Finder’s RBA Survey: Easing cycle ends as RBA delivers first rate hike since 2023
After no movement in 2024, and three cuts in 2025 the Reserve Bank of Australia started off 2026 with a cash rate hike.
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In this month's Finder RBA Cash Rate Surveyâ„¢, 33 experts and economists weighed in on future cash rate moves and other issues relating to the state of the economy.
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More than half of the experts from Finder's RBA panel (51%, 17/33) correctly predicted the rate hike, bringing the cash rate to 3.85% in February.
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Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said the RBA is sending a clear signal that the inflation genie isn't back in the bottle just yet.
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"Our research showed mortgage stress on average had started to subside – expect it to rise with a vengeance as monthly payments jump.
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"If inflation persists, expect more of last year's mortgage stress relief to be wiped away."
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Impact of February 2026 rate rise on mortgage repayments
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| Loan amount | Old monthly repayment (Nov 2025) | New monthly repayment (Feb 2026) | Monthly increase | Annual increase |
| $693,802 | $3,935 | $4,044 | $109 | $1,313 |
| $750,000 | $4,254 | $4,372 | $118 | $1,420 |
| $1,000,000 | $5,672 | $5,829 | $158 | $1,893 |
| Source: Finder, RBA. *Owner-occupier variable discounted rate. Repayments based on a 30 year loan term with P&I repayment at a monthly frequency. |  |
Economists warn of global market risks following government pressure on the Federal Reserve in the United States
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In light of US President Donald Trump investigating and pressuring current Fed chair Jerome Powell to lower rates, economists were asked about the potential dangers and impacts of this behaviour.
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Experts suggested that this sort of behaviour will hurt a central bank's credibility and also drive up the cost of goods.
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Nicholas Gruen, CEO of Lateral Economics said the danger was obvious.
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"It will destroy the Fed's credibility and make inflation harder to manage," Gruen said.
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Kyle Rodda, market analyst at Capital.com said this action could lead to a higher risk premium in US Treasuries which would then in turn bleed into Australian bond prices.
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Craig Emerson of Emerson Economics took it a step further, suggesting global confidence would plunge and it could create recessionary conditions.
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James Morley, professor of Macroeconomics at University of Sydney said doing this would create "huge dangers" for the US economy but for Australia, the likely consequence would be a stronger dollar."
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Tim Reardon, economist for Housing Industry Association said governments setting rates won't bring markets to a halt, but it is a concern.
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"Governments set interest rates prior to the 1980s. They weren't very good at it, but it occurred for 50 years.
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"Regardless of the US, elevated interest rates and a higher AUD will impair exports at a time when other countries are competing in a global market where demand for coal and iron ore isn't growing as seen in earlier decades.
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"The loss of mining as a driver of activity is more of a concern to the AU economy," Reardon said.
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Australian property prices projected to grow 4.19% over next 12 months
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Economists predict property prices will continue to climb by an average of 4.19% across all major capital cities over the next 12 months.
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Perth will lead the country with a property price increase of 5.3% over the next 12 months.
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Brisbane is expected to follow closely with a forecast growth rate of 4.8%, while Sydney property prices are anticipated to rise by 4.7% during the same period.
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Adelaide is projected to see a growth of 3.2%, followed by Melbourne with a predicted increase of 3.1%.
| How much do you expect property prices to move over the next 12 months? | |
| Perth | 5.30% |
| Brisbane | 4.80% |
| Sydney | 4.70% |
| Adelaide | 3.20% |
| Melbourne | 3.10% |
| Australia (weighted average) | 4.19% |
| Source: Finder RBA Cash Rate survey of 21 economists, February 2026 | |
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