RBA Cash Rate

Expert analysis on the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate decisions

hold

0.75%

Cash rate cut

The RBA cut the cash rate to 0.75% on 1 October 2019

Finder surveys over 40 economists and property experts every month to evaluate the future of the RBA's cash rate decision. Experts also provide commentary on the current state of the property market and the Australian economy and their predictions for the cash rate's future. This page contains recent cash rate analysis and predictions for the next rate decision. We update the page with new forecasts at the end of the month and again on the first Tuesday of the month, when the board of the Reserve Bank meets to make its decision.

Skip ahead to read the latest analysis, see how the cash rate has changed over time and learn more about how the cash rate affects you.

55%of our resident rate experts

correctly predicted a cash rate cut to 0.75% on Tuesday 1 October 2019 View forecasts →

Next meeting: 2:30pm 5 November 2019

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The latest cash rate analysis from the experts

+ Open all commentary

Here are the most recent cash rate predictions and commentary from the experts in our panel.

September

N/A

October

Cut

The RBA has cited spare capacity in the labour market and low wages growth as missing ingredients for a return to trend growth in the domestic economy. Given the soft labour market outcomes recently and continued sluggish consumption growth, further easing seems likely and we see no reason for the RBA to wait until after October.

September

Hold

October

Cut

Short odds that the RBA will cut official rates below 1% for October. Most recent data clearly points to yet another cut with the jobless rate rising, retail sales falling, consumer sentiment also down and the rate cut last week by the US Fed the icing on the cake. The RBA has a plan - it hasn't worked so far so they will continue to cut rates til hopefully it does. So no use waiting for likely more bad news.

Leanne Pilkington
September

Hold

October

Cut

Housing, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, is playing an important anchor role in a broader economic sense. It will be interesting to see if the housing rebound lasts beyond the spring supply increase. But for now, with unemployment creeping up, the RBA Governor's signals that a cut is on the cards cannot be ignored. How low rates go in this cycle is the next question.

September

Hold

October

Cut

N/A

Stephen Koukoulas

+ Read Stephen's full forecast
September

Hold

October

Cut

Low inflation, weak growth, weak labour market.

September

Hold

October

Hold

No need to move again yet. Housing activity increasing and potential oil crisis in Middle East will give further reason to hold.

September

N/A

October

Hold

Too early yet to see if previous stimulus has had much action. That said October is clearly live.

September

N/A

October

Hold

The market is overwhelmingly pricing a cut because of the slight rise in unemployment in August. I don't think this will be quite enough to cut rates in October. At this stage, i think we are looking at a November cut.

John Hewson
September

Hold

October

Hold

Waiting for more relevant data.

MIchaelYardneyHeadshot100px
September

Hold

October

Cut

The worse than expected unemployment rate, the fact that the Fed cut rates and deterioration in the global economic background makes it more likely that the RBA will make a rate cut in October.

Sveta Angelopoulos

+ Read Sveta's full forecast
September

N/A

October

Hold

Reducing the cash rate may have little effect in the current economic conditions and uncertainty. The RBA may want to keep it on hold for the time being - essentially holding it in reserve for a more opportune time.

Julie Toth
September

Hold

October

Hold

No change in short term outlook, although global risk has definitely increased compared to last month.

Jeffrey Sheen
September

Hold

October

Hold

The downside risk to Australia remains how the global economy performs in the next 12 months. The RBA is likely to wait and see for a few more months.

Craig Emerson
September

Hold

October

Cut

Global interest rates are falling and the RBA won't want the Australian dollar to appreciate.

September

Hold

October

Cut

Increasing uncertainty in the global economy, ongoing signs of soft domestic activity, particularly in consumer spending, plus an upward trend in the unemployment rate all point to the case for the RBA to lower official interest rates.

Rebecca Cassells
September

Hold

October

Cut

The RBA has given a strong signal that it will make the decision to lower interest rates next week, with global rather than domestic pressures driving the decision. The lower global interest rate environment overall means that not following suit could undermine the small gains we're seeing, through a higher exchange rate. But lower interest rates can also undermine progress, sending a negative message to businesses and households and eroding savings. Getting the balance and the message right will be a challenge.

September

Hold

October

Cut

Growth remains subdued, the risks to global growth have increased, unemployment and underemployment are trending up and this will make it even harder to get wages growth and inflation up. So the RBA will need to respond with more monetary stimulus.

AlisonBoothANU
September

Hold

October

Hold

Rate changes not yet warranted.

Thieliant
September

Hold

October

Cut

The labour market is softening and the RBA needs to follow the rest of the world and lower interest rates.

Christine Williams
September

Hold

October

Hold

Employment is stabilised as is the retail sector.

Mala Raghavan
September

Hold

October

Hold

I think the RBA will hold the cash rate for another month and if the rising unemployment and weaker domestic and global economic conditions persist, then there is a high possibility for the cash rate to fall in November.

September

Hold

October

Hold

The RBA is likely to hold to see the impact of recent rate changes and also to hold back some monetary policy ability for use at the end of the year and into 2020.

Sarah Hunter
September

Hold

October

Cut

The RBA have made it clear that further cuts are on the way, and with the labour market again making no progress towards a lower unemployment rate in August they are more likely than not to go again at their October meeting.

Susan Mitchell
September

Hold

October

Cut

The minutes of the RBA September monetary policy meeting and the latest economic data, point to a cut in October. The August Labor force data revealed an increase in the unemployment rate, as well as an increase in the underemployment rate, which is now in line with its recent peak. National Accounts data released after the September monetary policy meeting revealed that the economy grew below what the RBA had forecast a month earlier.

September

Hold

October

Cut

RBA has indicated that further easing likely to be required for sustainable growth.

Peter Haller
September

Hold

October

Hold

The RBA will wait for an additional month's economic data before deciding to cut again

Nicholas gruen
September

Hold

October

Cut

It's consistent with their announcements and strategy which is to ease but try not to frighten the horses.

September

Hold

October

Cut

It's likely the RBA will cut the cash rate in October, primarily due to employment numbers not tracking in the right direction, and in light of central banks cutting globally.

Tony Makin
September

Hold

October

Cut

The US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have both recently further loosened monetary policy in the US and the Eurozone, and hence the world. The RBA is not entirely independent in the sense that to prevent the Australian dollar appreciating against the $US and euro it will soon have to follow suit. It's line ball if it's to be very soon or a little later in the year.

DavidR
September

Hold

October

Cut

A much closer call than markets are suggesting, but the latest jobs data still points to 'spare capacity ' that needs to be addressed. So a cut is likely, probably in October.

September

Hold

October

Cut

Cut in FFrate by Fed, fall in f/t jobs here, fall in ANZ job ads series.

AndrewRP

Andrew Reeve-Parker

+ Read Andrew's full forecast
September

Hold

October

Cut

Fit one more cut in before Christmas and the lack of action on the fiscal front from the Federal Government.

September

Hold

October

Hold

Too early to move yet.

Jonathan Chancellor

+ Read Jonathan's full forecast
September

Hold

October

Hold

They will still give the recent cuts time to take effect.

September

Hold

October

Hold

Waiting for effects of previous cut to come into effect.

Malcolm Wood
September

Hold

October

Cut

Sluggish growth, rising unemployment, mixed response to initial cuts and below target inflation.

Thieliant
September

Hold

October

Cut

The labour market has continued to deteriorate. And while domestic growth may have reached a trough any recovery is likely to be sluggish. What's more, Lowe mentioned in a recent speech that global interest rates had structurally declined and it would be "unhelpful if Australia unhelpful in terms of achieving both the inflation target and full employment" if Australia ignored these developments. Therefore, we expect the RBA to cut cuts at its October meeting to avoid an exchange rate appreciation and to support further progress towards its inflation and full employment targets.

Jordan Eliseo
September

Hold

October

Cut

In no particular order, weak Chinese domestic demand, a slight rise in Australian unemployment and the global easing cycle remaining in place for now.

Mathew Tiller LJ Hooker
September

N/A

October

Cut

A string a soft economic data results (GDP, unemployment and retail sales) will see the RBA reduce the official cash rate by 0.25 basis points to 0.75%, at its October board meeting. Given the muted economic response of the last two rate cuts, the RBA will continue to push its message that more fiscal stimulus is required to boost economic growth. Property markets have been one of the few beneficiaries of recent rate cuts with higher levels of buyer demand pushing prices higher, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.

September

N/A

October

Hold

The economic outlook does not justify a decrease in rates at this time.

September

N/A

October

Hold

The recent round of cuts need to work their way through the economy plus it is not clear whether any further cuts are going to have the desired effect on their own. Whilst the RBA has signalled further cuts are not off the table, if this does happen it may not be until October or November, depending in part, on the Federal Governments response to the growing call for more infrastructure spending.

Tim
September

N/A

October

Cut

Whilst the most recent jobs growth was a positive read, the continued increase in participation saw the unemployment rate rise against the RBA targets. This perceived ongoing capacity and therefore weak outlook for inflation drives the view why we see the RBA to continue their easing cycle at the upcoming meeting.

September

Hold

October

Hold

RBA is likely to continue to hold unless international or local data suggest deterioration in growth or weakening labour market outcomes.

Holden_Richard 1
September

Hold

October

Hold

They need to cut in Oct or Nov but will probably want to see more data on the tax cut and house prices before acting.

September

Hold

October

Hold

The RBA is reluctant to drive the cash rate to its lower bound. Dr Lowe will resist pressure from the Federal government to cut rates on the inflation outlook alone. The RBA will cut rates if the labour market or growth outlook deteriorate.

When will we see the bottom of the rate cycle?

When will we see the bottom of the rate cycle?

Most of the experts we surveyed think the RBA will cut the cash rate as low as 0.50%. But a few predict even lower.

Watch our latest Australian property market update

How has the cash rate changed over time?

The graph above shows the movement in the official cash rate target. A lower cash rate reduces the cost of borrowing money so more people are encouraged to borrow - stimulating the economy. Higher interest rates tend to encourage spending. This is how a rise or fall in rates affects the level of supply and demand and therefore the level of inflation - which the RBA wants to keep in the target range of 2%-3%.

What is the official cash rate and who sets it?

Once a month, the RBA board meets to decide whether to raise the cash rate, lower it or keep it the same. Their decision will be influenced by a wide range of factors including inflation, the performance of the Aussie dollar, the housing market, Australia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and levels of consumer confidence. The board will assess all of these factors in relation to the RBA's goals and objectives before reaching a consensus on what to do with the official cash rate.

The RBA's monetary policy aims to achieve three key objectives which are set out in the Reserve Bank Act 1959:

  • The stability of the currency of Australia;
  • The maintenance of full employment in Australia; and
  • The economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia.

In order to reach those objectives, the RBA sets an inflation target of 2-3% over the medium term. In other words, the RBA wants the Consumer Price Index (CPI, based on the average prices for a range of common goods and services) to increase by between 2 and 3 per cent each year.

The bank can control inflation by making adjustments to the official cash rate. For example, if inflation rises above the target rate it means that Australians are spending their money too freely and prices are increasing too rapidly. But if the RBA raises interest rates to make it more expensive to borrow money, the economy will settle and price increases will slow down. Conversely, the RBA will drop interest rates if inflation is too low and the economy is stagnating, encouraging more Australians to spend more money and stimulate economic growth.

How the cash rate can impact your finances

See how the cash rate changes can affect your savings, term deposits, home loans and what you can do about it.

If the rate rises

Find an account which offers the same features and fees but with a better rate.

If the rate gets cut

Consider comparing a competitive term deposit rate so your interest earnings don't suffer.

If the rate holds

Carry out a quick comparison to make sure you're getting the best return on your money, see what promotions banks are offering.

Banks and other lenders all over the country use the RBA's official cash rate as the benchmark for the rates they offer on their variable rate home loans and other financial products. You may have seen or heard news stories following a rate change announcement by the RBA as economists predict when the banks will pass the RBA's change on to their customers.
If the rate rises

Ask your lender for a rate discount so that if rates do rise you won't be worse off, or alternatively, compare other variable or even fixed rate home loans to find a better deal.

If the rate gets cut

See how your lender responds to the cut. If they don't pass on the full rate cut, ask for a rate discount, and if you're still not happy start comparing what other deals are in the market. Some lenders have been known to pass on more than the official rate cut after an RBA announcement!

If the rate holds

Compare other variable rate home loans to make sure you're still getting the best deal. If rates are tipped to rise in the near future you may also want to compare fixed rates.

If the rate rises

Your rate won't rise as you locked it in, so you can relax a little. If your fixed rate is soon to end, start comparing what deals are being offered so you don't find yourself scrambling to lock in another rate.

If the rate gets cut

If you feel your home loan is no longer competitive, you might want to obtain a quote from your lender to find out possible exit costs. If this figure is reasonable, you might want to consider comparing variable home loans. Use our switching costs calculator to see if you'd save.

If the rate holds

Because your rate is fixed for an agreed period of time, a decision by the RBA to hold won't have as much of an effect on you depending on how long you still have to go in your fixed term. As mentioned above, you might still want to monitor the other deals in the market to keep informed.

If the rate rises

If rates rise, savings accounts rates could be increased as well. If this happens, you might want to compare the rates of high interest savings accounts. Remember that most term deposits have interest penalties if you withdraw your funds early, so keep this in mind.

If the rate gets cut

Your rate won't change because it's locked in, but if you're nearing the end of your term start comparing both high interest savings accounts and term deposits to find a good deal.

If the rate holds

Compare accounts and ensure you're aware of what's being offered in the market.

Check out Finder's RBA survey press releases

RBA news and announcements

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46 Responses

  1. Default Gravatar
    octoJune 18, 2018

    how long can AUD interest rate remain Low…..?

    how soon will the AUD follow the US FED Rate Hike…….?

    thank you

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      NikkiJune 20, 2018Staff

      Hi Octo!

      Thanks for getting in touch!

      To know more information on your questions, you can fill in your email address in the box provided and you’ll be updated on RBA’s decisions on the official cash rate target.

      While we provide you with general information, please know that we don’t stand as a representation for RBA or any company featured on our site.

      Hope that clarifies!

      Cheers,
      Nikki

  2. Default Gravatar
    TaneeshaMay 24, 2018

    Do you think the cash rate will stay the same at the June RBA meeting?

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      JoshuaMay 24, 2018Staff

      Hi Taneesha,

      Thanks for getting in touch with finder. I hope all is well for you. :)

      Unfortunately, we are not in the best place to make a prediction. However, you might get an idea whether the RBA cash rate will rise or fall by looking at the factors that affect it. These factors may include:

      – Household debt
      – Inflation
      – Wage growth
      – Consumer Confidence Index
      – Unemployment

      I hope this helps. Should you have further questions, please don’t hesitate to reach us out again.

      Have a wonderful day!

      Cheers,
      Joshua

  3. Default Gravatar
    BrookMay 5, 2018

    What do you think that how the international economic condition influence the cash rate?

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      JeniMay 6, 2018Staff

      Hi Brook,

      Thank you for getting in touch with finder.

      This is nice question. Domestic financial conditions remain expansionary. There has been some tightening in short-term
      money markets, which has flowed through to a small increase in funding costs for a range of financial institutions and businesses. However, borrowing rates remain low for households and businesses. Growth in housing credit has eased since mid last year, particularly for credit extended to investors, while growth in business debt has remained moderate. The Australian dollar remains within its narrow range of the past two years. Financial market prices suggest that the cash rate is expected to remain unchanged this year and to increase around mid 2019. If you are eager to learn more about the domestic financial condition according to RBA, please check out this link.

      I hope this helps.

      Have a great day!

      Cheers,
      Jeni

  4. Default Gravatar
    RobJune 11, 2017

    What do you think will be the next move for RBA on cash rate and when?

    Thank you!

    • Default Gravatar
      JonathanJune 11, 2017

      Hi Rob!

      Thanks for the comment.

      As of the moment, most of resident rate experts predict that rates will be the same. The cash rate target is released on the first Tuesday of every month except January.

      You can follow the updated forecast right here.

      Hope this helps.

      Cheers,
      Jonathan

    • Default Gravatar
      RobJune 11, 2017

      Thanks Jonathan, I meant in the longer term, 6-12 months.

    • Default Gravatar
      JonathanJune 11, 2017

      Hi Rob!

      We appreciate your follow-up.

      Currently, there are multiple factors that need to be considered and due to the volatility of these factors, it is a bit hard to conclude whether they’ll leave the rates unchanged for the next few months or not.

      If you have further inquiries, you may contact:

      Media and Communications
      Secretary’s Department
      Reserve Bank of Australia
      SYDNEY
      Phone: +61 2 9551 9720
      Fax: +61 2 9551 8033
      Email: rbainfo@rba.gov.au

      Hope this helps.

      Cheers,
      Jonathan

  5. Default Gravatar
    JulieSeptember 1, 2016

    When do you think the RBA will start raising rates?

    • Default Gravatar
      JodieSeptember 7, 2016

      Hi Julie,

      Thank you for contacting finder.com.au we are a financial comparison website and general information service.

      It is hard to predict the movement of the cash rate as it is based on a multitude of factors that are continually changing however 7 out of the 38 experts we surveyed in our latest RBA survey for September 2016 said they predict it will start going up in July 2017 or beyond.

      Regards
      Jodie

  6. Default Gravatar
    EricFebruary 25, 2016

    Hi Belinda

    Appreciate if you would also send me informations regarding findings of monthly RBA survey.

    Regards
    Eric

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaFebruary 26, 2016Staff

      Hi Eric,

      Thanks for getting in touch.

      On this page, you can view the RBA Cash Rate Target Announcements for each month from February 2015 until February 2016. You can also view the commentary of our resident rate experts in the lead up to each Board meeting which occurs on the first Tuesday of every month (except January).

      Please feel free to sign up to receive our detailed RBA cash rate updates by completing the form provided above.

      Regards,
      Belinda

  7. Default Gravatar
    SyedDecember 8, 2015

    Hi,
    My new house is ready now and wondering what is the best time to sell, should I put my house in the market now or January or wait for the February. I am not committed any where so I can wait.

    Your advise needed.

    Thanks

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaDecember 9, 2015Staff

      Hi Syed,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      As finder.com.au is an online comparison service so we are not licensed to give you personal advice regarding the best time to sell your property.

      You can read our guide here about considerations when selling your house.

      All the best,
      Belinda

  8. Default Gravatar
    loooooolAugust 16, 2015

    hello.
    i wonder if i could receive some information regarding not only the latest current economic situation, but also cash rate movements over the year.

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaAugust 17, 2015Staff

      Hi Dongho,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      Above on this page you can view the ‘Reserve Bank monthly announcements’ to read about the cash rate movements and monetary policy decisions that have occurred over the course of this year. You can also sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates by filling in the form provided above.

      In regards to the current economic situation, finder.com.au is an online comparative website and we can’t comment on the activity of the broader Australian economy.

      Thanks,
      Belinda

  9. Default Gravatar
    OliJuly 17, 2015

    Can you please send through the information on the RBA via email?
    I’m doing a school Economic assignment on the RBA and financial markets

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaJuly 17, 2015Staff

      Hi Oli,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      I’ve emailed you with some information regarding the findings from our monthly RBA survey.

      Please note that on this page you can sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates.

      Thanks,
      Belinda

  10. Default Gravatar
    yazminJuly 7, 2015

    Hi,

    I was just wondering if I could have information regarding how interests rates will unfold over the next year. In particular, if the current interest rates will be appropriate for the economic conditions in Australia.

    Thank you
    Yazmin

    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      BelindaJuly 8, 2015Staff

      Hi Yazmin,

      Thanks for your enquiry.

      Firstly, I’d like to point out that finder.com.au is an online comparison and general information service so we’re not in a position to forecast interest rates.

      However, on this page you can sign up to receive our RBA cash rate updates which you might find useful.

      Thanks,
      Belinda

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