Finder’s RBA Survey: Cash rate hike to cost the average borrower $1,359 per year

The RBA has raised the cash rate for the fourth time this year, bringing it to 4.60% – the highest level in 15 years.

In this month's Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey™, 41 experts and economists weighed in on future cash rate moves and other issues relating to the state of the economy.

The majority of panellists (90%, 37/41) correctly predicted the RBA's decision.

However, 48% (19/40*) expect at least one further hike by the end of 2026, with most tipping November.

Richard Whitten, home loans expert at Finder, said the fourth hike of the year would push some already stretched borrowers to breaking point.

"Mortgage holders have now had a full percentage point (100 basis points) added to their rate in less than a year. For some families, this will be the difference between just getting by, and going backwards.

"With almost half our panel predicting another hike before Christmas, this may not be the last one.

"Now is the time to pay close attention to the rate you're paying.

"If you spot a better deal elsewhere, ask your lender what they can do. If they won't budge, switch to a more competitive loan. A lower rate could wipe out the cost of today's hike," Whitten said.

Today's hike will cost $930 per year for those with a $500,000 mortgage

Australians with a $500,000 mortgage will have to pay $78 more per month – $930 per year – compared to what they were paying last month.

Those with a $1,000,000 home loan will have to fork out $155 more per month – $1,860 per year – compared to August.

How much the September rate hike will cost compared to August 2026

Loan size	Monthly: How much the interest rate hike will cost	Yearly: How much the interest rate hike will cost
$500,000	$78	$930
$730,719	$113	$1,359
$1,000,000	$155	$1,860
Source: Finder, RBA. Outstanding owner-occupied variable rate.
Analysis assumes today's 25 basis point increase is passed on in full by lenders. 6.2%p.a. is the average interest rate across active owner-occupier variable home loans according to the RBA. Therefore the calculations assume an average home loan rate of 6.45% p.a.
Average loan of $730,719 (ABS data analysed by Finder).
Analysis based on a 25-year home loan.

36% of young Aussies don't think they will ever own their own home

In H1 2026, 36% of 18-39 year olds said they don't think they will ever own their home, according to data from Finder's Consumer Sentiment Tracker (CST).

That's compared to just 13% who said the same thing back in H1 2019.

This represents a 2.7-fold increase in the prevalence of this attitude with young people since 2019.

Richard Whitten said it wasn't a huge surprise that more than a third of young Australians have given up on ever owning a home.

"Between high prices, high rates and a tough rental market, the goalposts keep moving.

"Remember, buying a home is a marathon, not a sprint. Building a savings habit now, keeping your debts low and knowing exactly what you can borrow will put you in a strong position when the time is right," Whitten said.

A silver lining for savers

While borrowers take the hit, savers stand to benefit, but only if their bank passes the increase on.

Whitten said savers shouldn't assume their rate will rise automatically.

"Banks are usually quicker to pass on a hike to borrowers than to savers. Check your savings rate over the next few weeks, and if it hasn't moved, move your money.

"There are accounts paying well over 5% right now. If you're earning less than that, you're leaving money on the table," Whitten said.

Australians are sleepwalking past billions in interest a year

Australians could be losing up to $6.3 billion in interest a year by not taking advantage of the best savings accounts on the market, according to Finder analysis.

Finder's research shows a whopping 35% of Australians – equivalent to 7.6 million people – say they have no idea what their savings account currently pays.

Finder's data also found these unaware savers had an average cash savings balance of $27,432.

For those clueless about their savings, that works out to $209 billion that could be on a below average rate.

If that savings earned 5%, rather than the 2% (or less) that many big banks with intro rates drop to, that would be $850 a year in additional interest.

Whitten said interest rates can vary dramatically between savings accounts, so not knowing what you're earning could be costing you hundreds of dollars each year.

"Now is the time to see if you have an account with a strong ongoing rate. Some savers may have signed up for attractive intro rates that have since reverted to a much lower rate.

"You could be losing hundreds of dollars a year just because your money is sitting in a dud account."

*Experts are not required to answer every question in the survey.

Here's what our experts who predicted today's increase had to say about the cash rate:

Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo, University of Melbourne (Increase): "Inflation is still stubbornly above the target and recent remarks by RBA officials have taken on a somewhat hawkish tone, which may indicate that they are increasingly willing to see unemployment rise a little to ease inflationary pressure. I think the RBA will most likely raise the cash rate at this meeting."

Tomasz Wozniak, University of Melbourne (Increase): "It's a likely RAISE! My forecasting system indicates an 82 percent probability of such an outcome. All the bond yield curve models say so, but not those that rely on international rates or cash rate dynamics alone. A rate hike seems in line with the RBA's recent communication, the cash rate staying above the target and inflationary pressures. My forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/"

Scott Kuru, Freedom Property Investors (Increase): "It's pretty clear from everything that Michele Bullock and other RBA staff have said in recent days that inflation is tracking higher than they expected...possibly considerably higher. It would be a Hail Mary event if they didn't pull the trigger for a rate rise on Tuesday."

Shane Oliver, AMP (Increase): "While the RBA is meeting its full employment objective this is not the case for its inflation objective with underlying inflation running well above target and looking like it's going to take longer to get back to target than the RBA was forecasting in August. While cooling growth and the housing downturn should start to take pressure off inflation it's early days and after more than five years of having inflation above target the RBA risks further losing its credibility if it decides to extend its wait and see approach."

Dr Andrew Wilson, My Housing Market (Increase): "Clear signal in last month's commentary that rates would likely rise due to the clear prospect of elevated inflation - particularly in regard to fuel"

Trent Wiltshire, RLB (Increase): "The upside risks to the inflation outlook have partly eventuated, and the RBA has signalled in recent comments they will raise rates to lower inflation and inflation expectations."

Nicholas Frappell, ABC Refinery Pty Ltd (Increase): "An increased focus on reining in inflation, which has been above target for over 4 years."

Sophia Angala, ANZ Research (Increase): "Underlying inflation has proved more persistent than expected, while the re-escalation in the Middle East conflict and higher oil prices have increased the risk of second-round inflation effects. As a result, we expect the RBA to raise the cash rate by 25bp in both September and November 2026."

Nalini Prasad, UNSW Sydney (Increase): "Inflation remains a concern. It's remained high. The RBA will want to keep a hold of inflation expectations in the face of higher oil prices and concerns about government debt levels."

James Morley, University of Sydney (Increase): "Inflation and the RBA's inflation forecasts are above the range the RBA would be comfortable with given the current level of interest rates. Thus, they are very likely to raise the cash rate to show a response to inflation. Economically, the effects of the oil price shock on the economy look to be more persistent than the best case scenario from when it first hit. Labour market conditions are weakening. But the RBA will see the economy as being close enough to a (weak) level of potential such that real economy won't be playing much role in pulling inflation down. Also, there is a general sense that the neutral rate of interest is higher than it was a few years ago due to global conditions, including in terms of fiscal profligacy. Taken together, these considerations imply the RBA will raise rates at the next meeting and likely the one after unless some new data comes in to ease their concerns about inflation."

Garry Barrett, University of Sydney (Increase): "Underlying inflation persistently outside target."

Mark O'Flynn, Oxlade Financial (Increase): "Higher inflation than target."

Geoffrey Kingston, Macquarie University Business School (Increase): "The latest reports on the labour market and prices show that efforts to dated by the Bank. to bring inflation back within the target band, have fallen short. Bank officials have signalled in recent days that they are concerned that inflation expectations could become unanchored."

Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics (Increase): "They seem to be telegraphing as much"

Mala Raghavan, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, University of Tasmania (Increase): "With inflation remaining above target, tight labour market conditions easing only gradually, and geopolitical tensions continuing to generate supply-side cost pressures, the RBA is likely to maintain a tough stance on interest rates this time and increase the cash rate despite concerns about economic sluggishness in some sectors. The US Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hike has further strengthened the case for tighter monetary policy. If the RBA fails to take action, it could lead to a weaker dollar, higher import prices, and increased domestic inflationary pressures. This situation reinforces the need for the RBA to focus on containing inflation."

Sam White, Loan Market (Increase): "To help get inflation under control. The RBA has stated inflation is its key priority, and with this remaining sticky and above target, it is likely the Board will move to increase the cash rate."

Jeffrey Sheen, Macquarie University (Increase): "The RBA's managers have given very strong indications that they will recommend raising the cash rate. Business leaders in the BOSS survey expect it. Financial markets have priced in a high probability of it occurring. Interest rates are rising globally."

Peter Boehm, Pathfinder Consulting (Increase): "The RBA is trying to balance maintaining employment levels and reducing inflation. As a result, it has held back increasing rates sooner to avoid the risk of pushing unemployment up. Unfortunately, there is no effective single strategy which addresses both objectives. Consequently, something has to give and so there is no alternative but to increase rates at the expense of pushing up the unemployment rate and possibly pushing the economy into recession. With inflation consistently above the target range the RBA must increase rates in September, with possibly two further rate increases to follow."

Mathew Tiller, LJ Hooker Group (Increase): "I expect the RBA to increase the cash rate. Inflation is proving to be stubborn and there are still some upside risks on the horizon given what's happening in the Middle East and the ongoing tightness in the labour market. The housing market is also continuing to soften. Prices are declining as confidence softens, household budgets come under more pressure and some investors sit on the sidelines because of the tax changes. Another rate rise will only add to that pressure. Buyers will be more cautious, while some vendors may simply decide to hold off selling."

Adj Prof Noel Whittaker, QUT (Increase): "The bond markets are telling us that interest rates are on the rise around the world, and Australia will be no exception. Inflation is still not under control, the war in Iran shows no sign of ending soon, and the Reserve Bank has given strong hints that it will not hesitate to raise rates if necessary. So I expect rates to rise. But I also think it will be a fairly pointless exercise. Higher rates will hit people with mortgages hard, while doing little to address the global forces now driving inflation."

Tim Nelson, Griffith University (Increase): "Inflation has crept up again and its composition implies its more than just higher oil and commodity prices."

Cameron Kusher, Kusher Consulting (Increase): "Inflation is too high, economic growth was stronger than forecast and oil prices have risen quickly and are an input to many other goods in the CPI bucket."

Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons (Increase): "The RBA's references to persistent inflation suggest another rise, and perhaps rises, are coming. Missing, though, is recognition that consumers are not paying higher prices for items like fuel, food and rent out of choice. They have no choice. Higher prices are the result of macro factors and these won't be impacted by interest rate hikes."

Craig Emerson, Emerson Economics (Increase): "The RBA has almost explicitly said it will increase the cash rate."

Brodie Haupt, WLTH (Increase): "Higher global oil prices flowing through to increased inflation might force the RBA board to increase the cash rate sooner than expected."

Dale Gillham, Wealth Within Group (Increase): "The RBA has kept rates at it's current level since the increase in May and inflation is not coming down. Oil is now back around $100 where it was in May, and energy costs are once again rising on the back of it. I expect a 25 basis point rise at the next RBA meeting."

David Robertson, Bendigo Bank (Increase): "The recent rebound in oil prices together with more evidence of elevated core inflation prior to this impact leaves the RBA with little choice but to increase official rates this month. Our forecasts had predicted this hike in November, but the timeline is now more compressed."

Stella Huangfu, University of Sydney (Increase): "Inflation remains too high, with underlying inflation proving persistent and still well above the RBA's target range. Domestic capacity pressures remain, while higher energy costs continue to pose upside risks to inflation. Given these pressures, I expect the RBA to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points in September."

Kyle Rodda, Capital.com (Increase): "Inflation is elevated and the RBA has indicated that it is weighting policy towards price stability over the labour market."

Graham Cooke, Aussie Insights (Increase): "Australian inflation has not cooled as quickly as anticipated. With the worsening crisis in the Middle East putting upward pressure on oil prices, the RBA will likely act to counter these inflationary pressures, just as the US Federal Reserve did this month - against the wishes of Donald Trump."

Jakob Madsen, University of Western Australia (Increase): "RBA Governor Michele Bullock correctly highlighted that upside risks to inflation are materializing. Higher global energy and commodity prices, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions, have added sustained pressure to domestic consumer prices."

Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists Pty Ltd (Increase): "Interest rates are likely to rise at the RBA's next meeting because underlying inflation remains stubbornly above target, while the labour market is still relatively tight. With global cost pressures increasing and the RBA warning that inflation risks are materialising, the Board may decide that another rate rise is necessary to prevent inflation becoming entrenched."

Stephen Koukoulas, Market Economics (Increase): "Global inflation pressures are evident in Australia."

Matt Turner, GSC Finance (Increase): "Inflation high with ongoing conflict and government spending remaining still elevated. No choice left to reign it all in but raise rates."

Saul Eslake, Corinna Economic Advisory Pty Ltd (Increase): "'Underlying' inflation remains well above the RBA's target, and recent comments by senior RBA officials suggest their willingness to tolerate this is fading. Recent developments in the Middle East represent further upward risks to the inflation outlook which the RBA will find it difficult to ignore."

Stephen Miller, GSFM (Increase): "Inflation is too high and too 'sticky'."

Anthony Waldron, Mortgage Choice (Increase): "ABS data shows that trimmed mean inflation, the RBA's preferred measure, remains high. Earlier this month, at the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics Governor Bullock made clear that bringing inflation down is essential. This keeps a fourth cash rate hike firmly on the table this year either at this month's meeting, or in November."

Here's what our experts who predicted a hold had to say about the cash rate:

Evgenia Dechter, UNSW (Hold): "It is a difficult call. Economic growth is weak and unemployment is rising, so the RBA has to weigh the risk of persistent inflation against the risk of slowing the economy too much."

Mark Crosby, Monash University (Hold): "Despite indicators of rising inflation there is equally evidence of a weakening economy that would warrant a wait and see approach for another few months."

Tim Reardon, HIA (Hold): "Home prices are falling, that is a symptom of the previous rate increases that will, with time, flow through to reduced inflationary pressures."

Cameron Murray, Fresh Economic Thinking (Hold): "Momentum in the economy isn't picking up, and they expect continued softening in line with global trends."