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Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction 2023
A panel of industry specialists give us their predictions on the price of Bitcoin to 2030.
Finder analyses expert price predictions each quarter. We conducted our most recent survey in October 2023 in which our panel of 31 crypto industry specialists shared their thoughts on how Bitcoin would perform through 2030.
All prices mentioned in this report are denominated in US dollars.
On average, our panel thinks Bitcoin (BTC) will be worth US$30,463 by 2023 before rising to US$87,125 by 2025 and then US$220,708 by 2030.
Bitcoin price predictions for 2023, 2025 and 2030
Bitcoin's price is expected to rise to US$30,463 by year-end 2023, according to the average prediction from Finder's panellists.
This price prediction was down significantly from US$38,488, the average prediction for Bitcoin's price by the end of 2023 from our July 2023 survey.
The panellists also predict BTC will hit US$87,125 by 2025 and US$220,708 by 2030. Both of these predictions are notably lower than our panellists' average predictions in our July 2023 survey, which were US$100,293 by 2025 and US$289,159 by 2030.
"My prediction for 2025 sees Bitcoin's price 10x at least from this current price," Matiu Rudolph, COO of Layer One X, says. "My 31 Dec 2023 Bitcoin price prediction is similar (but slightly lower) to today's price as liquidity and activity in the market is very low. My 31 Dec 2025 prediction is high because history has shown within its 4-year cycle that Bitcoin normally reaches its peak price approx 18 months after its halving."
Manraj Chandok, trader at Wirex, also believes we won't see much change in Bitcoin's price until the halving, which is when the block subsidy reward – the amount of Bitcoin awarded to miners – is cut in half. This is expected to occur in April 2024.
"Heading into the close of 2023, BTC is expected to maintain its current range," Chandok says. "In 2024, the Bitcoin halving event is on the horizon, which is anticipated to reignite interest in the cryptocurrency space, especially BTC."
Pav Hundal, lead market analyst at Swyftx, sees eye to eye with Rudolph and Chandok regarding the halving and he expands on why the halving is significant:
"Historically, Bitcoin halvings have followed a predictable 3-stage pattern," Hundal says. "We've always seen a surge in price momentum in the months up to a halving followed by a classic 'sell the news' event once it actually takes place. The third and final stage is a price advancement into the next bull run. In our industry, we lean on the Bitcoin halving as a beacon to navigate what we can anticipate. While we have no idea what the market conditions from a geopolitical or economic perspective will be in 2024, we know that Bitcoin will become more scarce."
However, not all of our panellists were as bullish on the halving.
"The effects of Bitcoin's halvings on the price have gotten weaker over time for 2 reasons," Ruadhan O, creator of Seasonal Tokens, says. "One is that the supply of new Bitcoins to the market is getting smaller over time in comparison to the existing supply of Bitcoins, causing the influence of mining on the price to weaken. The other reason is that, when the market cap [of Bitcoin] reaches trillions of dollars, it's a significant fraction of the size of the world economy, limiting the room for further growth."
And some of our panellists were downright bearish on Bitcoin.
"It has shown itself to be too volatile to be a store of value," John Hawkins, senior lecturer at the University of Canberra, says. "Its price fell heavily in 2022 showing it was no inflation hedge."
How high and low will BTC go in 2023?
The average peak price our panellists predict Bitcoin will hit by year-end 2023 is US$32,442, with some predicting it will climb as high as US$45,000.
The average lowest price our panellists predict Bitcoin will hit by year-end 2023 is US$22,622, with some predicting it will fall as low as US$15,000.
"There are a few indicators we can use to gauge the next few months," Pedro Febrero, VP of Web3 at RealFevr, says. "Bitcoin is reaching the halving [and] BRC20s and Ordinals will most likely [cause] BTC fees [to] increase."
Damian Chmiel, senior analyst and editor at Finance Magnates, predicts BTC will only go as high as $30,000 before the year ends.
"By the end of the current year, the price of Bitcoin is likely to consolidate," Chmiel says. "In my opinion, it won't rise above US$30,000. The cryptocurrency is currently hindered by the monetary policies of major central banks and a strong US dollar."
Our more bearish panellists are looking at Bitcoin's price through the lens of technical analysis.
"If you look at the weekly timeframe there is a head and shoulders pattern forming," Elliot Dixon, COO at Renegade, says. "The duplication of that takes you to around the US$18,000 mark. If you also look at the daily timeframe you can see that we have just taken out the last high around US$28,174. Now that liquidity has been taken, I believe the next direction of the market will be down towards the next draw on liquidity."
Alexander Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, is also bearish, as he sees Bitcoin peaking at just US$28,000 before year-end.
"It went below the 200-day moving average, making it a resistance," Kuptsikevich says.
Is now the time to buy, sell or hold Bitcoin (BTC)?
The majority of our panellists believe it's a good time to buy BTC.
To be exact, 66% of them think Bitcoin is a buy at its current price, while 24% believe it's a good time to hold the asset and 10% think it's time to sell.
Josh Fraser, co-founder of Origin Protocol, is one of our panellists who sees Bitcoin as a buy right now.
"Many investors are predicting the markets will flip bullish at some point in 2024," Fraser says. "Quantitative easing, the Bitcoin halving, and [spot] Bitcoin ETF approval are all on the radar for Q1/Q2 2024. As we approach the end of 2023, these macro factors will be just around the corner."
Ben Ritchie, managing director at Digital Capital Management Pty Ltd, also feels that Bitcoin is a buy while the US dollar is currently strong.
"A robust US dollar, as indicated by the Dollar Strength Index (DXY), presents a significant challenge for Bitcoin," Ritchie says. "This is because when the dollar is strong, investors tend to become more cautious and hesitant to take risks, which can affect Bitcoin's performance in the short term."
Paul Levy, senior lecturer at the University of Brighton, feels it's time to follow in the footsteps of the hardcore HODLers out there – to hold the asset and remain patient.
"Bitcoin demonstrates continued resilience, a propensity to bounce back consistently," Levy says. "[It']s still underpinned by the patience of longer term investors."
Tristan Thoma, director of government and payments at AlphaPoint, also believes Bitcoin is currently worth holding, especially since greater adoption may be just around the corner.
"More countries will legalise use of BTC for payments and tender in coming years," Thoma says. "As legal/regulatory frameworks mature and include BTC, it will increase global penetration and use, thereby increasing the value."
John Hawkins doesn't agree with Thoma and believes it's time to sell your Bitcoin.
"15 years on, Bitcoin has clearly failed in its original mission to become a widely used payments instrument," Hawkins says.
Is Bitcoin currently overpriced, underpriced or fairly priced?
Almost half of our panellists feel that Bitcoin is currently selling at a discount.
That is, 47% feel that Bitcoin is currently underpriced.
43% feel that Bitcoin is currently priced fairly and 10% say it's overpriced.
"BTC is currently underpriced due to pressure and uncertainty in TradFi," Ruslan Lienkha, chief of markets at YouHodler, says. "The macroeconomic background doesn't allow crypto to realize its full growth potential. So, [my] forecast is 'restrained price increase' until the end of the year."
Jeremy Britton, CFO at Boston Trading.co, also believes that Bitcoin is underpriced.
"Current long-term Bitcoin holdings are at record highs," Britton says. "There is very little BTC available on exchanges or hot wallets. When major institutions such as Blackrock, ARK, Wisdom Tree and Fidelity want BTC [for their potential ETFs], they will have to bid prices very high to convince long-term HODLers to crack open their cold wallets."
Ryan Grace, head of tastycrypto, thinks the current rate for Bitcoin is fair.
"I think BTC is fairly priced given the macro headwinds," Grace says. "In the face of higher rates and US dollar strength, BTC has been one of the best performing assets year-to-date. Should we see a more stimulative monetary policy environment in the future, BTC should respond positively."
Nick Ranga, senior cryptocurrency and forex analyst at ForexTraders.com, also thinks Bitcoin is priced fairly.
"Historically, Bitcoin has been priced at around 50% of the previous all-time high going into halving events," Ranga says. "We look to be on track to be in that same ballpark going into 2024."
If G7 countries go into a recession, what impact might this have on the price of Bitcoin?
2 in 5 panellists – 40% – feel that if G7 countries go into a recession, Bitcoin's price would only experience a moderately negative impact.
27% believe that a recession would have no impact on Bitcoin's price, as the risk of recession is already priced in, while 20% believe that a recession would have a moderately positive impact on the price of Bitcoin.
"We live in highly unpredictable geopolitical and economic conditions where a recession is still a material risk," Hundal says, "forecasting in the current macroeconomic landscape is a challenge and anyone who pretends otherwise is likely hopelessly overconfident."
While Rudolph didn't comment on whether or not he thinks a recession is imminent, he believes that one would have a moderately negative impact on Bitcoin's price.
"I don't see major directional movement coming by the end of the year unless we see a recession prior to Dec 2023," Rudolph says.
Desmond Marshall, MD at Rouge International & Rouge Ventures, believes that if we do move into a recession, it might not be such a bad thing for Bitcoin – that is, as long as regulatory uncertainty around Bitcoin doesn't get in the way.
"Rumours of a coming recession may boost crypto a bit," Marshall says. "But the vagueness around regulat[ion] may cause a further dip in the price. BTC is still the strongest crypto of all, so I don't think it will dip as hard as other tokens."
Will a spot BTC ETF be approved?
4 out of 5 of our panellists believe the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot Bitcoin ETF – an ETF in which Bitcoin itself is held as the underlying asset – either this year or next.
While only 20% believe a spot Bitcoin ETF will be approved within the year, 60% say it's likely to happen in 2024. An additional 10% think the ETF will be approved by 2025 or later.
When asked if the SEC should approve a spot Bitcoin ETF, 87% said "Yes", while 7% were unsure and 7% said no.
"A BTC spot ETF is inevitable," Martin Froehler, CEO of Morpher, says. He also believes that the ETF along with "fading macro headwinds" will be a boon for the price of Bitcoin.
Other panellists feel that a spot Bitcoin ETF coming to market – whether this year or next – will boost Bitcoin's price.
"The approval of a spot BTC ETF could pave the way for substantial structural buying from major asset allocators such as pension funds," Chandok says. "This would likely exert upward pressure on BTC's price."
How much would Bitcoin's price increase in the wake of a spot Bitcoin ETF coming to market? Joseph Raczynski, futurist at Joe Technologist, Consulting & Media, thinks the jump would be considerable and that we'll have to wait just a bit longer for it.
"If it (a spot Bitcoin ETF) were to be approved, [Bitcoin] could double in price," Raczynski says. "That (the approval) will most likely happen in 2024."
Meet the panel
Finder surveyed 31 fintech specialists in October 2023. Panellists are able to answer as many or as few questions as they like, meaning the number of responses received varies by question. 30 panellists gave their price prediction for BTC by year-end 2023, 2025 and 2030. Panellists may own some cryptocurrencies, including BTC. All prices are listed in USD per BTC.
Changes to methodology: In 2021, this research was conducted using the simple mean of all answers supplied to Finder. From 2022, we switched to using the truncated mean, with the top and bottom 10% of responses removed in order to attain a more consistent result. Any 2021 results quoted in this analysis have also been re-calculated using the truncated mean.
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