RBA leaves cash rate unchanged for sixth straight month

Belinda Punshon 3 November 2015 NEWS

RBA cash rate target announcement november 2015

Reserve Bank holds cash rate at 2.0%

Results from the finder.com.au Reserve Bank Survey showed that 80% (24/30) resident rate experts correctly anticipated no cash rate movement for Melbourne Cup day, as evidenced by the outcome of today’s Board meeting.

Experts argued that an immediate cash rate cut to offset Westpac and other lenders’ decision to increase variable mortgages rates was unlikely and thus the Reserve Bank judged that holding the cash rate for November 2015 was the appropriate course of action this month.

Results from the survey found that nearly 30% of leading economists are predicting a cash rate fall by the end of the year. Of these, nearly 20% believed that the cash rate would fall at today’s Board meeting, while 10% believed a cash rate cut would occur in December this year.

However, survey participants were divided about how low the cash rate would fall- 55% of experts don’t believe it will fall below 2.0%, while 28% predict the cash rate will fall to 1.75%, and 17% expect the cash rate to dip to 1.5% this cycle.

Although all of the Big Four have lifted their variable rates for owner occupiers in recent weeks, many of the resident rate experts don’t believe the Reserve Bank will follow suit just yet. That is, more than 50% of experts said the cash rate will not increase until beyond 2016, while nearly 25% believe a rate rise will take place in the final quarter of 2016.

Why hold the cash rate?

Many of the resident rate experts in the finder.com.au Reserve Bank Survey argued that the Reserve Bank is optimistic about labour market conditions, and thus a rate move would be premature at this point in time as the new fiscal outlook is yet to be assessed.

The Melbourne Cup period is traditionally a time where the Reserve Bank makes a move with cash rates, and coupled with the out-of-cycle rate hikes by many of Australia’s major lenders, many believed that the Reserve Bank would cut rates this month to soften the blow of higher rates for owner-occupiers. However, the fact that lenders moved independently could be an indication that they believed rates would be maintained.

As the property market softens and the Australian dollar remains low, many believe that the Reserve Bank is satisfied with the status quo and will not initiate a rate movement until economic data is further reviewed.

Additionally, the Reserve Bank would not want to further fuel house prices through a rate reduction, particularly as the Sydney and Melbourne markets are beginning to cool.

Are more independent rate hikes on the horizon?

71% of resident rate experts predict more out of cycle rate changes to be announced in the months to come. Our money expert, Michelle Hutchison, says that out of cycle rate rises are likely to continue across the Australian banking sector, the impact of which will be felt by borrowers with a variable mortgage.

“Melbourne Cup day is traditionally a popular period to move rates. The cash rate has moved on Melbourne Cup day 10 times since 1991 when the modern adjustment cycle began – down four times, and up six.

“The f inder.com.au Reserve Bank Survey found that 71% of experts predict that the increase of variable home loan interest rates out of cycle – kickstarted by Westpac earlier this month – would continue across the sector. As well as the big four jumping on board this trend, St George and Macquarie Bank also have imminent rate rises, which is six banks in total”, she said.

How could a future rate rise affect my repayments?

When contemplating rate hikes, Michelle Hutchison says that you should pose the question to your lender to see whether the bank is planning to increase its variable home loan rates.

“Some lenders, however, have a tendency to keep their rate rises quiet, which can make it difficult for Australians to keep track of movements in the home loan market. It’s important for borrowers to ask the question when they are speaking to lenders or applying for a new loan to find out if they have recently made any announcements or are planning to. It’s safe to assume that more lenders will follow these banks’ leads by raising their rates too.

“Based on a $300,000 mortgage and the current average variable owner-occupied home loan rate of 5.10 percent, a rate rise of 0.18 percentage points (the average rate rise of the six lenders who’ve announced rate rises thus far) will amount to an extra $33 per month for borrowers, or potentially $396 per year or $11,880 over 30 years.

Find out how a variable rate rise could affect your mortgage repayments by entering your details in the calculator below.

“The big banks set the benchmark for what the market will do – five out of six lenders are moving on the same day as Westpac, with their new increased rates to become effective on 20 November.

“However, some smaller lenders may use this opportunity to win over new borrowers, by not following the big banks’ lead at all, or not raising their rates by as much as the market average. Regardless, it’s a great time to compare rates to see if you can get a better deal – a small change to your interest rate can save you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan”, she said.

Thinking of fixing your rate or refinancing? Compare different home loans in the table below

Rates last updated November 22nd, 2018
$
Loan purpose
Offset account
Loan type
Repayment type
Your filter criteria do not match any product
Name Product Interest Rate (p.a.) Comp Rate^ (p.a.) Application Fee Ongoing Fees Max LVR Monthly Payment Short Description
3.59%
3.59%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Enjoy flexible repayments, a redraw facility and the ability to split your loan. Plus, pay no application or ongoing fees.
3.59%
3.61%
$0
$0 p.a.
90%
Get a low interest rate loan with no ongoing fees. Plus you can make extra repayments and free redraw online. Available with just a 10% deposit.
3.64%
3.66%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
A simple mortgage with a competitive interest rate and no application or monthly fees. Borrow up to $2000000 from a convenient online lender.
3.57%
3.58%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Get a very low interest rate and avoid big fees. Apply online for full approval in under 30 minutes and add a 100% offset account for $10 a month.
3.87%
3.91%
$600
$0 p.a.
95%
A home loan with no ongoing fee and a redraw facility that you can borrow up to 95% LVR.
3.54%
3.57%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
A competitive variable essentials interest rate product aimed at refinancers looking to switch to a lower rate.
3.68%
3.70%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
This loan offers a competitive variable rate and a 100% offset account to help save you on interest repayments.
3.64%
3.64%
$0
$0 p.a.
70%
A low interest rate home loan with no application or ongoing fees.
3.74%
3.74%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
A basic owner-occupier home loan with a low variable rate that requires a 20% deposit.
3.49%
3.53%
$250
$0 p.a.
80%
A very low variable interest rate for borrowers with a 20% deposit. Add a 100% offset account for $10 a month.
3.54%
3.58%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Get a competitive rate, save on fees and access a 100% offset account plus redraw facility. $900 cashback offer.
3.68%
3.82%
$0
$10 monthly ($120 p.a.)
80%
Get double Velocity Frequent Flyer Points with this mortgage to spend on flights and more (for a limited time, subject to eligibility requirements). Redraw facility available on this variable rate home loan. Competitive interest rate.
3.89%
3.91%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
This variable rate loan keeps the features simple and fees low. This loan is offered by a 100% online lender.
3.64%
3.64%
$0
$0 p.a.
70%
A basic variable home loan that offers a competitive interest rate with no application fees and no ongoing fees.
3.79%
3.80%
$0
$0 p.a.
90%
Get one free online redraw per month and pay no ongoing fees. Application fees are waived for loans above $150,000. Plus $1,500 cashback offer for eligible refinancers.
3.75%
3.80%
$600
$0 p.a.
90%
Competitive variable rate mortgage with a partial offset account. Get this loan with a 10% deposit.
3.75%
4.72%
$0
$299 p.a.
95%
Owner-occupiers can enjoy a discounted fixed rate, a rate lock feature and the ability to make additional repayments.
3.79%
4.87%
$0
$395 p.a.
95%
Low deposit home loan. Enjoy flexible repayment options while paying limited fees.
3.49%
4.57%
$0
$395 p.a.
90%
Loans over $150000 get a discount off an already low fixed rate. Available for NSW, QLD and ACT residents only.
3.75%
3.75%
$0
$0 p.a.
70%
A simple mortgage with no application or ongoing fees that has extra repayments plus split and redraw options. Requires a 30% deposit.
3.59%
4.00%
$845
$350 p.a.
90%
Get a low variable interest rate and buy a property with just a 10% deposit. 100% offset account attached.
3.87%
3.91%
$0
$10 monthly ($120 p.a.)
90%
Get Velocity Frequent Flyer Points at settlement, monthly and every three years, plus the option to make up to $10,000 a year in extra repayments.
3.68%
3.70%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
A competitive variable rate mortgage for owner occupiers that comes with a no fee debit card with a $5,000 limit.
3.64%
3.59%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Fast, 100% online application process. Very limited fees. Optional offset account (with fee).
3.74%
4.13%
$0
$349 p.a.
90%
Get a sharp rate plus package discounts and a 100% offset account.
3.69%
4.12%
$0
$395 p.a.
80%
Unlock a range of savings with this competitive package home loan offer. Offset account and redraw facility included.
3.67%
3.72%
$600
$0 p.a.
80%
A great interest rate home loan offer with unlimited redraw and unlimited extra payments.
4.17%
4.21%
$600
$0 p.a.
95%
Variable rate home loan from one of the big 4 banks. Available with just a 5% deposit.
3.84%
3.85%
$0
$0 p.a.
70%
Keep your LVR at 70% or below and enjoy a special discounted rate. Also, pay no application or ongoing fees.
3.64%
3.78%
$0
$10 monthly ($120 p.a.)
80%
Earn double Velocity Frequent Flyer Points on your mortgage for a limited time (subject to eligibility requirements). Plus, access a 100% offset account to save on interest.
3.79%
3.82%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
An essentials variable investor mortgage with a high borrowing amount so you can fund a large purchase.
3.75%
4.00%
$0
$248 p.a.
70%
Borrowers with a 30% deposit can get this competitive rate. Cut down on interest costs with a 100% offset account.
3.70%
3.70%
$0
$0 p.a.
70%
Get a discount for keeping your LVR at $70% or below with this innovative online lender.
3.84%
4.22%
$345
$0 p.a.
80%
Flexible, competitive variable rate that has flexible repayments, split and redraw facilities.
3.59%
3.58%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Apply online and get fast approval for this fixed rate, low-fee loan with redraw facilities. Add a 100% offset account for a small fee.
3.89%
4.27%
$0
$395 p.a.
80%
New borrowers or refinancers can get a discounted rate with this package loan.
3.84%
3.84%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Pay no application or ongoing fees and get access to a free redraw facility with this innovative online lender.
3.62%
3.62%
$0
$0 p.a.
95%
A low deposit mortgage with a competitive rate and plenty of flexibility. QLD residents only. Eligible borrowers can get a 15% discount on home and contents insurance for the life of their loan.
3.72%
3.74%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Save on interest by taking advantage of a 100% offset account along with no ongoing fees or application fees.
3.85%
3.85%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Low fee loan with extra repayments. Pay no application and ongoing fees and take advantage of split and redraw options.
3.74%
3.74%
$0
$0 p.a.
110%
Pay no deposit or LMI and get a discounted rate with this family pledge loan. Requires a family member to act as guarantor. NSW, Qld and ACT only.
3.69%
4.08%
$0
$349 p.a.
90%
Package your loan with other AMP products and save on rates and fees.
3.71%
3.71%
$0
$0 p.a.
70%
A variable rate home loan that has a lot of flexible features. This loan has a 100% offset account.
4.13%
4.14%
$0
$0 p.a.
90%
Access a fee-free offset account and a special interest rate for investors.
3.89%
3.94%
$0
$0 p.a.
90%
Borrow up to 90% of the value of the property you're buying, and pay no application fee.
3.77%
3.82%
$600
$0 p.a.
90%
Buy your home with just a 10% deposit, few fees and a reasonable interest rate.
3.93%
3.94%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
A low-fee line of credit loan from an online lender. Unlock the equity in your home and make interest-only repayments with a competitive rate.
3.59%
4.14%
$395
$0 p.a.
80%
A one year fixed rate offer with no ongoing bank fees.
3.99%
4.86%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Access a fee-free 100% offset account and pay no application or ongoing fees.
3.69%
4.54%
$0
$395 p.a.
90%
A fixed rate loan with a 100% offset account and the option to make additional repayments. Loans over $150000 receive a discounted rate. NSW, QLD and ACT residents only.
3.74%
3.74%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Pay no application or ongoing fees and get access to a redraw facility and flexible repayment schedule.
3.94%
4.95%
$595
$0 p.a.
95%
Borrow up to 95% LVR of the value of the property you're buying and pay no application or ongoing fees.
4.04%
3.93%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Fix your rate for 1 year and make interest-only payments.
3.99%
4.62%
$395
$0 p.a.
80%
Investors can enjoy flexible repayments and an easy application process with this pioneering online lender.
3.89%
4.24%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Fix your rate and minimise repayments for 2 years with this interest-only investor mortgage.
4.14%
4.81%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Pay no application fees and access a fee-free redraw facility with this fixed rate loan.
3.89%
3.94%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Pay no application or ongoing fee and borrow up to 80% LVR.
3.74%
4.01%
$395
$0 p.a.
80%
A competitive 3 year fixed rate with no ongoing bank fees.

Compare up to 4 providers

What about the property market?

Results from the finder.com.au Reserve Bank Survey found that 66% of experts expect property prices to rise, or remain high, despite increasing rates for variable mortgages. Nearly half, or 49% or experts, expect no change to property prices and 17% forecast that the market will remain heated, and property values will continue to soar.

Although 34% of experts predicted a fall in property prices, the majority of experts disagreed as they noted that the market is strong enough to absorb rate increases without obstructing market growth or activity.

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