The RBA held the official cash rate at 3.60%. 86% of Finder's economists and experts correctly predicted the decision.
The official cash rate is:
3.60%
The RBA's next interest rate decision is on:
09 December 2025
Of the experts surveyed by Finder for November:
86% predicted today's decision.
"Mixed economic signals have kept the RBA in a holding pattern. While spending remains strong, rising inflation and increasing unemployment add complexity to the decision-making process."
These graphs show movements in the official cash rate over time and changes to the market's lowest home loan rates over the same period. You can see how the market responds by raising or lowering rates broadly in line with the RBA's decisions.
How often are Finder's expert predictions correct?
The latest cash rate analysis from the experts
Finder regularly surveys 40+ economists and property experts to forecast the RBA's next cash rate decision and get insights into the future of the Australian economy. Here are the most recent cash rate predictions.
The September-quarter CPI showed inflation running hotter than expected, with both headline and trimmed mean inflation sitting at or above the upper end of the RBA’s 2–3% target range. While the labour market is cooling and household spending has softened, inflationary pressures in housing and services remain persistent. Given this, the RBA will likely wait for clearer signs that inflation is easing before considering further cuts.
It's definitely a possibility! That's what market participants think. Different forces are pulling in opposite directions, and no one is 100% certain about the course of action. And that's what my forecasts indicate: the bond yield curve models for the monthly data set on the CUT, but weekly data models and other specifications indicate a HOLD decision. The former usually forecasts more precisely, and therefore it's a CUT. But I'm not 100% certain :) My forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
My guess is that the bank will hold this month but the economy will be weaker in December. They'll also be going on holidays which could also tilt the balance towards cutting. (It's rate setting function shouldn't take a holiday any more than other essential services should, but the Bank enjoys its perks.)
The Bank’s initial response to emerging stagflation will probably be to keep rates on hold. Around the middle of next year the could be a cut in response to high unemployment. Around the end of next year, however, we may see the beginning of another tightening cycle.
I expect the RBA to hold in November. The jobs market is showing signs of softening, but with inflation edging back above 3%, the Bank will want to see clearer progress before making its next move.
The RBA will be focused on inflation and the Q3 numbers confirmed for them that they cannot ease policy too quickly. They will have noted the uptick in the unemployment rate. And if it continues and persists, they will cut again sooner. But I don't think that is the most likely outcome. Instead, the labour market will remain tight or at least balanced.
There needs to be more evidence that inflation is under control before a rate reduction ought to be considered. Although the unemployment figures lean towards a rate cut, the main focus of the RBA, inflation, has not yet been tamed.
Inflation is not under control. And governments are still spending recklessly. There's also no evidence of wide mortgage stress. There is no reason to cut.
The uptick in core inflation to 1% for Q3 and 3% annually will likely see the RBA on hold for the balance of the year, keeping the official cash rate at 3.6%, slightly above neutral. With more data we should still get one more cut in the cycle, in early 2026.
The 'materially' higher -than-expected September quarter CPI has dealt a fatal blow to hopes of a rate cut in November, and reduced (although IMHO not fatally) the chances of a rate cut in February next year.
Inflation still a bit sticky and build costs may increase with greater demand on construction thanks to the new 5% Deposit Scheme rules. Rates are now historically average, and a lot of clients are now increasing debt rather than looking to downsize. I think the RBA has now done enough.
Annual inflation to the September 2025 quarter was 3.2 per cent, up from 2.1 per cent to the June 2025 quarter. This is the highest annual inflation rate since the June 2024 quarter when annual inflation was 3.8 per cent. While the RBA was surprised by September's jump in the unemployment figures, the fact that inflation is creeping up again and clearly not in control will mean the RBA will keep rates on hold.
The cash rate will be held constant for a while, but at some stage it has to increase because funding interest rates will go up; not because of increasing inflation, but because the increasing government debt in the world and the aging population will push rates up.
The Australian economy has for some time in 2025 been close to its longer run average for inflation, GDP growth and unemployment, which suggests to me that monetary policy should already be neutral, not mildly restrictive. The September 2025 unemployment rate jumped to 4.5% and the Q2 trimmed mean inflation rate was 2.7%, which should have provided enough extra evidence for the RBA to decide to cut the cash rate by 25 basis points in November. However, trimmed mean inflation increased marginally to 3% in the 3rd quarter 2025 (which was largely expected because of the expiry of government rebates for electricity). Though the RBA Board will be concerned about the mixed messages, I expect them to cut the cash rate in recognition that the downside macroeconomic risks dominate.
The high reading for trimmed mean inflation will keep the RBA on hold in November, but will still expect higher unemployment and slower inflation to drive a cut next year.
In the twelve months leading up to the September 2025 quarter, Australia's inflation rate rose to 3.2%, up from 2.1% in the June 2025 quarter. A significant driver of this recent surge in inflation is the housing sector. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has seen a slight uptick, reaching 4.5% in September. Despite this increase, the Australian labour market remains relatively tight. Considering these economic indicators, the rising inflation coupled with a modestly increasing unemployment rate, the RBA will likely maintain the current cash rate rather than make any adjustments at this time.
With inflation coming in higher than expected, the RBA is unlikely to cut the cash rate at its November meeting. However, the larger than expected rise in the unemployment rate is putting downward pressure on the cash rate. In future meetings, the RBA will have to weigh both persistent inflation and a softening labour market when setting policy.
The Reserve Bank has shown its preference is to act only when it deems necessary, and the slight rise in core inflation points to a hold, despite the slight uptick in unemployment. Nevertheless, we feel at least one further cut is warranted in this cycle.
Rising house prices and rents, combined with population growth pushing demand, will keep trimmed mean above what is necessary to see two more rate cuts in this cycle.
At this point in the cycle focus is expected to shift to the labour market. Employment growth has slowed and the unemployment rate is on the rise while inflation pressures remain contained.
Consumer sentiment sliding, Job growth sliding, Unemployment rising and productivity falling. Inflation sitting at 2.1% which is well within the target band.
Evolving rhetoric from the RBA suggests we are approaching the end of the easing cycle. We expect the last cash rate cut will take the cash rate to 3.35% and is likely to occur in February. We consider the current cash rate of 3.6% to be relatively close to a neutral rate.
Rising unemployment risks hitting 5% while monetary policy remains tight.
Why you can trust our research
40+ economists surveyed each month
15 years of data and analysis
1000+ home loan rates tracked
The Reserve Bank of Australia sets the official cash rate target. This is a benchmark rate that has a big impact on home loan interest rates, savings accounts and other credit products.
What is the official cash rate?
One of the Reserve Bank's primary roles is setting monetary policy for the Australian economy. This involves setting the cash rate (or to use its full name, the official cash rate target).
At a technical level, the cash rate is actually the interest rate banks pay for borrowing money from each other overnight. Banks use this to manage liquidity and issue funds as needed.
Australian banks can borrow and deposit money with the RBA at just below the current cash rate target.
How the official cash rate target affects interest rates
But for the average Australian consumer, the cash rate is really useful as a broad benchmark for the interest rates on home loans and savings accounts. A high cash rate makes borrowing money more expensive and sees home loan repayments rise.
A low cash rate makes it cheaper to borrow money. This boosts borrowing and spending.
How has the cash rate changed over time?
The Reserve Bank adjusts the official cash rate target over time in response to various economic data, including:
Inflation
The unemployment rate
Global economic factors
The cash rate stayed at the then record low of 1.50% from 2016 to 2019, when the RBA lowered it further in response to low inflation and slightly higher unemployment.
Then as the Covid-19 pandemic began to hurt the Australian economy the RBA dropped the cash rate even further. This was to make borrowing cheaper and stimulate a struggling economy. The cash rate hit the record low of 0.10% during this time.
Now, with inflation soaring the RBA has lifted the cash rate very quickly to try to slow demand and curb price rises.
How does the RBA's cash rate decisions affect your finances?
The RBA can do 3 things with the cash rate: Raise, lower or hold the cash rate at its current level.
If the RBA lifts the cash rate
When the cash rate rises, most lenders pass on the rate rise to borrowers on variable rate home loans.
If the cash rate rises by 25 basis points, then most borrowers will see 25 basis points added to their home loan's interest rate.
If you have a fixed rate home loan nothing changes. Your rate is locked in for the duration of the fixed period.
When the RBA lowers the cash rate, most lenders pass on some if not all of the cut to borrowers on variable rate home loans.
Banks also lower rates on savings accounts and other products.
If you have a home loan, it's a good idea to check if your lender has actually passed on the rate cut to you. If it hasn't, you may need to switch.
If the RBA holds the cash rate
A hold decision means the cash rate isn't changing this month. This means that your home loan or savings account rate likely won't change. You don't really have to do anything.
But banks and lenders change interest rates all the time for various reasons even if the RBA doesn't move the cash rate.
Calculate how much a cash rate cut will impact your home loan repayments
Enter your loan amount, current interest rate and the latest cash rate change to quickly estimate how much your monthly repayments will change, and what your new repayment will be.
Example: how changes to the cash rate can change your loan repayments
You have a $600,000 home loan with a variable interest rate of 6.00%. It's a 30-year loan term with principal-and-interest repayments.
Your monthly repayments are $3,598.
⬆️ If the cash rate rises by 25 basis points your interest rate would increase to 6.25%. Your monthly repayments would now be $3,695. This would cost you an extra $97 a month or $1,164 a year.
⬇️ If the cash rate decreases by 25 basis points your interest rate would fall to 5.75%. Your monthly repayments would now be $3,502. This would save you $96 a month or $1,152 a year.
More questions about the RBA cash rate
Lenders are free to change interest rates on their products whenever they want. The cash rate is a big influence on rates, but there are many other factors. This includes a lender's own funding costs, the amount of deposits the lender has and how competitive it wants to be to attract new customers.
The RBA changes the cash rate target based on a range of factors including inflation, the performance of the Aussie dollar, unemployment, the housing market, and Australia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
For example, if inflation rises above the target rate it means that Australians are spending their money too freely and prices are increasing too rapidly. But if the RBA raises interest rates to make it more expensive to borrow money, the economy will settle and price increases will slow down.
Conversely, the RBA will drop interest rates if inflation is too low and the economy is stagnating, encouraging more Australians to spend more money and stimulate economic growth.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is the country's central bank. The RBA's monetary policy has three key objectives which are set out in the Reserve Bank Act 1959:
The stability of the currency of Australia.
The maintenance of full employment in Australia.
The economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia.
Setting the official cash rate is one of the bank's key tools to influence monetary policy, inflation and the broader Australian economy. The bank's board meets on the first Tuesday of every month except January to set the cash rate. The RBA will either cut, raise or hold the cash rate.
The RBA's board of governors meets 8 times a year, in February, March, May, June, August, September, November and December. It is here that the board makes a decision on the official cash rate target.
The board used to meet 11 times a year, on every first Tuesday of the month apart from January. It lessened the number of times it meets to provide more time for change between meetings.
However, the RBA can alter the cash rate at any time outside of the meetings. This is rare, but can happen. In March 2020, in response to the onset of the COVID pandemic, the bank cut the cash rate twice. Once at the scheduled meeting and then again mid-month at a special emergency meeting.
Check out more RBA news and Finder's RBA survey press releases
It was almost certain the RBA would hold the cash rate next week, until the unemployment figures came out. Now, the latest inflation data has given us a clearer indication.
After the RBA cut interest rates for the third time this year, it's a great time for borrowers to assess their own rate. But finding a lower rate doesn't always mean you should switch.
Richard Whitten is Finder’s Senior Money Editor, with over eight years of experience in home loans, property, credit cards and personal finance. His insights appear in top media outlets like Yahoo Finance, Money Magazine, and the Herald Sun, and he frequently offers expert commentary on television and radio, helping Australians navigate mortgages and property ownership. Richard started his career in education and textbook publishing in South Korea. He holds multiple industry certifications, including a Certificate IV in Mortgage Broking (RG 206) and Tier 1 and Tier 2 certifications (RG 146), as well as a Bachelor of Education from the University of Sydney and a Graduate Certificate in Communications from Deakin University. See full bio
Richard's expertise
Richard has written 669 Finder guides across topics including:
Home loans
Credit cards
Personal finance
Money-saving tips
Get rewarded $$ for switching with Finder Rewards
Find a better deal, save on your bills and get a free gift card. Sign up to be the first to hear about new Finder Rewards.
At this stage it’s impossible to say. The outlook for the moment is for rates to either fall slightly further or stay where they are, over the next 6-12 months.
Beyond that we just don’t know. For rates to start rising we’d need to see a big increase in inflation at least.
CuteyJune 16, 2022
When the RBA decreases the cash rate , does it mean it prints more money to increase money supply and thereby decreasing the borrowing rate. And if that is the case, does increasing the cash rate mean that the RBA has to extinguish some of the money supply thereby reducing the money available to borrow. I am assuming that RBA can’t just simply say the cash rate is this much, it has to increase/decrease money supply at the backend to make sure the cash rate stays at whatever level it wants to stay at.
Finder
RichardJune 18, 2022Finder
Hi,
The cash rate determines the interest rate lenders can charge when lending money to each other at short notice (also called the overnight cash rate). Lenders and banks are always moving money around to cover different investments and expenses, including funding for home loans.
So the cash rate affects their costs, and they pass this onto borrowers. Changing the cash rate target does nothing to the amount of money in the economy. It affects the cost of borrowing and lending money.
The RBA does in effect create money sometimes, in a process called quantitative easing. This involves purchasing bonds from investors at a favourable rate, freeing up investor cash to go elsewhere in the economy. This is different to the cash rate.
I hope this helps.
Regards,
Richard
octoJune 18, 2018
how long can AUD interest rate remain Low…..?
how soon will the AUD follow the US FED Rate Hike…….?
thank you
NikkiJune 20, 2018
Hi Octo!
Thanks for getting in touch!
To know more information on your questions, you can fill in your email address in the box provided and you’ll be updated on RBA’s decisions on the official cash rate target.
While we provide you with general information, please know that we don’t stand as a representation for RBA or any company featured on our site.
Hope that clarifies!
Cheers,
Nikki
TaneeshaMay 24, 2018
Do you think the cash rate will stay the same at the June RBA meeting?
Finder
JoshuaMay 24, 2018Finder
Hi Taneesha,
Thanks for getting in touch with finder. I hope all is well for you. :)
Unfortunately, we are not in the best place to make a prediction. However, you might get an idea whether the RBA cash rate will rise or fall by looking at the factors that affect it. These factors may include:
I hope this helps. Should you have further questions, please don’t hesitate to reach us out again.
Have a wonderful day!
Cheers,
Joshua
BrookMay 5, 2018
What do you think that how the international economic condition influence the cash rate?
Finder
JeniMay 6, 2018Finder
Hi Brook,
Thank you for getting in touch with Finder.
This is a nice question. Domestic financial conditions remain expansionary. There has been some tightening in short-term
money markets, which has flowed through to a small increase in funding costs for a range of financial institutions and businesses. However, borrowing rates remain low for households and businesses. Growth in housing credit has eased since mid last year, particularly for credit extended to investors, while growth in business debt has remained moderate. The Australian dollar remains within its narrow range of the past two years. Financial market prices suggest that the cash rate is expected to remain unchanged this year and to increase around mid 2019. If you are eager to learn more about the domestic financial condition according to RBA, refer to the Domestic Economic Conditions file.
A rate cut appears imminent, and not just one, according to a new poll from Finder.
Important information about this website
Finder makes money from featured partners, but editorial opinions are our own.
Finder is one of Australia's leading comparison websites. We are committed to our readers and stand by our editorial principles.
We try to take an open and transparent approach and provide a broad-based comparison service. However, you should be aware that while we are an independently owned service, our comparison service does not include all providers or all products available in the market.
Some product issuers may provide products or offer services through multiple brands, associated companies or different labeling arrangements. This can make it difficult for consumers to compare alternatives or identify the companies behind the products. However, we aim to provide information to enable consumers to understand these issues.
We make money by featuring products on our site. Compensation received from the providers featured on our site can influence which products we write about as well as where and how products appear on our page, but the order or placement of these products does not influence our assessment or opinions of them, nor is it an endorsement or recommendation for them.
Products marked as 'Top Pick', 'Promoted' or 'Advertisement' are prominently displayed either as a result of a commercial advertising arrangement or to highlight a particular product, provider or feature. Finder may receive remuneration from the Provider if you click on the related link, purchase or enquire about the product. Finder's decision to show a 'promoted' product is neither a recommendation that the product is appropriate for you nor an indication that the product is the best in its category. We encourage you to use the tools and information we provide to compare your options.
Where our site links to particular products or displays 'Go to site' buttons, we may receive a commission, referral fee or payment when you click on those buttons or apply for a product.
When products are grouped in a table or list, the order in which they are initially sorted may be influenced by a range of factors including price, fees and discounts; commercial partnerships; product features; and brand popularity. We provide tools so you can sort and filter these lists to highlight features that matter to you.
Please read our website terms of use and privacy policy for more information about our services and our approach to privacy.
We update our data regularly, but information can change between updates. Confirm details with the provider you're interested in before making a decision.
How likely would you be to recommend Finder to a friend or colleague?
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Very UnlikelyExtremely Likely
Required
Thank you for your feedback.
Our goal is to create the best possible product, and your thoughts, ideas and suggestions play a major role in helping us identify opportunities to improve.
when will rates increase
Hi Mark,
At this stage it’s impossible to say. The outlook for the moment is for rates to either fall slightly further or stay where they are, over the next 6-12 months.
Beyond that we just don’t know. For rates to start rising we’d need to see a big increase in inflation at least.
When the RBA decreases the cash rate , does it mean it prints more money to increase money supply and thereby decreasing the borrowing rate. And if that is the case, does increasing the cash rate mean that the RBA has to extinguish some of the money supply thereby reducing the money available to borrow. I am assuming that RBA can’t just simply say the cash rate is this much, it has to increase/decrease money supply at the backend to make sure the cash rate stays at whatever level it wants to stay at.
Hi,
The cash rate determines the interest rate lenders can charge when lending money to each other at short notice (also called the overnight cash rate). Lenders and banks are always moving money around to cover different investments and expenses, including funding for home loans.
So the cash rate affects their costs, and they pass this onto borrowers. Changing the cash rate target does nothing to the amount of money in the economy. It affects the cost of borrowing and lending money.
The RBA does in effect create money sometimes, in a process called quantitative easing. This involves purchasing bonds from investors at a favourable rate, freeing up investor cash to go elsewhere in the economy. This is different to the cash rate.
I hope this helps.
Regards,
Richard
how long can AUD interest rate remain Low…..?
how soon will the AUD follow the US FED Rate Hike…….?
thank you
Hi Octo!
Thanks for getting in touch!
To know more information on your questions, you can fill in your email address in the box provided and you’ll be updated on RBA’s decisions on the official cash rate target.
While we provide you with general information, please know that we don’t stand as a representation for RBA or any company featured on our site.
Hope that clarifies!
Cheers,
Nikki
Do you think the cash rate will stay the same at the June RBA meeting?
Hi Taneesha,
Thanks for getting in touch with finder. I hope all is well for you. :)
Unfortunately, we are not in the best place to make a prediction. However, you might get an idea whether the RBA cash rate will rise or fall by looking at the factors that affect it. These factors may include:
– Household debt
– Inflation
– Wage growth
– Consumer Confidence Index
– Unemployment
I hope this helps. Should you have further questions, please don’t hesitate to reach us out again.
Have a wonderful day!
Cheers,
Joshua
What do you think that how the international economic condition influence the cash rate?
Hi Brook,
Thank you for getting in touch with Finder.
This is a nice question. Domestic financial conditions remain expansionary. There has been some tightening in short-term
money markets, which has flowed through to a small increase in funding costs for a range of financial institutions and businesses. However, borrowing rates remain low for households and businesses. Growth in housing credit has eased since mid last year, particularly for credit extended to investors, while growth in business debt has remained moderate. The Australian dollar remains within its narrow range of the past two years. Financial market prices suggest that the cash rate is expected to remain unchanged this year and to increase around mid 2019. If you are eager to learn more about the domestic financial condition according to RBA, refer to the Domestic Economic Conditions file.
I hope this helps.
Have a great day!
Cheers,
Jeni