Finder’s 2021 Bitcoin Predictions Report
Bitcoin is set to crack $100,000 this year, according to Finder's panel of 35 fintech specialists.
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Bitcoin continues to beat its own highs time and time again – but just how high will the currency go, and how long will this bull run last? We asked 35 panellists for their expert opinions.
Meet our panel
|Ben Ritchie, Managing Director, Digital Capital Management||Samantha Yap, Founder and CEO, YAP Global||Tony Guoga, CEO, Cypherpunk Holdings Inc.||Vishal Shah, CEO, Alpha5|
|Craig Cobb, Founder, www.tradercobb.com||Martin Fröhler, CEO, Morpher||Veronica Mihai, Investor||Sagi Bakshi, CEO, Coinmama|
|Simon Trimborn, Assistant Professor, City University of Hong Kong||Joseph Raczynski, Technologist and Futurist, Thomson Reuters||Simon Peters, Market Analyst and Senior Account Manager, eToro||Dr Paul J. Ennis, Lecturer and Assistant Professor, University College Dublin|
|Igor Runets, CEO, BitRiver||Sarah Bergstrand, COO, BitBull Capital||Bilal Hammoud, CEO, NDAX||Sathvik Vishwanath, CEO, Unocoin|
|Lennard Neo, Stack Funds, Head of Research||Joel Kruger, Cryptocurrency Strategist, LMAX Group||Mohit Singh Sorout, Co-Founder, Bitazu Capital||Desmond Marshall, Managing Director, Rouge International|
|David Klinger, Co-founder, SpringCapital||Iwa Salami, Senior Lecturer, University of East London||Elvira Sojli, Associate Professor, UNSW||Sorcha Mulligan, Founder, The SMEChain|
|Sukhi Jutla, COO, MarketOrders||David Waslen, CEO, Wilder World||Vladislav Ginzburg, CEO, Blockparty||Julian Hosp, CEO and Director, Cake Pte Ltd|
|Jeremy Cheah, Associate Professor, Nottingham Trent University||John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, University of Canberra||Lee Smales, Associate Professor, University of Western Australia||Josh Fraser, Co-Founder, Origin Protocol|
|Nicolas Van Hoorde, CEO, Delta.app||Jason Lau, COO, OKCoin||Lex Sokolin, Head Economist, ConsenSys|
Bitcoin price forecasts
Bitcoin is set to end the year at $94,967, according to Finder's panel. That's up 82.80% when compared to the panel's end-of-2021 prediction of $51,951 in December 2020.
Morpher CEO Martin Fröhler and Cake Pte Ltd CEO and director Julian Hosp, who both gave two of the highest end-of-year predictions at $250,000 and $200,000 respectively, attribute their bullishness to BTC's parity to gold.
According to Fröhler, "Bitcoin is the ultimate long term store of value and will gradually replace gold and bonds in that role."
Origin Protocol co-founder Josh Fraser also gave an above-average end-of-year prediction of $150,000 and says it all boils down to supply and demand, where "demand will only continue to increase while supply diminishes."
Rouge International managing director Desmond Marshall, who gave an EOY prediction of $65,000, furthers this, saying:
"The scarcity will push BTC up, up to a point where people hoard like gold and limit the actual normal trading as people may refuse to sell."
Assistant professor at the City University of Hong Kong Simon Trimborn thinks that BTC will hit $80,000 this year, due to institutional investment.
"Developments like the listing of Coinbase and the investments of companies into Bitcoin have the potential to push prices higher," he said.
By 2025, BTC's price is predicted to jump to $360,179. That's an 83% increase compared to the panel's December end-of-2025 prediction of $197,553.
One panellist, BitBull Capital COO Sarah Bergstrand, thinks that by then, BTC will be priced at a whopping $1 million. Bergstrand acknowledges that 2025 may be too far ahead to arrive at a prediction, but says that with BTC growing in popularity, this forecast isn't so unlikely.
She's not the only panellist to give this forecast. LMAX Group cryptocurrency strategist Joel Kruger and Coinmama CEO Sagi Bakshi also think that BTC could end 2025 with a valuation of $1 million.
"The only question that needs asking in terms of longer term valuation is whether you think Bitcoin will be around in 2025. If the answer to this question is 'yes', the economics support a much higher valuation. It's as simple as that," Kruger said.
YAP Global founder and CEO Samantha Yap predicts that BTC will cap off 2025 at $500,000, but says that a $1 million valuation isn't out of the question.
"Bitcoin maximalists claim that BTC will reach $1 million in price. It used to be outrageous to claim that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 a year ago. But with what we've seen this year, it's not impossible to think that it could reach $1 million," she said.
On the other hand, some panellists aren't as optimistic about the future of Bitcoin.
MarketOrders CEO Sukhi Jutla, SpringCapital co-founder David Klinger and University of Western Australia associate professor Lee Smales all predict that Bitcoin will cap off 2025 at less than $50,000.
"I believe Bitcoin will be replaced by both fiat crypto and possibly a new coin which has higher KYC/AML standards, higher functionality and less energy requirements to mine," said Klinger.
How high will BTC go this year?
While Finder's panel sees BTC ending the year at $95,000, that doesn't mean that it won't break the $100,000 mark before then, with over half (51.61%) the panel predicting that Bitcoin will summit that milestone at some point this year. According to the panel average, the price of BTC could soar up to $107,484 at some point during 2021.
Digital Capital Management managing director Ben Ritchie, Julian Hosp and Martin Fröhler, who all gave above-average predictions for how far BTC will go this year ($120,000, $200,000 and $300,000 respectively), chalk it up to the stock-to-flow ratio.
"Stock-to-flow ratio remains one of the most accurate macro indicators for Bitcoin. Coupled with overlaying the halving event cycle, it would suggest we peak between US$120,000 and US$140,000 before forming a new base around US$100,000," said Ritchie.
Some panellists, including investor Veronica Mihai, lecturer and assistant professor at University College Dublin Dr Paul Ennis and The SMEChain founder Sorcha Mulligan, say that BTC is continually attracting the interest of more institutional investors.
Mulligan puts it this way:
It's impossible to speculate accurately but indicators point towards further institutional investment as well as private corporations and Group Treasury Depts eying up the asset class. Bitcoin has proven its use case and its scalability in the past 12 months alone! In addition, a wider audience of retail private individual investors are gradually coming to the crypto asset table, which finally gives Bitcoin a whole of market investment audience for the first year ever.
However, she notes that one little mistake could be detrimental:
"One blip in the system, one big bad news story will send the masses running and price volatility will ensue."
Nottingham Trent University associate professor Jeremy Cheah, who thinks Bitcoin will hit $100,000 this year, agrees that Bitcoin is becoming more popular among businesses and institutions.
"More businesses and institutions (for example, PayPal, Tesla, etc) are getting involved. Also, there is now greater awareness brought about by CBDC digital yuan and talk of other central banks doing the same. There is also the potential for Facebook to launch their own stablecoin," he said.
And it's not just a matter of spreading the word about Bitcoin. OKCoin COO Jason Lau, who predicts that Bitcoin will go as high as $150,000 this year, says that people are gaining stronger confidence in the coin, which in turn increases adoption:
"Confidence in Bitcoin has never been higher, with wall street and main street aligning to understand and accept Bitcoin as an ideal store of value. The development in market and financial infrastructure, coupled with macro themes of inflation and dollar devaluation, have resulted in high profile institutions and businesses reinforcing this viewpoint and driving access and adoption."
On the flipside, panellists like University of Canberra senior lecturer John Hawkins and UNSW associate professor Elvira Sojli are slightly less optimistic about how high Bitcoin will go, predicting that BTC will peak at around $61,000-$65,000.
Hawkins expects BTC price to "fluctuate around the current level for a while before at some stage dropping heavily."
Buy, sell or hold Bitcoin
With all that said, nearly half (48.48%) of the panellists say that now is the time to buy BTC, while 39.39% say that people should hold onto their currency, and a small minority (12.12%) say it's best to sell.
Thomson Reuters technologist and futurist Joseph Raczynski is part of those who said that now's the time to buy. According to Raczynski, by the time we reach 2025, Bitcoin will be the world's primary currency or store of value.
eToro market analyst and senior account manager Simon Peters says that you should hold onto your Bitcoin for now:
At some point, following the ultimate top of this bull market, we will see a retracement. How deep that will be remains to be seen. 2024 will see another halving in the block reward, which, historically, has been the start of the next bull market. So in 2025 we could be poised to see the next Bitcoin bull market.
When will this Bitcoin bull run end?
Over a third (36.36%) of panellists predict that this bull run will run into the last quarter of 2021, while nearly a third (30.30%) say it'll last only until the third quarter of this year.
Trading Cobb founder Craig Cobb, and Veronica Mihai predict that the run will last until the final quarter of this year.
"I expect Bitcoin to perform as seen in previous cycles, with regular price increments and corrections," Mihai said. "It will continue to be an asset class for institutional investors and HNWIs as a hedge against inflation and local/global economic downturns. A balance sheet of public companies holding Bitcoin will become a common trend."
Meanwhile, Elvira Sojli doesn't think the run will last much longer, saying that it'll last only up to the third quarter of this year. According to Sojli, "the run up was spurred by interesting associated events, which by now have run out of steam."
Bergstrand had a similar prediction and said it may be time for BTC to take a breather before its next milestone:
"While BTC remains bullish, any stark price appreciation in a short period of time cannot be sustainable nor healthy. BTC can go high, but it needs time and stops along the way to reach a major milestone."
Although Bitazu Capital co-founder Mohit Singh Sorout gave no exact prediction on when the bull run will end, he believes that if BTC will break out from the $61,000 level any time soon, that would be the final rally for this cycle.
"A blow-off top would be imminent in that case. However if BTC spends more time (say more than a month) in the current range below $60,000, then we can expect a more sustained health rally later on, which may not put in a cycle top so soon," he said.
What could cause a price drop?
No one can say for certain if BTC will see a significant price drop following this bull run, but there are some possible scenarios that might trigger this happening. Cyclical bubble and burst is the most likely scenario, according to the vast majority (68%) of panellists, followed by increased regulation (53%) and institutional investors divesting en masse (44%).
The possibility of PayPal or another big player retracting from the market (32%) or a mass hack event (26%) were also among the top scenarios selected.
Delta CEO Nicolas Van Hoorde says that macroeconomic events are what drive BTC's price:
"Looking at what happened in March 2020, you can definitely see a correlation to macroeconomic events impacting the share market and the crypto market as a result. This will stay the case for the foreseeable future."
Meanwhile, NDAX CEO Bilal Hammoud and Joseph Raczynski say that increased regulation could be the main trigger.
"The biggest concern is regulation," said Raczynski. "It would scare the market, for a short term, but ultimately it's going to be a real challenge to globally regulate Bitcoin."
BTC ownership split and valuation
Despite Bitcoin continuing in a sustained bull run at record-breaking prices, the majority of panellists (51.52%) say that BTC is still undervalued. Around a quarter of panellists (24%) say that it's overvalued, and roughly the same percentage think it's fairly priced as is.
Institutional investors currently own the smallest chunk of the market (25.07%), followed by retail investors (28.23%) and whales (46.70%), according to the panel average.
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