peter Boehm

+ Read Peter Boehm's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
One clear reason - inflation is still way too high in Australia. Plus, the RBA stated today that the inflation outlook is "materially worsen than expected". Given the present and future outlook for inflation is not good, and to avoid it becoming catastrophic, the RBA cannot sit on its hands and wait for inflation to worsen. The RBA must act now - it has no alternative. And so rates will increase and probably continue to increase next year as well.
 

Saul Eslake

+ Read Saul Eslake's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
The latest inflation data show that the RBA's preferred measure of 'underlying' inflation is still running well above the upper end of its target band, let alone the mid-point of it - and senior RBA officials appear to be expressing diminishing tolerance for persistently above-target inflation (and, conversely, a greater willingness to accept temporarily higher unemployment as a side effect of doing what they think has to be done to get inflation back to target).
 

Stella Huangfu

+ Read Stella Huangfu's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
Today’s CPI figures reinforce the case for another rate increase in November. Annual headline inflation rose to 4.3% in September, up from 4.0% in August, while trimmed mean inflation increased to 3.6%. More concerningly, quarterly trimmed mean inflation reached 1.0%, indicating persistent underlying price pressures. With inflation remaining well above the RBA’s 2–3% target range, I expect the RBA to raise the cash rate by another 25 basis points in November.
 

Kyle Rodda

+ Read Kyle Rodda's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
Inflation is above target and doesn't appear to be moving in the right direction.
 

Nicholas Gruen

+ Read Nicholas Gruen's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
The RBA seems to have been telegraphing its intentions to do so, though I'm not sure it is well advised.
 

Garry Barrett

+ Read Garry Barrett's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
Underlying inflation persistently outside target range coupled with enduring drivers of price increases
 

Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo

+ Read Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
I think it will be a close call between a rate hold and a 25bp rate rise at this meeting, with the rate rise being marginally more likely given recent hawkish commentary from senior RBA officials.
 

Geoffrey Kingston

+ Read Geoffrey Kingston's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
The latest CPI data have made a November rate hike almost certain. The underlying problem is the failure of our governments, especially the Commonwealth government, to signal serious intent to rein in fiscal deficits even when the business cycle is close to a peak. Specifically, spending cuts are needed because tax hikes would stifle growth.
 

Mathew Tiller

+ Read Mathew Tiller's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
I expect the RBA to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points. Inflation is still too high and the latest figures give the Bank little reason to leave rates unchanged. Higher fuel prices contributed to the rise, but housing costs remain under pressure. For the property market, another increase would put further pressure on borrowing capacity and keep buyers cautious.
 

James Morley

+ Read James Morley's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
Both headline and underlying inflation have come in higher than previously forecasted and the RBA is clearly worried higher inflation could become entrenched in expectations. So I expect them to raise rates again and be hawkish about the necessity of bringing forecasted inflation back towards target and anchoring expectations.
 

Tim Nelson

+ Read Tim Nelson's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
Underlying inflation is higher than the target band and appears to be persistent.
 

Noel Whittaker

+ Read Noel Whittaker's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
Just a month since our last forecast, and the outlook has gone from bad to worse. Everywhere you turn, people are talking about rising costs, while the building industry continues to struggle with shortages of both labour and materials. These are hardly the conditions for inflation to ease. Much as I would prefer otherwise, I simply cannot see how the Reserve Bank can avoid raising interest rates.
 

David Robertson

+ Read David Robertson's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Hold
The latest inflation data will make this a very close call, but having already increased rates 4 times this year the RBA can pause in November. A split decision is likely, however while markets are clearly pricing in a hike I would prefer to see a more patient approach given recent jobs and spending data.
 

Cameron Murray

+ Read Cameron Murray's full forecast

September
HOLD
November
Hold
Weakness in housing and labour market suggests previous rate increases are softening activity, which the RBA might expect to flow through to low inflation soon.
 

Matt Turner

+ Read Matt Turner's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Hold
Whilst there is still risk of further inflation, based on conversations with our clients and business partners the latest rate rise has really slowed down the economy with many discretionary items & services really taking a hit. Our charity partners are now also reporting an increase in service requests from middle class households, and donations are well down. I believe that the RBA has done enough.
 

Michael Yardney

+ Read Michael Yardney's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
The RBA is likely to raise interest rates again at its November meeting because inflation is not only above target, but above the RBA's August forecasts. The RBA is especially worried that above-target inflation is becoming embedded in people’s expectations and pricing decisions so it wants to make clear that it is going to fight inflation. The RBA is unlikely to place significant emphasis on easing in the labour market, even though it was more than it forecast.
 

Jakob Madsen

+ Read Jakob Madsen's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Hold
Inflation remains elevated, with services inflation running at 3.7% over the year to August 2026. At the same time, domestic demand and consumer spending growth are showing signs of moderation, although business investment remains relatively strong. Holding the cash rate would allow the RBA to assess incoming data and the lagged effects of previous rate increases, balancing the risk of persistent inflation against the risk of unnecessarily weakening economic activity.
 

Jeffrey Sheen

+ Read Jeffrey Sheen's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Hold
Headline inflation rose to 4.3% in September 2026, largely reflecting higher energy prices. By contrast, trimmed mean inflation increased only marginally, rising 0.1 percentage points to 3.6%. While this remains above the upper limit of the RBA's 2-3% target range, the modest increase suggests that underlying inflation pressures did not intensify significantly during the month. The RBA is likely to be particularly concerned that higher energy prices could become embedded in broader inflation through their effects on inflation expectations and wage- and price-setting behaviour. Consistent with this concern, long-run inflation expectations among business leaders stand at 3.8%, according to Macquarie University's BOSS survey. This suggests that many firms are not yet fully convinced the RBA will return inflation to target over the medium term. However, there is substantial disagreement among respondents, indicating these expectations are not firmly entrenched. Moreover, a range of economic indicators suggest the risk of a persistent inflation pass-through is diminishing. The RBA has already increased the cash rate four times this year, raising it by a cumulative one percentage point, and the effects of tighter monetary policy are continuing to work through the economy. Unemployment has risen to 4.7%, house prices have fallen 5.2% from their March peak, the trade-weighted exchange rate has appreciated by 4.5% this year, and consumer confidence has weakened sharply. Together, these developments are reducing demand pressures and should limit the extent to which temporary energy-price shocks feed into broader inflation. If tensions in the Middle East ease and energy prices stabilise, headline inflation could fall relatively quickly. Given the modest increase in underlying inflation and the growing evidence that monetary policy is dampening demand, I believe the RBA does not need to and will not raise the cash rate further in November, despite its concerns about inflation expectations
 

Shane Oliver

+ Read Shane Oliver's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
RBA commentary and guidance has been hawkish and the higher than expected September inflation data along with ongoing upside risks to inflation leaves the RBA with little choice but to hike again,
 

Leanne Pilkington

+ Read Leanne Pilkington's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
While inflation remains above the target range, we feel the rise in unemployment demands a holding pattern. Obviously, inflationary pressures persist but this is due to matters largely beyond consumers' control. Burdening mortgage holders is not proving effective in the context of these external factors.
 

Scott Kuru

+ Read Scott Kuru's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
It's odds-on for a rate rise on Melbourne Cup Day. The RBA has been talking tough about reining-in Australia's inflation problem and will be determined to stop the inflation horse galloping off.
 

Stephen Koukoulas

+ Read Stephen Koukoulas's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Hold
The outlook points to very weak growth and marked deflationary pressures, especially from the labour market and household wealth destruction (falling housing prices)
 

Dr Andrew Wilson

+ Read Dr Andrew Wilson's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Hold
Underlying inflation high but steady and emerging stress in labour market with jobless now rising to highest levels for some time will see RBA take a more cautious approach to rate rises and leave on hold over November
 

Anthony Waldron

+ Read Anthony Waldron's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
"Governor Bullock has been clear the RBA Board will make its decisions based on data. With the latest ABS figures showing inflation has continued to rise, I expect this will give the Board reason to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points next Tuesday.”
 

Dale Gillham

+ Read Dale Gillham's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
CPI is remaining sticky and not coming down as expected.
 

Evgenia Dechter

+ Read Evgenia Dechter's full forecast

September
HOLD
November
Raise
Inflation is still too high with persistent underlying inflation. It is a difficult call because economic growth is weak and unemployment is increasing, but at this stage the RBA is likely to put more weight on curbing inflation.
 

Stephen Miller

+ Read Stephen Miller's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
Inflation is too high.
 

Nicholas Frappell

+ Read Nicholas Frappell's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
Concerns around persistent inflation pressures from both external and domestically driven factors make it marginally likely that the RBA will raise to get ahead.
 

Cameron Kusher

+ Read Cameron Kusher's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
Inflation is still too high and well above what the RBA has been forecasting, rates need to increase.
 

Graham Cooke

+ Read Graham Cooke's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
While it's almost 50/50 for this decision, RBA has indicated that stubborn inflation means another rate hike is required - so it could be this decision or the next one.
 

Sam White

+ Read Sam White's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
With the latest CPI data showing inflation is remaining high, the RBA may be forced to increase the cash rate again. The board has repeatedly said its key focus is to bring inflation back within target and the longer it remains high, the greater the long-term impacts.
 

Trent Wiltshire

+ Read Trent Wiltshire's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
Even with a deteriorating labour market, inflation is too high and is being driven by domestic pressures. The RBA will raise rates and signal potential further rate rises to contain inflation and anchor inflation expectations.
 

Mala Raghavan

+ Read Mala Raghavan's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
With inflation remaining above the RBA’s target range, labour market conditions easing only gradually, and ongoing geopolitical tensions contributing to higher energy prices and persistent supply-side constraints, the RBA is likely to maintain a relatively hawkish monetary policy stance. Despite concerns about weak consumer confidence and sluggish activity in some sectors of the economy, the RBA’s primary objective remains restoring price stability. Therefore, it will likely continue "holding the line" against inflation until there is clear evidence that inflation is sustainably returning to target.
 

Nalini Prasad

+ Read Nalini Prasad's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
Inflation has come in higher than expected. In order to ensure that individual's inflation expectations remain contained the RBA will need to increase interest rates.
 

Tomasz Wozniak

+ Read Tomasz Wozniak's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Raise
We seem to be up for another one! My forecasting system indicates an 88 percent probability of a RAISE in the cash rate. Most of my models say so, delivering exceptionally high chances of such an outcome. A rate hike seems in line with increasing inflation and the RBA’s communication for such an occassion. My forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
 

Dr Craig Emerson

+ Read Dr Craig Emerson's full forecast

September
RAISE
November
Hold
The data do not warrant an increase and the RBA might be talking up a cash rate increase to modify behaviour.
 

Mark Crosby

+ Read Mark Crosby's full forecast

September
HOLD
November
Hold
Despite warnings of further rate rises due to ongoing inflationary pressures, the real economy is stalling fast and warrants a wait and see approach.
 

Sveta Angelopoulos

+ Read Sveta Angelopoulos's full forecast

September
N/A
November
Raise
With domestic inflationary pressures proving persistent, compounded by rising global costs and continued international uncertainty, I believe the RBA has little choice but to increase the cash rate. The alternative is to risk inflation becoming more entrenched.
 

Thomas Devitt

+ Read Thomas Devitt's full forecast

September
N/A
November
Raise
Above-target trimmed mean inflation and expectations of wage-push inflation from EBAs linked to inflation, and global factors. Subsequent decisions will also depend on whether the November hike is 0.25% or 0.5%.
 

Jayden Vecchio

+ Read Jayden Vecchio's full forecast

September
N/A
November
Hold
I expect the RBA to hold in November. We’re seeing borrowers hold off on decisions while they try to work out where rates are heading. That uncertainty is already making people more cautious about how much they borrow and when they buy. I think the RBA will keep talking tough on inflation while giving this year’s 4 rate increases more time to work.
 

Why you can trust our research

  • 40+ economists surveyed each month
  • 15 years of data and analysis
  • 1000+ home loan rates tracked

The Reserve Bank of Australia sets the official cash rate target. This is a benchmark rate that has a big impact on home loan interest rates, savings accounts and other credit products.

What is the official cash rate?

One of the Reserve Bank's primary roles is setting monetary policy for the Australian economy. This involves setting the cash rate (or to use its full name, the official cash rate target).

At a technical level, the cash rate is actually the interest rate banks pay for borrowing money from each other overnight. Banks use this to manage liquidity and issue funds as needed.

Australian banks can borrow and deposit money with the RBA at just below the current cash rate target.

How the official cash rate target affects interest rates

But for the average Australian consumer, the cash rate is really useful as a broad benchmark for the interest rates on home loans and savings accounts. A high cash rate makes borrowing money more expensive and sees home loan repayments rise.

A low cash rate makes it cheaper to borrow money. This boosts borrowing and spending.

How has the cash rate changed over time?

The Reserve Bank adjusts the official cash rate target over time in response to various economic data, including:

  • Inflation
  • The unemployment rate
  • Global economic factors

The cash rate stayed at the then record low of 1.50% from 2016 to 2019, when the RBA lowered it further in response to low inflation and slightly higher unemployment.

Then as the Covid-19 pandemic began to hurt the Australian economy the RBA dropped the cash rate even further. This was to make borrowing cheaper and stimulate a struggling economy. The cash rate hit the record low of 0.10% during this time.

Over the last few years the RBA has lifted the cash rate very quickly to combat inflation, with a few cuts in between.

How does the RBA's cash rate decisions affect your finances?

The RBA can do 3 things with the cash rate: Raise, lower or hold the cash rate at its current level.

Raise

If the RBA lifts the cash rate

When the cash rate rises, most lenders pass on the rate rise to borrowers on variable rate home loans.

If the cash rate rises by 25 basis points, then most borrowers will see 25 basis points added to their home loan's interest rate.

If you have a fixed rate home loan nothing changes. Your rate is locked in for the duration of the fixed period.

Banks may also increase interest rates on term deposits and high interest savings accounts. But in practice home loan rates rise faster than savings account rates.

Down

If the RBA lowers the cash rate

When the RBA lowers the cash rate, most lenders pass on some if not all of the cut to borrowers on variable rate home loans.

Banks also lower rates on savings accounts and other products.

If you have a home loan, it's a good idea to check if your lender has actually passed on the rate cut to you. If it hasn't, you may need to switch.

Hold

If the RBA holds the cash rate

A hold decision means the cash rate isn't changing this month. This means that your home loan or savings account rate likely won't change. You don't really have to do anything.

But banks and lenders change interest rates all the time for various reasons even if the RBA doesn't move the cash rate.

Calculate how much a cash rate cut will impact your home loan repayments

What is your repayment type?
Principal and interest
Interest only
What is your remaining loan amount?
$
What is your current interest rate?
%
How much is your rate going up by?
%
What is your loan term?
refinance arrow
With a new interest rate of , your monthly repayments will increase by .
You could save a month based on Finder's lowest refinance interest rate of
Compare your options in under a minute.
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Enter your loan amount, current interest rate and the latest cash rate change to quickly estimate how much your monthly repayments will change, and what your new repayment will be.

Example: how changes to the cash rate can change your loan repayments

You have a $600,000 home loan with a variable interest rate of 6.00%. It's a 30-year loan term with principal-and-interest repayments.

Your monthly repayments are $3,598.

⬆️ If the cash rate rises by 25 basis points your interest rate would increase to 6.25%. Your monthly repayments would now be $3,695. This would cost you an extra $97 a month or $1,164 a year.

⬇️ If the cash rate decreases by 25 basis points your interest rate would fall to 5.75%. Your monthly repayments would now be $3,502. This would save you $96 a month or $1,152 a year.

More questions about the RBA cash rate

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Finder's RBA Press Releases

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Richard Whitten is Finder’s Senior Money Editor, with over eight years of experience in home loans, property, credit cards and personal finance. His insights appear in top media outlets like Yahoo Finance, Money Magazine, and the Herald Sun, and he frequently offers expert commentary on television and radio, helping Australians navigate mortgages and property ownership. Richard started his career in education and textbook publishing in South Korea. He holds multiple industry certifications, including a Certificate IV in Mortgage Broking (RG 206) and Tier 1 and Tier 2 certifications (RG 146), as well as a Bachelor of Education from the University of Sydney and a Graduate Certificate in Communications from Deakin University. See full bio

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50 Responses

    mark's avatar
    markSeptember 4, 2025

    when will rates increase

      Richard Whitten's headshotFinder
      RichardSeptember 8, 2025Finder

      Hi Mark,

      At this stage it’s impossible to say. The outlook for the moment is for rates to either fall slightly further or stay where they are, over the next 6-12 months.

      Beyond that we just don’t know. For rates to start rising we’d need to see a big increase in inflation at least.

    Cutey's avatar
    CuteyJune 16, 2022

    When the RBA decreases the cash rate , does it mean it prints more money to increase money supply and thereby decreasing the borrowing rate. And if that is the case, does increasing the cash rate mean that the RBA has to extinguish some of the money supply thereby reducing the money available to borrow. I am assuming that RBA can’t just simply say the cash rate is this much, it has to increase/decrease money supply at the backend to make sure the cash rate stays at whatever level it wants to stay at.

      Richard Whitten's headshotFinder
      RichardJune 18, 2022Finder

      Hi,

      The cash rate determines the interest rate lenders can charge when lending money to each other at short notice (also called the overnight cash rate). Lenders and banks are always moving money around to cover different investments and expenses, including funding for home loans.

      So the cash rate affects their costs, and they pass this onto borrowers. Changing the cash rate target does nothing to the amount of money in the economy. It affects the cost of borrowing and lending money.

      The RBA does in effect create money sometimes, in a process called quantitative easing. This involves purchasing bonds from investors at a favourable rate, freeing up investor cash to go elsewhere in the economy. This is different to the cash rate.

      I hope this helps.

      Regards,
      Richard

    octo's avatar
    octoJune 18, 2018

    how long can AUD interest rate remain Low…..?

    how soon will the AUD follow the US FED Rate Hike…….?

    thank you

      Nikki Angco's avatar
      NikkiJune 20, 2018

      Hi Octo!

      Thanks for getting in touch!

      To know more information on your questions, you can fill in your email address in the box provided and you’ll be updated on RBA’s decisions on the official cash rate target.

      While we provide you with general information, please know that we don’t stand as a representation for RBA or any company featured on our site.

      Hope that clarifies!

      Cheers,
      Nikki

    Taneesha's avatar
    TaneeshaMay 24, 2018

    Do you think the cash rate will stay the same at the June RBA meeting?

      Joshua's avatarFinder
      JoshuaMay 24, 2018Finder

      Hi Taneesha,

      Thanks for getting in touch with finder. I hope all is well for you. :)

      Unfortunately, we are not in the best place to make a prediction. However, you might get an idea whether the RBA cash rate will rise or fall by looking at the factors that affect it. These factors may include:

      – Household debt
      – Inflation
      – Wage growth
      – Consumer Confidence Index
      – Unemployment

      I hope this helps. Should you have further questions, please don’t hesitate to reach us out again.

      Have a wonderful day!

      Cheers,
      Joshua

    Brook's avatar
    BrookMay 5, 2018

    What do you think that how the international economic condition influence the cash rate?

      Jeni Velasco's avatarFinder
      JeniMay 6, 2018Finder

      Hi Brook,

      Thank you for getting in touch with Finder.

      This is a nice question. Domestic financial conditions remain expansionary. There has been some tightening in short-term
      money markets, which has flowed through to a small increase in funding costs for a range of financial institutions and businesses. However, borrowing rates remain low for households and businesses. Growth in housing credit has eased since mid last year, particularly for credit extended to investors, while growth in business debt has remained moderate. The Australian dollar remains within its narrow range of the past two years. Financial market prices suggest that the cash rate is expected to remain unchanged this year and to increase around mid 2019. If you are eager to learn more about the domestic financial condition according to RBA, refer to the Domestic Economic Conditions file.

      I hope this helps.

      Have a great day!

      Cheers,
      Jeni

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