Is the price of TRON set to rise, fall or hold steady?
TRON is a much-talked-about project that aims to use blockchain technology to construct a global free content entertainment system. Launched in 2017, its native token, Tronix (TRX), has experienced substantial fluctuations, including a growth of 3,650% in the space of just one month.
However, TRON has been the subject of much debate in the crypto community. While it has a strong supporter base, recent criticisms and concerns of the project have raised questions about whether TRX owners could be headed for a fall.
What does the future hold for the price of TRX? Let’s take a closer look.
|Launch date||September 2017|
TRON price prediction
Cryptocurrencies are known for their volatility, with prices capable of substantial fluctuations in a short space of time. They're also quite complicated, with several variables that could potentially drive prices up or down. Before buying any TRON, make sure you carefully assess any factors that could have an impact on the value of the currency, such as those outlined in the table below.
What could drive TRON’s growth?
- Partnerships. TRON has secured partnerships with a number of big names in the content entertainment industry, including UPLive, Bitmain, Game.com and bike sharing system, oBike. These could help drive the popularity and growth of the platform, plus potentially lead to future arrangements with other corporate partners. Partnership announcements have also previously affected the price of TRX.
- Justin Sun. TRON founder Justin Sun has been listed in the Forbes “30 Under 30” and previously founded China's Snapchat competitor Peiwo Sun. Sun also has a large public profile and is reported to enjoy close ties with Jack Ma, the founder of Chinese e-commerce behemoth Alibaba.
- Speculation. From 9 December 2017 to 9 January 2018, the price of TRX rose a whopping 3,650%. There were several factors behind the spike, but such rapid growth could potentially attract speculators and those affected by FOMO looking to take advantage of any future price hikes.
- Mainnet launch. TRON’s Exodus mainnet launch is expected in 2018, with the Test Net scheduled for the end of March and the full launch for May 31. Exodus aims to offer negligible fees and increased scalability and will see TRON switch from the Ethereum network to its own platform.
- Potential. TRON’s aim is to create a platform where users can freely publish, store and own data. The plan is to cut out middlemen such as the Apple Store and Google Play, giving ownership back to content creators.
What could hold TRON back?
- No working product. At the time of writing (16/03/2018), TRON has no working product. Until the mainnet is released, there is bound to be a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the platform’s viability.
- Justin Sun. Some critics have pointed to TRON’s over-reliance on Sun as a potential drawback. If Sun’s credibility is brought into question, for example by the plagiarism scandal mentioned below, or he decides to move on to other projects, this could have a big impact on the public perception of TRON.
- Questionable marketing. TRON has been criticised in the past for making misleading announcements about corporate partnerships. For example, in January 2018 it was accused of using “creative marketing” to over-hype its partnership with Chinese firm Baofeng.
- Plagiarism accusations. In January 2018, TRON was hit by explosive allegations that sections of its whitepaper were plagiarised from FileCoin and IPFS. Though Justin Sun responded with a tweet claiming the lack of referencing (and other whitepaper issues) were due to a translation error, the news had a big impact on the overall public perception of the project.
- Lack of adoption. Another key factor determining the value of TRX will be whether the platform can achieve widespread adoption. It will need to compete with established content channels like Facebook, Instagram and Google Play, as well as blockchain platforms like LBRY and Po.et.
- TRX distribution. Some commentators have questioned whether a large portion of TRX tokens are controlled by a small number of users, allowing market manipulation of the TRX price.
Where to buy TRX
What’s coming up in TRON’s roadmap
Upcoming developments and upgrades are also key considerations when attempting to forecast future TRX price fluctuations. Of course, the biggest development in TRON’s roadmap in coming times is the launch of its mainnet, which has been brought forward to 31 May 2018.
Known as Exodus, this will see TRON launch its free platform for data publication, storage and dissemination. Considering the criticism that’s been levelled at TRON for its lack of a working product, the mainnet launch will be watched with considerable interest by TRX holders.
It’s also important to point out that Exodus is just the first of six phases in TRON’s development. Odyssey, Great Voyage, Apollo, Star Trek and Eternity are the phases still to come, with the last of these scheduled for completion around 2027. We won’t go into detail about what these phases involve, but it’s worth researching if you want a better idea of TRON’s long-term plans.
The value of TRX in the months and years ahead will in part be influenced by how TRON compares to other competitors in the online entertainment content marketplace. Key competitors to keep an eye on include:
- Established content platforms. Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Apple iTunes and Google Play are just some of the big names that currently control the lion’s share of the market. None of these platforms will relinquish their audiences without a big fight, so the onus will be on TRON to position itself as a viable alternative.
- LBRY. With an aim to overcome censorship and centralised control, LBRY is a community-run digital media library and marketplace where creators can upload their content and set their own terms and fees about how their content is shared.
- Po.et. Another blockchain platform where publishers and creators can manage their digital media assets, Po.et aims to provide incontrovertible proof of ownership and simplify the attribution process.
- SingularDTV. SingularDTV is a blockchain platform designed to provide artists and creators with a system where they can build, monetise, manage and distribute their projects.
Beyond 2018: What does the future hold for TRON?
What 2018 and the years that follow have in store for TRON will be greatly influenced by what happens in the next few months. The launch of the TRON mainnet on 31 May 2018 is a crucial milestone for the project. If the launch is successful and the platform runs as promised, it’ll go a long way to silencing some of TRON’s critics. Of course, the headlines will be markedly different if the mainnet is a flop.
The role of Justin Sun will also be crucial. Depending on who you ask, Sun is either as important and influential as Elon Musk is to Tesla or someone who plagiarises whitepapers and engages in some questionable marketing practices. Whatever the case may be, there’s no doubt that Sun has been a real driving force behind TRON’s evolution so far.
Whether or not the project can experience future growth will come down to the battle for widespread adoption. The Internet giants that currently control most online entertainment content aren’t just going to roll over and let a new arrival assume control of the market, so TRON’s ability to position itself as a reliable and popular platform will be vital.
So while the future for TRON is quite uncertain at the moment, we can expect the picture to become much clearer in the next few months. In the meantime, supporters will be hoping Justin Sun and the project as a whole can avoid courting any more controversy.
TRON has shown plenty of promise but it will also face a few key obstacles in the months ahead. The launch of its mainnet later this year will be an important milestone and one that many in the crypto world will be watching with interest.
Should you buy TRX? You’re the only person who can answer that question, so do your own research to decide whether you think TRON is headed for a rise or a fall.
At the time of writing, the author holds IOTA and XLM.