RBA cash rate

Find the current RBA cash rate, read expert forecasts on the bank's next move and learn what it all means for your finances.

Updated . What changed?

Fact checked
hold

0.25%

CASH RATE HOLD

RBA decision made 07 July 2020
  • At its latest meeting on 07 July 2020 the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to hold the cash rate at its historic low of 0.25%.
  • 100% of our experts correctly forecast the RBA's decision.
Next rate meeting: The board of the Reserve Bank meets on 04 August 2020 to decide the future of the cash rate.

Finder surveys over 40 economists and property experts every month to forecast the RBA's next cash rate decision. Experts also provide commentary on the current state of the property market and the Australian economy. We update the page with new forecasts at the end of the month and again on the first Tuesday of the month, when the board of the Reserve Bank meets to make its decision.

Every month (except January) the Reserve Bank of Australia sets the official cash rate. This rate affects the borrowing costs of banks and in turn affects interest rates on home loans, savings accounts and more. The cash rate is not only an indicator of the country's economic health. It has a direct impact on many Australian borrowers' home loan interest rates.

Read on to see our expert predictions on the cash rate and learn what the cash rate is and how it affects your financial products.

By signing up, you agree to the finder.com.au Privacy & Cookies Policy and Terms of Use, Disclaimer & Privacy Policy

The latest cash rate analysis from the experts

Here are the most recent cash rate predictions and commentary from the experts in our panel for the August 2020 cash rate decision.

July
HOLD
August
Hold
The RBA has indicated that they will not change interest rates in the foreseeable future. They are not going to move to negative interest rates, and they will not raise interest rates until unemployment rate is 4.5%. That won't happen for a number of years
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
Monetary policy will continue to be sidelined over foreseeable future with no logical purpose served by a further cut to 0% and the prospect of a rise fanciful given economic conditions set to worsen
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
Having provided massive monetary stimulus back in March the RBA is still in “watch and wait” mode, with the focus on fiscal policy. It could still ease monetary policy a bit further later this year but the Bank does not see any value in going negative on rates, cutting to say 0.1% is hardly worth the effort (although its possible) which leaves more QE as the main tool for any further easing. And rate hikes at still at least 3 years away.
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
The outlook for the unemployment rate sent shivers up spines recently and should see rates remain steady and low for the foreseeable future, as attention turns to the Government’s efforts to stimulate the economy.
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
With little further room to move and impact to be gained, the RBA will want to keep the last traditional MP action in reserve for any further major deterioration. It will also want to see the impact of other stimulus and support measures being deployed by government.
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
RBA will hold interest rates for the foreseeable future with the outlook for the recovery very uncertain.
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
I believe the RBA will not reduce cash rate any further and as economy improves, will be keen to increase back toward 2%.
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
Deepest economic contraction since Great Depression
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
It's a wild guess The RBA should reduce rates, including going negative not that it will make much difference, but it has said it won't. At some stage, it will increase them but it will be a long while coming.
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
COVID-19 continues to create gross economic uncertainty, domestically and globally. However, given the large ongoing bond issues by federal and state governments to fund huge budget deficits due to responses to contain the virus' spread, market interest rates should continue to rise, with the 3 year bond rate already above the RBA's target 0.25%. The dollar has appreciated some 25% March-July reflecting capital inflow chasing Australia's AAA rated bonds and could keep climbing as happenned post GFC, to the detriment of industries in the tradables sector of the economy, making economic recovery that much harder.
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
Future still just so uncertain
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
Interest rate movements will do little to address present and ongoing economic challenges Australia faces as a result of the global pandemic. In economic or financial terms, the key focus must now be on Government Fiscal Policy, and in particular the ongoing levels of financial support needed to save and support the economy.
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
Uncertainty around the timing of the recovery both within and without Australia, and the likelihood that the economic impact will extend well into 2021.
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
RBA forward guidance- no change until significant progress toward full employment and inflation sustainably 2-3%YoY
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
The RBA still appear to have no appetite for negative interest rates, although a cut from 0.25 to 0.10 is possible. Most likely rates are on hold for 2 or more years, before very gradually rising.
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
We're in a world of deflation and unemployment, which will persist for the foreseeable future.
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
Covid crisis causing unprecedented impact and RBA Must do all it can to stimulate investment and growth
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
We expect the RBA to launch fresh quantitative easing next year as it becomes clear inflation will be weaker than the Bank expects.
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
I think it's quite possible that the RBA won't raise the cash rate until 2023, and that's beyond the time scale allowed in your question
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
The RBA has flagged that the cash rate will remain on hold until economic conditions are more positive and certain. Property markets have been one beneficiary of low interest rates over recent months with LJ Hooker agents, across the country, reporting elevated levels of enquiry and solid attendance numbers at auctions and open homes.
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
The RBA willl continue to keep rates where they are until there is a material improvement in repairing the economic damage done by Covid-19. Unemployment is likely to stay well above their targets for a long time.
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
No way to know when the RBA will consider any change to rates until Covid is behind us. Doubtful that they will reduce rates given that a rate reduction would not have much impact.
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
All depends on what happens when the next stimulus package kicks in and what happens as companies start having to report more regular income changes.
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
There is very little evidence to suggest that the RBA will change the cash rate at its August meeting. In a speech delivered on the 21st of July Governor Lowe reaffirmed the Reserve Bank board’s strategy outlined in its March package and ruled out the possibility of negative interest rates in Australia. In the meantime, borrowers can continue to access an extremely competitive home loan interest rate environment.
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
RBA commentary to the market rates will remain steady indefinitely
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
We are in a very uncertain economical environment with Covid 19
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
It’s unlikely there’ll be a change in the near future.
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
It will be some time before the RBA starts to signal that they are contemplating an increase in the cash rate. The prospect of a strong and swift recovery was evident in June, with a number of headline indicators forming healthy V’s. Thousands of jobs had been recovered in June, retail sales had recovered and business and consumer confidence was up. But virus outbreaks in Victoria and NSW have very rapidly undone this trajectory- particularly for Victoria. The commitment by the government to extend JobKeeper and JobSeeker offers some certainty, but getting the virus back under control will offer more. We only have to look to Western Australia to see how quickly an economy and labour market can bounce back when the virus is contained and business and activity restrictions minimal.
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
As with last month, we don't see the cash rate rising until the second half of 2023 at the earliest.
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
The RBA has set themselves a number of targets that are required in order for them to lift the cash rate, they have also highlighted they think that will take around three years.Nothing that we are seeing at the moment makes me feel as if interest rate cuts are likely, nor do I think we will be getting hikes in the near future.
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
I think the policy rate will be unchanged between now and the end of 2022
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
Long long time away Possibly beyond 2023 But very unlikely to cut
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
Eventual rate hike is beyond the time horizon of this survey.
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
Inflationary pressure from sustained expansionary policy should be manifesting itself, around this time.
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
Despite their stated intention not to go lower, the patchiness of the economy will see the RBA cut
 
July
HOLD
August
Hold
Forward guidance by the RBA indicates that the cash rate will remain unchanged for at least 3 years
 
July
N/A
August
Hold
We expect the cash rate target will be on hold through to 2023. The board will want to ensure the recovery is on sure footing before increasing rates, and inflation will likely undershoot the target for some time yet. The next move will be up - the Bank has shown they have no desire to take rates into negative territory.
 

How has the cash rate changed over time?

The graph below shows the movements in the official cash rate over time and is updated every month whenever the RBA announces a cut, raise or hold.

What is the official cash rate?

The Reserve Bank of Australia is the country's central bank. The RBA's monetary policy has three key objectives which are set out in the Reserve Bank Act 1959:

  • The stability of the currency of Australia.
  • The maintenance of full employment in Australia.
  • The economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia.

Setting the official cash rate is one of the bank's key tools to influence monetary policy, inflation and the broader Australian economy. The bank's board meets on the first Tuesday of every month except January to set the cash rate. The RBA will either cut, raise or hold the cash rate.

Their decision is influenced by a range of factors including inflation, the performance of the Aussie dollar, unemployment, the housing market, and Australia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

For example, if inflation rises above the target rate it means that Australians are spending their money too freely and prices are increasing too rapidly. But if the RBA raises interest rates to make it more expensive to borrow money, the economy will settle and price increases will slow down. Conversely, the RBA will drop interest rates if inflation is too low and the economy is stagnating, encouraging more Australians to spend more money and stimulate economic growth.

How the cash rate can impact your finances

A lower cash rate means borrowing money is cheaper. That's good news for people with mortgages, especially variable rate home loans, which are directly affected by the cash rate (fixed rate loans, as the name implies, don't change until the fixed period ends).

A higher cash rate makes borrowing money more expensive. But it also means interest rates on savings accounts can increase, which is good for savers.

Here's an example of how a change to the cash rate affects a home loan. Let's assume the following:

  • The RBA moves the cash rate in increments of 0.25%.
  • You have a variable rate home loan and your lender passes on the RBA's raise or cut in full.
  • Your loan term is 30 years.

Let's look at some example home loans:

Cash rate cut

  • Loan amount: $400,000
  • Interest rate: 3.50%
  • Monthly repayment: $1,796
  • Rate cut: -0.25%
  • New rate: 3.25%
  • New monthly repayment: $1,740
  • Saving: $56 a month or $672 a year

Cash rate rise

  • Loan amount: $600,000
  • Interest rate: 3.50%
  • Monthly repayment: $2,694
  • Rate rise: 0.25%
  • New rate: 3.75%
  • New monthly repayment: $2,778
  • Extra cost: $84 a month or $1,008 a year

What should I do if the cash rate changes?

See how changes to the cash rate can affect your savings, term deposits, and home loans and what you can do about it.

If the cash rate rises

Check your loan's interest rate. If it has increased, ask your lender for a rate discount or see if they have a similar product with a better rate. You should also look at other rates on the market and consider refinancing if you find a cheaper loan.

If the cash rate gets cut

See how your lender responds to the cut. If they don't pass on the full rate cut, ask for a rate discount, and if you're still not happy start comparing what other deals are in the market. Some lenders have been known to pass on more than the official rate cut after an RBA announcement.

If the cash rate holds

Compare other variable rate home loans to make sure you're still getting the best deal. If rates are tipped to rise in the near future you may also want to compare fixed rates.

If the cash rate rises

Find a high interest savings account which offers the same features and fees but with a better rate.

If the cash rate gets cut

Consider comparing a competitive term deposit rate so your interest earnings don't suffer.

If the cash rate holds

Carry out a quick comparison to make sure you're getting the best return on your money. See what promotions banks are offering and find out if switching is worth your while.

Fixed rate home loans aren't directly affected by changes to the cash rate. But the cash rate does influence lenders decisions to set fixed rates. If you're already on a fixed rate loan there's not much you can do until the fixed rate period ends.

It is possible to exit a loan during the fixed period but there are break costs for doing so.

If the cash rate rises

Your rate won't rise as you locked it in, so you can relax a little. If your fixed rate is soon to end, start comparing what deals are being offered so you don't find yourself scrambling to lock in another rate.

If the cash rate gets cut

If you feel your home loan is no longer competitive, you might want to obtain a quote from your lender to find out possible exit costs. If this figure is reasonable, you might want to consider comparing variable home loans. Use our switching costs calculator to see if you'd save.

If the cash rate holds

Because your rate is fixed for an agreed period of time, a decision by the RBA to hold won't have as much of an effect on you depending on how long you still have to go in your fixed term. As mentioned above, you might still want to monitor the other deals in the market to keep informed.

If the cash rate rises

If rates rise, savings accounts rates could be increased as well. If this happens, you might want to compare the rates of high interest savings accounts. Remember that most term deposits have interest penalties if you withdraw your funds early, so keep this in mind.

If the cash rate gets cut

Your rate won't change because it's locked in, but if you're nearing the end of your term start comparing both high interest savings accounts and term deposits to find a good deal.

If the cash rate holds

Compare accounts and ensure you're aware of what's being offered in the market.

Check out Finder's RBA survey press releases

RBA news and announcements

Ask an Expert

You are about to post a question on finder.com.au:

  • Do not enter personal information (eg. surname, phone number, bank details) as your question will be made public
  • finder.com.au is a financial comparison and information service, not a bank or product provider
  • We cannot provide you with personal advice or recommendations
  • Your answer might already be waiting – check previous questions below to see if yours has already been asked

Finder only provides general advice and factual information, so consider your own circumstances, or seek advice before you decide to act on our content. By submitting a question, you're accepting our Terms of Use, Disclaimer & Privacy Policy and Privacy & Cookies Policy.

46 Responses

  1. Default Gravatar
    octoJune 18, 2018

    how long can AUD interest rate remain Low…..?

    how soon will the AUD follow the US FED Rate Hike…….?

    thank you

    • Default Gravatar
      NikkiJune 20, 2018

      Hi Octo!

      Thanks for getting in touch!

      To know more information on your questions, you can fill in your email address in the box provided and you’ll be updated on RBA’s decisions on the official cash rate target.

      While we provide you with general information, please know that we don’t stand as a representation for RBA or any company featured on our site.

      Hope that clarifies!

      Cheers,
      Nikki

  2. Default Gravatar
    TaneeshaMay 24, 2018

    Do you think the cash rate will stay the same at the June RBA meeting?

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      JoshuaMay 24, 2018Staff

      Hi Taneesha,

      Thanks for getting in touch with finder. I hope all is well for you. :)

      Unfortunately, we are not in the best place to make a prediction. However, you might get an idea whether the RBA cash rate will rise or fall by looking at the factors that affect it. These factors may include:

      – Household debt
      – Inflation
      – Wage growth
      – Consumer Confidence Index
      – Unemployment

      I hope this helps. Should you have further questions, please don’t hesitate to reach us out again.

      Have a wonderful day!

      Cheers,
      Joshua

  3. Default Gravatar
    BrookMay 5, 2018

    What do you think that how the international economic condition influence the cash rate?

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      JeniMay 6, 2018Staff

      Hi Brook,

      Thank you for getting in touch with finder.

      This is nice question. Domestic financial conditions remain expansionary. There has been some tightening in short-term
      money markets, which has flowed through to a small increase in funding costs for a range of financial institutions and businesses. However, borrowing rates remain low for households and businesses. Growth in housing credit has eased since mid last year, particularly for credit extended to investors, while growth in business debt has remained moderate. The Australian dollar remains within its narrow range of the past two years. Financial market prices suggest that the cash rate is expected to remain unchanged this year and to increase around mid 2019. If you are eager to learn more about the domestic financial condition according to RBA, please check out this link.

      I hope this helps.

      Have a great day!

      Cheers,
      Jeni

  4. Default Gravatar
    RobJune 11, 2017

    What do you think will be the next move for RBA on cash rate and when?

    Thank you!

    • Default Gravatar
      JonathanJune 11, 2017

      Hi Rob!

      Thanks for the comment.

      As of the moment, most of resident rate experts predict that rates will be the same. The cash rate target is released on the first Tuesday of every month except January.

      You can follow the updated forecast right here.

      Hope this helps.

      Cheers,
      Jonathan

    • Default Gravatar
      RobJune 11, 2017

      Thanks Jonathan, I meant in the longer term, 6-12 months.

    • Default Gravatar
      JonathanJune 11, 2017

      Hi Rob!

      We appreciate your follow-up.

      Currently, there are multiple factors that need to be considered and due to the volatility of these factors, it is a bit hard to conclude whether they’ll leave the rates unchanged for the next few months or not.

      If you have further inquiries, you may contact:

      Media and Communications
      Secretary’s Department
      Reserve Bank of Australia
      SYDNEY
      Phone: +61 2 9551 9720
      Fax: +61 2 9551 8033
      Email: rbainfo@rba.gov.au

      Hope this helps.

      Cheers,
      Jonathan

  5. Default Gravatar
    JulieSeptember 1, 2016

    When do you think the RBA will start raising rates?

    • Default Gravatar
      JodieSeptember 7, 2016

      Hi Julie,

      Thank you for contacting finder.com.au we are a financial comparison website and general information service.

      It is hard to predict the movement of the cash rate as it is based on a multitude of factors that are continually changing however 7 out of the 38 experts we surveyed in our latest RBA survey for September 2016 said they predict it will start going up in July 2017 or beyond.

      Regards
      Jodie

  6. Default Gravatar
    EricFebruary 25, 2016

    Hi Belinda

    Appreciate if you would also send me informations regarding findings of monthly RBA survey.

    Regards
    Eric

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaFebruary 26, 2016Staff

      Hi Eric,

      Thanks for getting in touch.

      On this page, you can view the RBA Cash Rate Target Announcements for each month from February 2015 until February 2016. You can also view the commentary of our resident rate experts in the lead up to each Board meeting which occurs on the first Tuesday of every month (except January).

      Please feel free to sign up to receive our detailed RBA cash rate updates by completing the form provided above.

      Regards,
      Belinda

  7. Default Gravatar
    SyedDecember 8, 2015

    Hi,
    My new house is ready now and wondering what is the best time to sell, should I put my house in the market now or January or wait for the February. I am not committed any where so I can wait.

    Your advise needed.

    Thanks

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaDecember 9, 2015Staff

      Hi Syed,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      As finder.com.au is an online comparison service so we are not licensed to give you personal advice regarding the best time to sell your property.

      You can read our guide here about considerations when selling your house.

      All the best,
      Belinda

  8. Default Gravatar
    loooooolAugust 16, 2015

    hello.
    i wonder if i could receive some information regarding not only the latest current economic situation, but also cash rate movements over the year.

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaAugust 17, 2015Staff

      Hi Dongho,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      Above on this page you can view the ‘Reserve Bank monthly announcements’ to read about the cash rate movements and monetary policy decisions that have occurred over the course of this year. You can also sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates by filling in the form provided above.

      In regards to the current economic situation, finder.com.au is an online comparative website and we can’t comment on the activity of the broader Australian economy.

      Thanks,
      Belinda

  9. Default Gravatar
    OliJuly 17, 2015

    Can you please send through the information on the RBA via email?
    I’m doing a school Economic assignment on the RBA and financial markets

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaJuly 17, 2015Staff

      Hi Oli,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      I’ve emailed you with some information regarding the findings from our monthly RBA survey.

      Please note that on this page you can sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates.

      Thanks,
      Belinda

  10. Default Gravatar
    yazminJuly 7, 2015

    Hi,

    I was just wondering if I could have information regarding how interests rates will unfold over the next year. In particular, if the current interest rates will be appropriate for the economic conditions in Australia.

    Thank you
    Yazmin

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaJuly 8, 2015Staff

      Hi Yazmin,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      Firstly, I’d like to point out that finder.com.au is an online comparison and general information service so we’re not in a position to forecast interest rates.

      However, on this page you can sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates which you might find useful.

      Thanks,
      Belinda

Ask a question
Go to site