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RBA cash rate

Check the current RBA cash rate, read interest rate forecasts from 40+ experts and find out the chances of a rate cut or rise in the near future.

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1.35%

CASH RATE RAISE

RBA decision made 05 July 2022
Avatar
Richard Whitten
Updated . What changed?
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  • 93% of our experts correctly predicted that the RBA would increase the cash rate at its meeting on 05 July 2022.
  • The official cash rate is currently at 1.35%.
Next rate meeting: The board of the Reserve Bank meets again on 02 August 2022 to decide the future of the cash rate.

Finder surveys over 40 economists and property experts every month to forecast the RBA's next cash rate decision. Experts also provide commentary on the current state of the property market and the Australian economy. We update the page with new forecasts at the end of the month and again on the first Tuesday of the month, when the board of the Reserve Bank meets to make its decision.

The RBA sets the official cash rate. This affects interest rates on home loans, savings accounts and other financial products. Rate cuts or increases have a big effect on borrowing costs and the Australian economy. The bank's board meets every month (except January) to decide the future of the cash rate.

On this page you can see our panel of experts and their predictions on future rate cuts or increases.

By signing up, you agree to the finder.com.au Privacy & Cookies Policy and Terms of Use, Disclaimer & Privacy Policy

The latest cash rate analysis from the experts

Here are the most recent cash rate predictions and commentary from the experts in our panel for the July 2022 cash rate decision.

Shane Oliver

+ Read Shane Oliver's full forecast

June
RAISE
July
RAISE
The cash rate at 0.85% remains too low for an economy with a 3.9% unemployment rate and inflation on its way to 7% by year end. The RBA needs to continue raising rates for now to underline its commitment to returning inflation to its 2-3% target range and ensuring that inflation expectations remain low.

Geoffrey Kingston

+ Read Geoffrey Kingston's full forecast

June
RAISE
July
RAISE
RBA is finally biting the bullet

Michael Yardney

+ Read Michael Yardney's full forecast

June
RAISE
July
RAISE
The RBA is now "laser focused" on bringing inflation under control.

Nicholas Gruen

+ Read Nicholas Gruen's full forecast

June
HOLD
July
RAISE
The RBA has been signalling its readiness to tackle inflation. Given the indebtedness of Australian households, it will be a difficult tightrope to walk.

Saul Eslake

+ Read Saul Eslake's full forecast

June
RAISE
July
RAISE
My view reflects the RBA's heightened sense of urgency in getting its cash rate to at least 2.5%, and possibly higher, in order to give effect to its stated determination to get inflation down to its 2-3% target range.

Noel Whittaker

+ Read Noel Whittaker's full forecast

June
RAISE
July
RAISE
The reserve bank have been shouting it from the rooftops.

David Robertson

+ Read David Robertson's full forecast

June
RAISE
July
RAISE
The RBA has now committed to front loading rate hikes in response to the global inflation shock, so should increase rates by another 50 basis points in July. This will continue the path to a neutral cash rate of around 2.5 % by November, before pausing to assess the impact on demand and on inflation.

Dr Craig Emerson

+ Read Dr Craig Emerson's full forecast

June
RAISE
July
RAISE
The RBA Governor has publicly stated so.

Rich Harvey

+ Read Rich Harvey's full forecast

June
HOLD
July
HOLD
RBA is now committed to raising the cash rate to counter very strong inflation pressure, but will not be raising rates in rapid succession - they will take a cautious approach.

Jonathan Chancellor

+ Read Jonathan Chancellor's full forecast

June
RAISE
July
RAISE
They need to act decisively, not dawdle in their pursuit of increased rates so they then have the option to re-use the rate lever to avoid any recession

Dale Gillham

+ Read Dale Gillham's full forecast

June
HOLD
July
N/A
The 50 basis point rise in June was quite a shock to everyone and so I suspect the RBA will wait to see what effect it has prior to issuing any more rises.

Nicholas Frappell

+ Read Nicholas Frappell's full forecast

June
RAISE
July
RAISE
Inflationary pressures remain in place and most indicators suggest that the economy remains in decent shape at this point in time.

Tim Nelson

+ Read Tim Nelson's full forecast

June
HOLD
July
RAISE
Continued tightening to address rising inflation.

Brodie Haupt

+ Read Brodie Haupt's full forecast

June
HOLD
July
RAISE
With continued uncertainty and rising pressure from inflation, I think it is likely there will be another rate rise this month.

Mathew Tiller

+ Read Mathew Tiller's full forecast

June
RAISE
July
RAISE
The RBA is expected to continue to increase the cash rate until the strong inflationary pressures begin to subside. As such, I expect the RBA will lift rates multiple times over the remainder of 2022.

Leanne Pilkington

+ Read Leanne Pilkington's full forecast

June
RAISE
July
RAISE
We all know further rate increases are coming. While the recent hikes have certainly impacted consumer sentiment, we believe a more modest increase is warranted this time around to provide time to understand the full economic impact of the May and June increases.

Angela Jackson

+ Read Angela Jackson's full forecast

June
RAISE
July
RAISE
Clear furthering tightening requires given capacity constraints in labour market and general price rises now evident across economy.

David Zammit

+ Read David Zammit's full forecast

June
RAISE
July
RAISE
I expect the Reserve Bank to again raise the cash rate in July as it continues measures to normalise the cash rate and curb inflation. As home loan interest rates climb, borrowers are seeking better deals on their home loan, with Mortgage Choice home loan submission data showing a pick-up in refinancing activity during May.

Jakob Madsen

+ Read Jakob Madsen's full forecast

June
RAISE
July
RAISE
Inflation too high.

Dr Andrew Wilson

+ Read Dr Andrew Wilson's full forecast

June
HOLD
July
RAISE
The RBA will likely raise rates again for June although the level of increase has become problematic given the nature of the data released in recent weeks is likely to challenge the Banks assumptions. Predictably disappointing wages data, low jobs growth, another fall in the participation rate, another sharp decline in the savings rate, falling disposable income levels and a moderate GDP performance will be food for thought for the RBA who are hoping to avoid a hard landing in its attempt to curb inflation. Recessionary clouds are already gathering in other advanced economies that increased rates higher and earlier than Australia.

Stephen Halmarick

+ Read Stephen Halmarick's full forecast

June
RAISE
July
RAISE
A global monetary policy tightening cycle is well underway.

Cameron Kusher

+ Read Cameron Kusher's full forecast

June
RAISE
July
RAISE
Inflation is surging and the RBA have signaled that they are going to do whatever they can to reduce it, which means lifting the cash rate.

Tim Reardon

+ Read Tim Reardon's full forecast

June
HOLD
July
N/A
The cash rate remains expansionary and unemployment remains exceptionally low.

Peter Munckton

+ Read Peter Munckton's full forecast

June
N/A
July
RAISE
Inflation is too high.

Peter Boehm

+ Read Peter Boehm's full forecast

June
RAISE
July
RAISE
The RBA has left itself no alternative but to increase the cash rate, and to increase it sharply. I would not be surprised to see the rate above 2.5% by year end and this will create what would have an otherwise been an avoidable shock to the economy, had rates been increased earlier and by smaller increments.

Mark Brimble

+ Read Mark Brimble's full forecast

June
RAISE
July
RAISE
Inflation pressure continues to grow and the need to normalise rates is evident.

Sarah Hunter

+ Read Sarah Hunter's full forecast

June
HOLD
July
RAISE
The most recent comments from Governor Lowe and the June meeting minutes make it clear that the RBA are now proceeding with rate normalisation at a rapid pace, which suggests a further 50bps increase in the July meeting.

Harry Murphy Cruise

+ Read Harry Murphy Cruise's full forecast

June
RAISE
July
RAISE
The RBA has upped the ante on inflation and is working overtime to make up lost ground. But it’s not just actual prices rises that are cause for concern. Phil Lowe knows he only has a small window to tame expectations. And that will see the Board again go hard in July.

Cameron Murray

+ Read Cameron Murray's full forecast

June
N/A
July
RAISE
There is a bigger global context here. Other central banks are hiking consistently. Australia has similar inflation pressures. So the RBA will act in way that is consistent with central banking norms.

Azeem Sheriff

+ Read Azeem Sheriff's full forecast

June
N/A
July
RAISE
CPI released in July and October 2022, so expecting RBA to react to CPI numbers and adjust rates accordingly in July, August, September, November & December meetings to bring cash rate to 2.35%. RBA will monitor for Q1 '23 then when next CPI figures release in Apr for Q1, RBA will react again in May's meeting for next hike. Potentially 1 more in Q3 to bring to cash rate to 2.75%. Anything further aggressive tightening more than 25bps could severely contract economy giving rise to fears of an AUS recession. GDP figures will also be on watch in September, December and March 23 which can significantly contribute to RBA's decision.

Sveta Angelopoulos

+ Read Sveta Angelopoulos's full forecast

June
HOLD
July
RAISE
Inflationary pressures need to be addressed. Moving quickly and sharply in the short term will send very concrete messages to markets and may avoid longer term pain down the track.

Sean Langcake

+ Read Sean Langcake's full forecast

June
HOLD
July
RAISE
The RBA have clearly signalled they are just at the beginning of their tightening phase. Slowing down to a 25 basis point rise makes little sense in light of the June hike.

Alan Oster

+ Read Alan Oster's full forecast

June
HOLD
July
RAISE
RBA still adjusting rates to slow activity and lower inflation.

Jeffrey Sheen

+ Read Jeffrey Sheen's full forecast

June
HOLD
July
RAISE
The anchor for inflation expectations needs to be re-established by the RBA demonstrating its commitment to its inflation target.

Jason Azzopardi

+ Read Jason Azzopardi's full forecast

June
HOLD
July
RAISE
Current levels are emergency levels only and combined with high inflation, there is no need for the RBA to move slowly.

How has the cash rate changed over time?

The graph below shows the movements in the official cash rate over time and is updated every month whenever the RBA announces a cut, raise or hold.

What is the official cash rate?

The Reserve Bank of Australia is the country's central bank. The RBA's monetary policy has three key objectives which are set out in the Reserve Bank Act 1959:

  • The stability of the currency of Australia.
  • The maintenance of full employment in Australia.
  • The economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia.

Setting the official cash rate is one of the bank's key tools to influence monetary policy, inflation and the broader Australian economy. The bank's board meets on the first Tuesday of every month except January to set the cash rate. The RBA will either cut, raise or hold the cash rate.

Their decision is influenced by a range of factors including inflation, the performance of the Aussie dollar, unemployment, the housing market, and Australia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

For example, if inflation rises above the target rate it means that Australians are spending their money too freely and prices are increasing too rapidly. But if the RBA raises interest rates to make it more expensive to borrow money, the economy will settle and price increases will slow down. Conversely, the RBA will drop interest rates if inflation is too low and the economy is stagnating, encouraging more Australians to spend more money and stimulate economic growth.

How the cash rate can impact your finances

The RBA can do three things with the cash rate: increase it, lower it, or hold it. The bank generally moves the cash rate in increments of 0.25%, though it did make cuts of 0.10% and 0.15% in 2020.

What does a cash rate increase mean for you?

A higher cash rate makes borrowing money more expensive. This is bad news for borrowers. But it also means interest rates on savings accounts can increase, which is good for savers.

Here's how a cash rate rise affects your finances.

  • If you have a home loan. If you have a fixed rate home loan you don't need to worry. Your rate will not rise during the fixed period. If you have a variable rate home loan your lender might increase your home loan rate in response to the RBA's decision. If this is the case, you should start comparing home loans and look for a better deal.
  • If you have money in a high interest savings account. Rate rises mean higher interest rates on savings accounts. Again, look around and see if you can find a high interest savings account with a better rate.

What does a cash rate decrease mean for you?

A lower cash rate means borrowing money is cheaper. That's good news for people with mortgages, especially variable rate home loans, which are directly affected by the cash rate (fixed rate loans, as the name implies, don't change until the fixed period ends).

Here's how a cash rate cut affects your finances.

  • If you have a home loan. If you have a variable rate loan, see how your lender responds to the cut. If your lender doesn't pass on the full rate cut, ask for a rate discount, and if you're still not happy start comparing what other deals are in the market. If you have a fixed rate loan you won't see any benefit now because your rate is fixed.
  • If you have money in a high interest savings account. Your interest rate will likely fall. You might still be able to find a better deal elsewhere. If you are hoping to generate some wealth through interest you might choose to put your money in a term deposit or an investment fund instead.

Here's an example of how a cash rate cut or rise can affect a home loan. Let's assume the following:

  • You have a variable rate home loan with a rate of 2.50% before the RBA decision.
  • Your lender passes on the RBA's raise or cut in full.
  • Your loan term is 30 years.

Let's look at some example home loans:

Cash rate rise

  • Loan amount: $450,000
  • Interest rate: 2.50%
  • Monthly repayment: $1,778
  • Rate rise: 0.25%
  • New rate: 2.75%
  • New monthly repayment: $1,837
  • Extra cost: $59 a month or $708 a year

Cash rate cut

  • Loan amount: $450,000
  • Interest rate: 2.50%
  • Monthly repayment: $1,778
  • Rate cut: -0.25%
  • New rate: 2.25%
  • New monthly repayment: $1,720
  • Saving: $58 a month or $696 a year

Check out Finder's RBA survey press releases

Pre-announcement RBA Press Releases

Post-announcement RBA Press Releases

RBA news and announcements

More guides on Finder

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48 Responses

  1. Default Gravatar
    CuteyJune 16, 2022

    When the RBA decreases the cash rate , does it mean it prints more money to increase money supply and thereby decreasing the borrowing rate. And if that is the case, does increasing the cash rate mean that the RBA has to extinguish some of the money supply thereby reducing the money available to borrow. I am assuming that RBA can’t just simply say the cash rate is this much, it has to increase/decrease money supply at the backend to make sure the cash rate stays at whatever level it wants to stay at.

    Reply
    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      RichardJune 18, 2022Staff

      Hi,

      The cash rate determines the interest rate lenders can charge when lending money to each other at short notice (also called the overnight cash rate). Lenders and banks are always moving money around to cover different investments and expenses, including funding for home loans.

      So the cash rate affects their costs, and they pass this onto borrowers. Changing the cash rate target does nothing to the amount of money in the economy. It affects the cost of borrowing and lending money.

      The RBA does in effect create money sometimes, in a process called quantitative easing. This involves purchasing bonds from investors at a favourable rate, freeing up investor cash to go elsewhere in the economy. This is different to the cash rate.

      I hope this helps.

      Regards,
      Richard

      Reply
  2. Default Gravatar
    octoJune 18, 2018

    how long can AUD interest rate remain Low…..?

    how soon will the AUD follow the US FED Rate Hike…….?

    thank you

    Reply
    • Default Gravatar
      NikkiJune 20, 2018

      Hi Octo!

      Thanks for getting in touch!

      To know more information on your questions, you can fill in your email address in the box provided and you’ll be updated on RBA’s decisions on the official cash rate target.

      While we provide you with general information, please know that we don’t stand as a representation for RBA or any company featured on our site.

      Hope that clarifies!

      Cheers,
      Nikki

      Reply
  3. Default Gravatar
    TaneeshaMay 24, 2018

    Do you think the cash rate will stay the same at the June RBA meeting?

    Reply
    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      JoshuaMay 24, 2018Staff

      Hi Taneesha,

      Thanks for getting in touch with finder. I hope all is well for you. :)

      Unfortunately, we are not in the best place to make a prediction. However, you might get an idea whether the RBA cash rate will rise or fall by looking at the factors that affect it. These factors may include:

      – Household debt
      – Inflation
      – Wage growth
      – Consumer Confidence Index
      – Unemployment

      I hope this helps. Should you have further questions, please don’t hesitate to reach us out again.

      Have a wonderful day!

      Cheers,
      Joshua

      Reply
  4. Default Gravatar
    BrookMay 5, 2018

    What do you think that how the international economic condition influence the cash rate?

    Reply
    • Avatarfinder Customer Care
      JeniMay 6, 2018Staff

      Hi Brook,

      Thank you for getting in touch with Finder.

      This is a nice question. Domestic financial conditions remain expansionary. There has been some tightening in short-term
      money markets, which has flowed through to a small increase in funding costs for a range of financial institutions and businesses. However, borrowing rates remain low for households and businesses. Growth in housing credit has eased since mid last year, particularly for credit extended to investors, while growth in business debt has remained moderate. The Australian dollar remains within its narrow range of the past two years. Financial market prices suggest that the cash rate is expected to remain unchanged this year and to increase around mid 2019. If you are eager to learn more about the domestic financial condition according to RBA, refer to the Domestic Economic Conditions file.

      I hope this helps.

      Have a great day!

      Cheers,
      Jeni

      Reply
  5. Default Gravatar
    RobJune 11, 2017

    What do you think will be the next move for RBA on cash rate and when?

    Thank you!

    Reply
    • Default Gravatar
      JonathanJune 11, 2017

      Hi Rob!

      Thanks for the comment.

      As of the moment, most of resident rate experts predict that rates will be the same. The cash rate target is released on the first Tuesday of every month except January.

      You can follow the updated RBA forecast through our website.

      Hope this helps.

      Cheers,
      Jonathan

      Reply
    • Default Gravatar
      RobJune 11, 2017

      Thanks Jonathan, I meant in the longer term, 6-12 months.

      Reply
    • Default Gravatar
      JonathanJune 11, 2017

      Hi Rob!

      We appreciate your follow-up.

      Currently, there are multiple factors that need to be considered and due to the volatility of these factors, it is a bit hard to conclude whether they’ll leave the rates unchanged for the next few months or not.

      If you have further inquiries, you may contact:

      Media and Communications
      Secretary’s Department
      Reserve Bank of Australia
      SYDNEY
      Phone: +61 2 9551 9720
      Fax: +61 2 9551 8033
      Email: rbainfo@rba.gov.au

      Hope this helps.

      Cheers,
      Jonathan

      Reply
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