TRON mainnet about to launch. Going live on 31 May 2018

What does the mainnet launch mean for TRX prices? Possibly almost certainly something or other... maybe.

TRON (TRX) is set to launch its much anticipated mainnet tomorrow, 31 May 2018. A mainnet launch is a momentous time for any cryptocurrency and is akin to taking off the training wheels and becoming a fully-fledged self-supporting network in its own right.

Until the mainnet launch, TRON has been running as an ERC20 token, piggybacking off the proven functionality of the Ethereum network. In the case of TRON, a mainnet launch will allow it to start unlocking many functionalities that may have been restricted by Ethereum's architecture or limited network throughput.

The main question for TRON holders is what this will do to prices. There's a natural case for a price increase, price decrease or just general price indifference following the mainnet launch.

What will TRX prices do?

At first glance, it might look like prices and trade volume have already started building in anticipation. But at second glance, it's clear that this is just TRX moving with the rest of the market and bouncing back from a brief but pronounced slump.

At the time of writing, the price patterns for bitcoin and TRON are almost identical.

Twins

These synchronised movements are fairly typical of cryptocurrency markets. But in this case, it might show that the impending mainnet launch isn't having any distinct impact on TRX prices at the moment, and that its prices are simply doing exactly what they would be at any other time.

In fact, by some measures, TRX prices are even looking a bit saggy. Altcoin prices are typically a bit nimbler and more pronounced than bitcoin, on both the ups and downs, and TRON's current 24-hour gains of about 11% against fiat, 5% against bitcoin and 2% against Ethereum, mark it as one of the day's slower movers.

If one thing is clear right now, it's that TRON's mainnet launch isn't exactly rocking the market.

But this might be expected. In a frothier market, buyers might stock up in anticipation of making a quick profit from TRX prices leaping after launch. But in the cautious markets of today, neither the long-term holders nor the careful traders see any reason to buy more at the moment.

Caution might be sensible. Crypto markets have the unfortunate habit of punishing projects that actually release a product, and TRON might well fall into the same trap. It's probably important that the launch be accompanied by more glitz and more promises of big things to come. Fortunately, glitz and glam is bit of a TRON specialty, and it's unlikely that the mainnet launch would come and go without some kind of showy price-inspiring fanfare.

But so far, TRX prices aren't responding to the upcoming mainnet launch and are even suggesting a bit of petrified caution. But that's all probably exactly as expected.

The markets are in "wait and see" mode, which is exactly where they should be. Depending on what the launch reveals, there might be a price scuffle in either direction.

On the whole though, the current state of the wider cryptocurrency markets is playing a much more important role in TRX prices than anything else. The mainnet launch will probably do something, but there's no guarantee it won't be mostly drowned out by movements in the wider market.

Disclosure: At the time of writing, the author holds ETH, IOTA, ICX, VEN, XLM, BTC and NANO.

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