Finder’s RBA Survey: “No case for a cut” on Melbourne Cup day

Sticky inflation is set to keep the RBA's hand firmly on the reins in November, according to Finder's poll.

In this month's Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey™, 35 experts and economists weighed in on future cash rate moves and other issues relating to the state of the economy.

The majority of experts (86%, 30/35) expect the RBA to hold the cash rate next week, keeping it at 3.60%.

Just 14% of panelists (5/35) are tipping a rate cut following Wednesday's CPI data. This is a significant reversal from September when nearly 7 in 10 (69%) were predicting a cash rate cut in November.

Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said Melbourne Cup day isn't shaping up to be a winning one for borrowers.

"This time last month there was plenty of optimism for a rate cut in November – that's largely evaporated.

"The RBA wants to see inflation sit somewhere between 2 and 3 percent, and it just edged above the top threshold.

"The RBA will want to see that number trending down again before relieving any more cash rate pressure," Cooke said.

Mark Crosby from Monash University said there was no case for a cut.

"The question is whether the latest inflation number is a blip or a trend," Crosby said.

Saul Eslake from Corinna Economic Advisory agreed.

"The 'materially' higher-than-expected September quarter CPI has dealt a fatal blow to hopes of a rate cut in November, and reduced (although in my honest opinion, not fatally) the chances of a rate cut in February next year," Eslake said.

Jeffrey Sheen from Macquarie University is one of the few experts predicting a rate cut.

"Though the RBA Board will be concerned about the mixed messages, I expect them to cut the cash rate in recognition that the downside macroeconomic risks dominate," Sheen said.

Micaela Fuchila from Jarden is also tipping a cut.

"At this point in the cycle focus is expected to shift to the labour market. Employment growth has slowed and the unemployment rate is on the rise while inflation pressures remain contained," Fuchila said.

2 in 3 experts (66%, 23/35) predict at least one more rate cut from the RBA in the next 12 months.

However, there is less certainty about when this cut will come. The largest proportion (34%, 12/35) of economists are predicting a cut in February 2026.

Over a third of homeowners struggling with their mortgage

More than 1 in 3 (36%) homeowners said they struggled to pay their mortgage in October, according to Finder's Consumer Sentiment Tracker.

More than 2 in 3 experts who weighed in* (68%, 17/25) expect mortgage delinquencies and arrears to remain stable, while 20% (5/25) expect them to fall.

Cooke said just because the RBA is unlikely to cut the cash rate this month doesn't mean you can't give yourself one.

"Even trimming half a percentage point off your home loan could save you thousands of dollars a year.

"A number of lenders are also offering cashback – up to $4,000 – for refinancing, which could be worthwhile for some borrowers looking for a cash injection," Cooke said.

*Experts are not required to answer every question in the survey.

Here's what our experts had to say:

Micaela Fuchila, Jarden (Decrease): "At this point in the cycle focus is expected to shift to the labour market. Employment growth has slowed and the unemployment rate is on the rise while inflation pressures remain contained."

Jeffrey Sheen, Macquarie University (Decrease): "The Australian economy has for some time in 2025 been close to its longer run average for inflation, GDP growth and unemployment, which suggests to me that monetary policy should already be neutral, not mildly restrictive. The September 2025 unemployment rate jumped to 4.5% and the Q2 trimmed mean inflation rate was 2.7%, which should have provided enough extra evidence for the RBA to decide to cut the cash rate by 25 basis points in November. However, trimmed mean inflation increased marginally to 3% in the 3rd quarter 2025 (which was largely expected because of the expiry of government rebates for electricity). Though the RBA Board will be concerned about the mixed messages, I expect them to cut the cash rate in recognition that the downside macroeconomic risks dominate."

Brodie Haupt, WLTH (Decrease): "Unemployment unexpectedly surged in September to a 4-year high with some experts fearful of a stalling economy."

Tomasz Wozniak, University of Melbourne (Decrease): "It's definitely a possibility! That's what market participants think. Different forces are pulling in opposite directions, and no one is 100% certain about the course of action. And that's what my forecasts indicate: the bond yield curve models for the monthly data set on the CUT, but weekly data models and other specifications indicate a HOLD decision. The former usually forecasts more precisely, and therefore it's a CUT. But I'm not 100% certain :) My forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/"

Stephen Koukoulas, Market Economics (Decrease): "Rising unemployment risks hitting 5% while monetary policy remains tight."

Scott Kuru, Freedom Property Investors (Hold): "Here's a sure Melbourne Cup Day bet; No RBA rate cut. But for those hoping that no November rate cut might slow the property market - think again."

James Morley, University of Sydney (Hold): "The RBA will be focused on inflation and the Q3 numbers confirmed for them that they cannot ease policy too quickly. They will have noted the uptick in the unemployment rate. And if it continues and persists, they will cut again sooner. But I don't think that is the most likely outcome. Instead, the labour market will remain tight or at least balanced."

Aarti Singh, University of Sydney (Hold): "Inflation rose again and is just outside the RBA's 2-3 percent band."

Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo, University of Melbourne (Hold): "The latest inflation data is uncomfortably high, which indicates that the RBA is unlikely to ease its policy."

Mark Crosby, Monash University (Hold): "No case for a cut and the question is whether the latest inflation number is a blip or a trend."

Tim Nelson, Griffith University (Hold): "Inflation has crept up and previous thinking about cuts will be moderated until data shows inflation is back within the accepted band."

Saul Eslake, Corinna Economic Advisory Pty Ltd (Hold): "The 'materially' higher -than-expected September quarter CPI has dealt a fatal blow to hopes of a rate cut in November, and reduced (although IMHO not fatally) the chances of a rate cut in February next year."

Shane Oliver, AMP (Hold): "The high reading for trimmed mean inflation will keep the RBA on hold in November, but will still expect higher unemployment and slower inflation to drive a cut next year."

Craig Emerson, Emerson Economics Pty Ltd (Hold): "The CPI numbers released on 29 October were higher than the RBA expected."

Evgenia Dechter, UNSW (Hold): "With inflation coming in higher than expected, the RBA is unlikely to cut the cash rate at its November meeting. However, the larger than expected rise in the unemployment rate is putting downward pressure on the cash rate. In future meetings, the RBA will have to weigh both persistent inflation and a softening labour market when setting policy."

Geoffrey Kingston, Macquarie University Business School (Hold): "The Bank's initial response to emerging stagflation will probably be to keep rates on hold. Around the middle of next year there could be a cut in response to high unemployment. Around the end of next year, however, we may see the beginning of another tightening cycle."

Stella Huangfu, University of Sydney (Hold): "The September-quarter CPI showed inflation running hotter than expected, with both headline and trimmed mean inflation sitting at or above the upper end of the RBA's 2–3% target range. While the labour market is cooling and household spending has softened, inflationary pressures in housing and services remain persistent. Given this, the RBA will likely wait for clearer signs that inflation is easing before considering further cuts."

Nalini Prasad, UNSW Sydney (Hold): "Unemployment is trending up and inflation is trending down, allowing the RBA to take a wait and see approach at this meeting."

Mala Raghavan, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics (Hold): "In the twelve months leading up to the September 2025 quarter, Australia's inflation rate rose to 3.2%, up from 2.1% in the June 2025 quarter. A significant driver of this recent surge in inflation is the housing sector. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has seen a slight uptick, reaching 4.5% in September. Despite this increase, the Australian labour market remains relatively tight. Considering these economic indicators, the rising inflation coupled with a modestly increasing unemployment rate, the RBA will likely maintain the current cash rate rather than make any adjustments at this time."

Garry Barrett, University of Sydney (Hold): "Persistently high CPI rises."

Stephen Miller, GSFM (Hold): "Inflation is too high for a November rate cut but the RBA will probably be driven to ease by a weakening labour market."

Kyle Rodda, Capital.com (Hold): "Underlying inflation has surprisingly picked-up and there's a risk prices rise above the central bank's target band."

MICHAEL YARDNEY, Metropole Property Strategists Pty Ltd (Hold): "Annual inflation to the September 2025 quarter was 3.2 per cent, up from 2.1 per cent to the June 2025 quarter. This is the highest annual inflation rate since the June 2024 quarter when annual inflation was 3.8 per cent. While the RBA was surprised by September's jump in the unemployment figures, the fact that inflation is creeping up again and clearly not in control will mean the RBA will keep rates on hold."

Mathew Tiller, LJ Hooker Group (Hold): "I expect the RBA to hold in November. The jobs market is showing signs of softening, but with inflation edging back above 3%, the Bank will want to see clearer progress before making its next move."

Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons (Hold): "The Reserve Bank has shown its preference is to act only when it deems necessary, and the slight rise in core inflation points to a hold, despite the slight uptick in unemployment. Nevertheless, we feel at least one further cut is warranted in this cycle."

David Robertson, Bendigo Bank (Hold): "The uptick in core inflation to 1% for Q3 and 3% annually will likely see the RBA on hold for the balance of the year, keeping the official cash rate at 3.6%, slightly above neutral. With more data we should still get one more cut in the cycle, in early 2026."

Adj Prof Noel Whittaker, QUT (Hold): "Inflation is not under control. And governments are still spending recklessly. There's also no evidence of wide mortgage stress. There is no reason to cut."

Tim Reardon, Housing Industry Association (Hold): "Rising house prices and rents, combined with population growth pushing demand, will keep trimmed mean above what is necessary to see two more rate cuts in this cycle."

Peter Boehm, Pathfinder Consulting (Hold): "There needs to be more evidence that inflation is under control before a rate reduction ought to be considered. Although the unemployment figures lean towards a rate cut, the main focus of the RBA, inflation, has not yet been tamed."

Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics (Hold): "My guess is that the bank will hold this month but the economy will be weaker in December. They'll also be going on holidays which could also tilt the balance towards cutting. (It's rate setting function shouldn't take a holiday any more than other essential services should, but the Bank enjoys its perks.)"

Filip Tortevski, Wealth Within (Hold): "Consumer sentiment sliding, Job growth sliding, Unemployment rising and productivity falling. Inflation sitting at 2.1% which is well within the target band."

Jakob Madsen, UWA (Hold): "The cash rate will be held constant for a while, but at some stage it has to increase because funding interest rates will go up; not because of increasing inflation, but because the increasing government debt in the world and the aging population will push rates up."

Adelaide Timbrell, ANZ (Hold): "Evolving rhetoric from the RBA suggests we are approaching the end of the easing cycle. We expect the last cash rate cut will take the cash rate to 3.35% and is likely to occur in February. We consider the current cash rate of 3.6% to be relatively close to a neutral rate."

Matt Turner, GSC Finance (Hold): "Inflation is still a bit sticky and build costs may increase with greater demand on construction thanks to the new 5% Deposit Scheme rules. Rates are now historically average, and a lot of clients are now increasing debt rather than looking to downsize. I think the RBA has now done enough."

Cameron Murray, Fresh Economic Thinking (Hold): "Just a stab in the dark based on global cyclical patterns emerging."