RBA Cash Rate

Expert analysis on the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate decisions

hold

1.00%

Cash rate hold

On 9 August 2019 the RBA held the cash rate at 1.00%.

Finder surveys over 40 economists and property experts every month to evaluate the future of the RBA's cash rate decision. Experts also provide commentary on the current state of the property market and the Australian economy and their predictions for the cash rate's future. This page contains recent cash rate analysis and predictions for the next rate decision. We update the page with new forecasts at the end of the month and again on the first Tuesday of the month, when the board of the Reserve Bank meets to make its decision.

Skip ahead to read the latest analysis, see how the cash rate has changed over time and learn more about how the cash rate affects you.

96%of our resident rate experts

correctly predicted the cash rate to hold at 1.00% on Tuesday 6 August 2019 View forecasts →

Next meeting: 2:30pm 3 September 2019

What our experts think the next RBA move will be

As of August 2019 only 7% of the experts in our panel think the next RBA rate move will be up. 93% predict a future cut.

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The latest cash rate analysis from the experts

+ Open all commentary

Here are the most recent cash rate predictions and commentary from the experts in our panel. At the end of the month we'll update this page with the latest predictions for September 2019.

July

Hold

August

Hold

Having decided to go back to back with rate cuts over past two months, the RBA will likely hold over coming months to gauge impact. Another cut this year however cannot be discounted, particularity if the labour market deteriorates as is increasingly likely. Continued sharp declines in planned construction, ongoing subdued consumption and the associated shakeout in the retail sector will constrain jobs growth despite low rates. With the US and Eurozone now also pushing rates down, any likely downward trajectory on the AUD due to lower local rates will be neutralized. Lower rates however are a positive for housing markets with signs predictably emerging of a revitalisation of buyer activity - particularly in Sydney. The RBA however will likely remain perplexed with the ineffectiveness of monetary policy to re-inflate the Australian economy - with higher jobless levels now looking increasingly likely.

Leanne Pilkington
July

Cut

August

Hold

Consecutive cuts in the previous two months need time to take effect. The impacts are yet to be felt so another cut now would amount to guess work. The RBA should leave the door open to a further cut down the track once the economy’s adjustment to the new 1.00% cash rate is clearer.

Stephen Koukoulas

+ Read Stephen's full forecast
July

Cut

August

Hold

Waiting for recent stimulus to impact.

PeterGilmore
July

Cut

August

Hold

Further deterioration required to trigger a further cut.

July

Hold

August

Hold

I believe they went too early with the second cut. They now need to 'cool their heels' a little to allow the 2 cuts to take effect.

John Hewson
July

Hold

August

Hold

Wait to see effects of 50 bsp cuts.

MIchaelYardneyHeadshot100px
July

Cut

August

Hold

While the RBA has signalled it is prepared to drop rates further to stimulate employment and boost inflation to within its desired band, it will now wait and see how its two recent rate cuts are working.

Julie Toth
July

N/A

August

Hold

This year has already seen two cash rate cuts, a federal election and a sizeable tax rebate for many households. We should now pause, wait for the effects and then take stock.

Jeffrey Sheen
July

N/A

August

Hold

Need to wait to see if Australian economy responds to previous stimulus measures this year.

Craig Emerson
July

N/A

August

Hold

When the RBA changes the cash rate it usually does it in two successive months and then waits to a assess impacts.

July

Cut

August

Hold

Despite Governor Lowe flagging an extended period of low interest rates and his strong commitment to achieving the inflation target, the Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to do the hat trick and cut the official cash rate to 0.75% in August. With the cash rate at 1%, the RBA said there's no immediate need for further monetary easing, although a third cut is on the cards in October or November, based on current economic factors.

Mortgage Choice data shows fixed rate home loans demand is the lowest in eight years (sitting at a mere 13.5%) and we have seen a significant spike in demand for variable loans at the end of July. Lenders on our panel have trimmed fixed rates to entice borrowers to fix, which suggests their long-term outlook is that rates will remain low.

All of this has resulted in mortgage holders finally feeling the benefits of lowered interest rates and, added to APRA's serviceability changes, which reduces the home loan servicing floor rate from 7% to the borrower's base rate + 2.5%, will enable people to borrow more. In turn, this will put some positive motion back into Australia's property cycle just in time for Spring selling season.

Rebecca Cassells
July

N/A

August

Hold

Moving the cash rate any lower than 1.0% at this point will create further uncertainty in the market, countering any potential benefits and will do little to stimulate investment and consumption responses. Unemployment has held steady as labour force participation continues to climb and inflation has gained some modest ground on latest figures. Best to hold for the moment.

July

Cut

August

Hold

RBA waiting to see any impact from recent stimulus Will need to do more but not yet.

July

Cut

August

Hold

The RBA is now is wait and see mode - basically waiting to see the impact of the rate cuts in June and July and tax refunds for low and middle income earners.

AlisonBoothANU
July

Cut

August

Hold

Not warranted to have further decrease yet though I predict one later this year.

Tim
July

Cut

August

Hold

With two successive cuts, the RBA will want to stand back and observe the effects while also giving the consumer the time to digest the actions as otherwise at risk of further scaring the consumer around the urgency of the cuts, having the opposite effect to being desired.

Thieliant
July

Cut

August

Hold

The RBA will want to assess the labour market data and leading indicators of the labour market before committing to further cuts.

Christine Williams
July

N/A

August

Hold

With the loosing of APRA's policy together with lower interest rates, the property market has adjusted positively.

Mala Raghavan
July

N/A

August

Hold

Inflation rose slightly, due to rising fuel prices, medical bills and depreciating Australian dollar. However, the rate of 1.6% is still below the target level. Hence, the board would hold on, to see if by maintaining the cash rate at 1%, help to boost the inflation and the economy in the next quarter.

Alex Joiner
July

Cut

August

Hold

The RBA have stressed that further policy accommodation will be forthcoming "if needed". This implies that it would like to assess the impact of its initial 50bp of cuts on the real economy and asset prices before moving again.

KatrinaEll
July

Hold

August

Hold

Further rate cuts are coming but the central bank will wait to assess the impact of earlier easing.

July

Cut

August

Hold

The RBA has signalled that it is open to lowering interest rates "if needed", but there is less urgency in its language than previously. After the back-to-back rate cuts in June and July, the RBA is therefore likely to pause. Nonetheless, the soft pace of growth in the economy and softening leading indicators on employment point to a risk that the unemployment rate will rise, suggesting the RBA will act and lower official interest rates further later this year.

Brian Parker
July

Hold

August

Hold

After a couple of rate cuts I think they'll want to see a bit more data and perhaps watch how consumers respond to the tax cuts which have started to flow.

July

Cut

August

Hold

It is likely the RBA will pause to see the impact of the two decreases and will also want to hold some monetary policy capacity if needed re the global context.

July

Hold

August

Hold

N/A

Sveta Angelopoulos

+ Read Sveta's full forecast
July

Hold

August

Hold

Time needed to assess the progress of the economy and how the previous rate cuts and policy changes may be impacting.

July

Cut

August

Hold

No material change from the previous month in relation to key data points and the RBA has indicated time is needed to see if demand growth responds to recent stimulus.

Peter Haller
July

Hold

August

Hold

After cutting in June and July, the RBA will pause to see the impact of recent easing and wait for a potential boost in consumer spending resulting from tax return refunds.

Nicholas gruen
July

Cut

August

Hold

The Governor is reluctant to lower rates so, a pause can be a nod to him.

July

Cut

August

Hold

With the RBA cutting the cash rate twice in the past few months, we expect them to hold this month as they wait and see what impact the recent changes have had before making their next move.

Clement Allan Tisdell

Clement Allan Tisdell

+ Read Clement's full forecast
July

Hold

August

Hold

Probably the RBA can hold its ammunition for a little while.

Tony Makin
July

N/A

August

Hold

Allow the effects of the last cut to work through.

July

Cut

August

Hold

Time is needed for the two previous rate cuts to work their way through the economy. Also, further time is needed to assess the sustained direction of key indicators such as the rate of unemployment and inflation. The impact of international trade negotiations will also play an important role in determining the need or otherwise for another rate adjustment. The elephant in the room is the impact rate cuts are having on wealth inequality, specifically with regard to retirees who have seen their standard of living decline along with the earnings from their savings accounts. At some point, their interests will need to be given more priority when considering rate reductions. I can't see further rate reductions on their own providing the necessary stimulus to the economy - government spending initiatives must now take on a more predominant role.

DavidR
July

Cut

August

Hold

The RBA will probably take the opportunity to pause for a few months to observe the impact of the recent rate cuts, the tax cuts and the lower Australian Dollar, all of which should help to a degree.

July

Hold

August

Cut

1. Breakeven inflation is down to 1.4% pa 2. Dovish comments by RBA Governor last week.

AndrewRP

Andrew Reeve-Parker

+ Read Andrew's full forecast
July

Cut

August

Hold

Conducting a wait and see approach following the recent two cuts.

July

Hold

August

Hold

Because they have hinted it.

Jonathan Chancellor

+ Read Jonathan's full forecast
July

Cut

August

Hold

The RBA have the time to wait and see whether the two consecutive cuts make a difference.

July

N/A

August

Cut

They will wait and observe the impact of two rate cuts on economic growth.

July

Cut

August

Hold

There is sufficient stimulus in the system already, the RBA will want until they get an idea on the previous easings and the various fiscal and regulatory measures.

Malcolm Wood
July

Cut

August

Hold

RBA will wait to assess the impact of its 2 rate cuts in Jun-Jul.

Thieliant
July

Cut

August

Hold

The Bank's tone has been more balanced in recent communications. Therefore, we expect the RBA to remain on hold until the economic data deteriorate further by the end of this year.

Jordan Eliseo
July

Cut

August

Hold

The RBA has time to observe the impact of the last two rate cuts and upcoming tax cuts before making another reduction later 'if required'.

July

Hold

August

Hold

This decision will be a close call. The RBA has indicated its willingness to cut further, but the question is whether the next cut will be now or in a month or two.

July

Cut

August

Hold

Having cut rates at the last two meetings, the RBA will pause. However, Governor Lowe has placed the RBA in a difficult position by emphasising the view that the unemployment rate must hit 4.5% before sustained wage growth can be achieved. This sets up another RBA rate cut before year end.

July

N/A

August

Hold

RBA in wait and see made and following the labour market trends.

Watch our latest Australian property market update

How has the cash rate changed over time?

The graph above shows the movement in the official cash rate target. A lower cash rate reduces the cost of borrowing money so more people are encouraged to borrow - stimulating the economy. Higher interest rates tend to encourage spending. This is how a rise or fall in rates affects the level of supply and demand and therefore the level of inflation - which the RBA wants to keep in the target range of 2%-3%.

What is the official cash rate and who sets it?

Once a month, the RBA board meets to decide whether to raise the cash rate, lower it or keep it the same. Their decision will be influenced by a wide range of factors including inflation, the performance of the Aussie dollar, the housing market, Australia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and levels of consumer confidence. The board will assess all of these factors in relation to the RBA's goals and objectives before reaching a consensus on what to do with the official cash rate.

The RBA's monetary policy aims to achieve three key objectives which are set out in the Reserve Bank Act 1959:

  • The stability of the currency of Australia;
  • The maintenance of full employment in Australia; and
  • The economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia.

In order to reach those objectives, the RBA sets an inflation target of 2-3% over the medium term. In other words, the RBA wants the Consumer Price Index (CPI, based on the average prices for a range of common goods and services) to increase by between 2 and 3 per cent each year.

The bank can control inflation by making adjustments to the official cash rate. For example, if inflation rises above the target rate it means that Australians are spending their money too freely and prices are increasing too rapidly. But if the RBA raises interest rates to make it more expensive to borrow money, the economy will settle and price increases will slow down. Conversely, the RBA will drop interest rates if inflation is too low and the economy is stagnating, encouraging more Australians to spend more money and stimulate economic growth.

How the cash rate can impact your finances

See how the cash rate changes can affect your savings, term deposits, home loans and what you can do about it.

If the rate rises

Find an account which offers the same features and fees but with a better rate.

If the rate gets cut

Consider comparing a competitive term deposit rate so your interest earnings don't suffer.

If the rate holds

Carry out a quick comparison to make sure you're getting the best return on your money, see what promotions banks are offering.

Banks and other lenders all over the country use the RBA's official cash rate as the benchmark for the rates they offer on their variable rate home loans and other financial products. You may have seen or heard news stories following a rate change announcement by the RBA as economists predict when the banks will pass the RBA's change on to their customers.
If the rate rises

Ask your lender for a rate discount so that if rates do rise you won't be worse off, or alternatively, compare other variable or even fixed rate home loans to find a better deal.

If the rate gets cut

See how your lender responds to the cut. If they don't pass on the full rate cut, ask for a rate discount, and if you're still not happy start comparing what other deals are in the market. Some lenders have been known to pass on more than the official rate cut after an RBA announcement!

If the rate holds

Compare other variable rate home loans to make sure you're still getting the best deal. If rates are tipped to rise in the near future you may also want to compare fixed rates.

If the rate rises

Your rate won't rise as you locked it in, so you can relax a little. If your fixed rate is soon to end, start comparing what deals are being offered so you don't find yourself scrambling to lock in another rate.

If the rate gets cut

If you feel your home loan is no longer competitive, you might want to obtain a quote from your lender to find out possible exit costs. If this figure is reasonable, you might want to consider comparing variable home loans. Use our switching costs calculator to see if you'd save.

If the rate holds

Because your rate is fixed for an agreed period of time, a decision by the RBA to hold won't have as much of an effect on you depending on how long you still have to go in your fixed term. As mentioned above, you might still want to monitor the other deals in the market to keep informed.

If the rate rises

If rates rise, savings accounts rates could be increased as well. If this happens, you might want to compare the rates of high interest savings accounts. Remember that most term deposits have interest penalties if you withdraw your funds early, so keep this in mind.

If the rate gets cut

Your rate won't change because it's locked in, but if you're nearing the end of your term start comparing both high interest savings accounts and term deposits to find a good deal.

If the rate holds

Compare accounts and ensure you're aware of what's being offered in the market.

Check out Finder's RBA survey press releases

RBA news and announcements

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46 Responses

  1. Default Gravatar
    octoJune 18, 2018

    how long can AUD interest rate remain Low…..?

    how soon will the AUD follow the US FED Rate Hike…….?

    thank you

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      NikkiJune 20, 2018Staff

      Hi Octo!

      Thanks for getting in touch!

      To know more information on your questions, you can fill in your email address in the box provided and you’ll be updated on RBA’s decisions on the official cash rate target.

      While we provide you with general information, please know that we don’t stand as a representation for RBA or any company featured on our site.

      Hope that clarifies!

      Cheers,
      Nikki

  2. Default Gravatar
    TaneeshaMay 24, 2018

    Do you think the cash rate will stay the same at the June RBA meeting?

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      JoshuaMay 24, 2018Staff

      Hi Taneesha,

      Thanks for getting in touch with finder. I hope all is well for you. :)

      Unfortunately, we are not in the best place to make a prediction. However, you might get an idea whether the RBA cash rate will rise or fall by looking at the factors that affect it. These factors may include:

      – Household debt
      – Inflation
      – Wage growth
      – Consumer Confidence Index
      – Unemployment

      I hope this helps. Should you have further questions, please don’t hesitate to reach us out again.

      Have a wonderful day!

      Cheers,
      Joshua

  3. Default Gravatar
    BrookMay 5, 2018

    What do you think that how the international economic condition influence the cash rate?

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      JeniMay 6, 2018Staff

      Hi Brook,

      Thank you for getting in touch with finder.

      This is nice question. Domestic financial conditions remain expansionary. There has been some tightening in short-term
      money markets, which has flowed through to a small increase in funding costs for a range of financial institutions and businesses. However, borrowing rates remain low for households and businesses. Growth in housing credit has eased since mid last year, particularly for credit extended to investors, while growth in business debt has remained moderate. The Australian dollar remains within its narrow range of the past two years. Financial market prices suggest that the cash rate is expected to remain unchanged this year and to increase around mid 2019. If you are eager to learn more about the domestic financial condition according to RBA, please check out this link.

      I hope this helps.

      Have a great day!

      Cheers,
      Jeni

  4. Default Gravatar
    RobJune 11, 2017

    What do you think will be the next move for RBA on cash rate and when?

    Thank you!

    • Default Gravatar
      JonathanJune 11, 2017

      Hi Rob!

      Thanks for the comment.

      As of the moment, most of resident rate experts predict that rates will be the same. The cash rate target is released on the first Tuesday of every month except January.

      You can follow the updated forecast right here.

      Hope this helps.

      Cheers,
      Jonathan

    • Default Gravatar
      RobJune 11, 2017

      Thanks Jonathan, I meant in the longer term, 6-12 months.

    • Default Gravatar
      JonathanJune 11, 2017

      Hi Rob!

      We appreciate your follow-up.

      Currently, there are multiple factors that need to be considered and due to the volatility of these factors, it is a bit hard to conclude whether they’ll leave the rates unchanged for the next few months or not.

      If you have further inquiries, you may contact:

      Media and Communications
      Secretary’s Department
      Reserve Bank of Australia
      SYDNEY
      Phone: +61 2 9551 9720
      Fax: +61 2 9551 8033
      Email: rbainfo@rba.gov.au

      Hope this helps.

      Cheers,
      Jonathan

  5. Default Gravatar
    JulieSeptember 1, 2016

    When do you think the RBA will start raising rates?

    • Default Gravatar
      JodieSeptember 7, 2016

      Hi Julie,

      Thank you for contacting finder.com.au we are a financial comparison website and general information service.

      It is hard to predict the movement of the cash rate as it is based on a multitude of factors that are continually changing however 7 out of the 38 experts we surveyed in our latest RBA survey for September 2016 said they predict it will start going up in July 2017 or beyond.

      Regards
      Jodie

  6. Default Gravatar
    EricFebruary 25, 2016

    Hi Belinda

    Appreciate if you would also send me informations regarding findings of monthly RBA survey.

    Regards
    Eric

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaFebruary 26, 2016Staff

      Hi Eric,

      Thanks for getting in touch.

      On this page, you can view the RBA Cash Rate Target Announcements for each month from February 2015 until February 2016. You can also view the commentary of our resident rate experts in the lead up to each Board meeting which occurs on the first Tuesday of every month (except January).

      Please feel free to sign up to receive our detailed RBA cash rate updates by completing the form provided above.

      Regards,
      Belinda

  7. Default Gravatar
    SyedDecember 8, 2015

    Hi,
    My new house is ready now and wondering what is the best time to sell, should I put my house in the market now or January or wait for the February. I am not committed any where so I can wait.

    Your advise needed.

    Thanks

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaDecember 9, 2015Staff

      Hi Syed,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      As finder.com.au is an online comparison service so we are not licensed to give you personal advice regarding the best time to sell your property.

      You can read our guide here about considerations when selling your house.

      All the best,
      Belinda

  8. Default Gravatar
    loooooolAugust 16, 2015

    hello.
    i wonder if i could receive some information regarding not only the latest current economic situation, but also cash rate movements over the year.

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaAugust 17, 2015Staff

      Hi Dongho,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      Above on this page you can view the ‘Reserve Bank monthly announcements’ to read about the cash rate movements and monetary policy decisions that have occurred over the course of this year. You can also sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates by filling in the form provided above.

      In regards to the current economic situation, finder.com.au is an online comparative website and we can’t comment on the activity of the broader Australian economy.

      Thanks,
      Belinda

  9. Default Gravatar
    OliJuly 17, 2015

    Can you please send through the information on the RBA via email?
    I’m doing a school Economic assignment on the RBA and financial markets

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaJuly 17, 2015Staff

      Hi Oli,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      I’ve emailed you with some information regarding the findings from our monthly RBA survey.

      Please note that on this page you can sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates.

      Thanks,
      Belinda

  10. Default Gravatar
    yazminJuly 7, 2015

    Hi,

    I was just wondering if I could have information regarding how interests rates will unfold over the next year. In particular, if the current interest rates will be appropriate for the economic conditions in Australia.

    Thank you
    Yazmin

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaJuly 8, 2015Staff

      Hi Yazmin,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      Firstly, I’d like to point out that finder.com.au is an online comparison and general information service so we’re not in a position to forecast interest rates.

      However, on this page you can sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates which you might find useful.

      Thanks,
      Belinda

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