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A recession is a sustained period of reduced economic output and higher unemployment. As of August 2023, 62% of us believe Australia will enter a recession in the next 12 months according to Finder data.
This guide will take you through 6 ways to prepare and manage your finances for an economic downturn.
Snapshot: 6 ways to manage money in a recession
Revise your budget
Focus on your debt
Build up your emergency savings
Reduce your housing costs
Start investing, or improve your strategy
Sort out your superannuation
1. Revise your budget
The economic situation changing around you is a good prompt to revise your budget. Is your income the same, and are there any opportunities for you to increase it? Can you cut back on any expenses or spending? And is your allowance for expenses like groceries still the same considering increased inflation?
Go through your budget line by line and see what needs to change. If you don't have a budget or aren't sure where to start to revise yours, take a look at our full guide to budgeting.
2. Focus on paying down your debt
Paying down debt is vital during a recession. There's a higher chance of being made redundant or having your hours cut, which could make it really difficult to meet your repayments.
Prioritise some debts over others
Look at your unsecured debts (credit cards and personal loans) and find out which debts are costing you the most. It may be those with the highest interest rate or those with the highest amount left to repay.
You can use these numbers to choose a debt repayment strategy.
Consider a balance transfer or debt consolidation
A balance transfer credit card allows you to transfer your debt over to a new card with a low or even 0% interest rate for a set period of time. Using a balance transfer credit card could save you money on interest and also help repay your debt more quickly.
If you have several personal loans, you could consider combining these into one with a debt consolidation loan. This means you're not paying multiple sets of loan management fees. Some of these loans let you consolidate credit card debts with loan debts, too.
3. Build up your emergency savings
Thinking about your savings when expenses are sky-high can be tricky, but it's really important to have cash savings on hand during a recession. It's especially important if you work casually or are expecting your expenses to increase soon, for example, you're due to have a baby or moving house.
As a general rule, it's a good idea to build up an emergency savings fund of 3-6 months' worth of living expenses.
Living expenses include
Living expenses don't include
Electricity, gas, internet and phone bills
Mortgage repayments or rent
Health insurance payments, regular prescriptions and medication
Groceries
School fees, uniforms and supplies
Public transport costs, petrol and car registration
Eating out and takeaway foods
Gym memberships or personal training (unless for medical/rehab purposes)
Alcohol
Entertainment costs like Netflix, Stan, Spotify or movie tickets
Holidays and travel
Once you start building up your emergency savings, you can consider an account to put them in to earn interest and make your money go further:
High interest savings account. Savings accounts pay interest on your balance and offer bonus interest when you can deposit a certain amount each month as an incentive to save. One benefit of a savings account is that you can access the money instantly if needed.
Term deposits.Term deposits are a type of locked savings account. The benefit of term deposits is they pay a fixed interest rate that won't change for the life of the term. However, you can't access your money instantly if needed.
Deposits up to $250,000 in savings accounts and term deposits with Australian banks are protected by the government, so if something were to happen to the bank (which is unlikely), your deposit would be safe. This is part of the Australian Government Guarantee Scheme.
3. Reduce your housing costs
A large proportion of our expenses are spent on housing in Australia. Finder data reveals that 42% of Australians said housing costs were a source of stress in March 2023 compared to 34% in March 2022.
If you rent
Renters have a trickier time of reducing their housing costs because moving doesn't always guarantee cheaper rent, and then there are moving costs to consider.
However, there are still savings to be had. Look into your energy provider and compare your options to see if there are any cheaper options available. You can also compare other utility providers such as your internet.
Then there are the more lucrative but life-impacting options, such as renting out one of your spare rooms. If you own your car you can also consider renting that out on days you aren't using it, and if you have a parking spot you aren't using, you can consider renting that out as well.
If you have a mortgage
Refinancing to a lower interest rate on your mortgage can save you money without too much effort on your part. While rates are quite high right now (the average fixed interest rate is 6.55% p.a. as of November 2023) you still may get a better deal than you're currently on or get a home loan with features that better suit you.
Do you have an offset account?
One example is offset accounts. An offset account functions like a bank account, but it's attached to a mortgage and the money earns no interest. Instead, the money offsets your loan principal (the amount you owe your lender).
This means your interest charges are reduced. You still repay the same amount every month or fortnight, but more of the money goes toward your principal and less on interest. This means you repay the loan faster and pay less interest in the end.
And because the money is still sitting in a bank account, you can pull it out and spend it later if you need to. It's the ultimate rainy day fund: reduce your interest costs now and still have money to hand if you need it.
4. How to invest during a recession
It's important to have an investment strategy that can handle a downturn so you avoid making last-minute, panic-driven decisions that could end up costing you.
Shares
There are 2 questions you're likely to ask yourself during a recession: should you sell, and should you invest more to bolster your portfolio?
Here's how to navigate your investment decisions.
Should you sell?
Will you need the cash? If you need the cash in a recession (for example if you have been made redundant and you don't have an emergency savings buffer), you could consider selling some of your shares, even though you could be taking a loss. However, selling your shares when the price falls locks in that loss of capital, so it could be better to focus on building up your emergency savings first before you resort to selling any of your stocks.
Can you manage without the cash? If you don't think you'll need the money any time soon, you could consider holding your investments and riding out the volatility. It could get worse before it gets better and it may take several years, but historically the stock market tends to go up over the long term.
Are you about to retire? If you're close to retirement you won't have as much time left to ride out the volatility and wait for the share market to recover like you would if you were in your 30s or 40s. In preparation, you could consider selling some of your positions before their price drops too much, and moving the money into a cash product instead. But remember, depending on your age, you could be in retirement for another 20 years or even longer. It's highly likely your stocks will recover in this time, and keeping some of your money invested in growth assets like shares will help your retirement savings last as long as possible.
Remember, like any global economic event, there are winners and losers in a recession and not all stocks will go down. So whether you sell or not will also depend on what you currently have in your portfolio.
Should you buy more shares?
During a recession, we usually see heavy falls in the stock market as investors sell their shares and move their money into low-risk cash products. However, some stocks won't be hit as hard and some will even rise in value. But one thing is certain: a recession presents some good buying opportunities for those who are prepared to do so.
Some shares that could go up in a recession include the following:
Consumer staples. Companies like grocery stores might not be as greatly impacted as other sectors since consumers still need to buy day-to-day items.
Healthcare. If the recession is brought on by a pandemic, we'll likely see some healthcare, medical research and biotech stocks rising.
Gold companies. Gold is a safe-haven asset that investors flock to in times of economic uncertainty, so in the lead up to and during a recession, we usually see the price of gold jump up.
Hedged ETFs. Some ETFs track market volatility and actually rise as the market falls and fall as the market rises. One example is BetaShares' BEAR ETF (BEAR:ASX).
Tips to prepare your investment portfolio for a recession
Here are some tips to help you prepare and manage your investments before and during a recession.
Focus on diversification. As outlined above, while some investments will fall in value, others will outperform in a recession (and some will remain relatively flat or stable). One of the best ways to protect your portfolio from volatility is by not having all your eggs in one basket. Instead of selling your shares, consider holding your shares and instead buying some other assets that are likely to go up to minimise your overall losses.
Adopt a long-term mindset. Unless you're an active day trader, keep a long-term mindset for your portfolio. Yes, the market will fall from time to time, but it will almost certainly pick back up again and rise over the long term. The short-term volatility might be uncomfortable, but by focusing less on the day-to-day price movements, you'll be able to keep a level head, remain calm and stick to your course.
Create a shopping list of stocks to buy. When the market is falling and the economy is slowing, it can seem counterintuitive to invest more money into the share market. But during a recession, you'll find plenty of good-quality stocks trading for a significant discount, which presents some great buying opportunities. As part of your preparation for a recession, put some money aside and create a shopping list of what you want to buy so that when the price is right, you can act quickly. If you don't already have one, open an online share trading account so you're ready to trade when there's a good opportunity.
Stay informed, but ignore the hype. When the market is moving, whether that's falling sharply or rising quickly, there's going to be lots of hype. Everyone will have an opinion on what to buy and what to sell as well as on when the right time to buy will be. Remember, timing the market is a risky strategy that can be very costly, and at the end of the day, no one really knows for sure what the market will do next.
What about investing in property?
Collapsing stock prices and falling interest rates are making property look pretty attractive, right? There's certainly something reassuring about investing in brick-and-mortar. Property might not be the highest-yielding investment, but it's typically a long-term game and relatively stable. Property is less exposed to short-term economic contraction and pandemics or disasters (unless you buy in an area that's disaster-prone).
The truth is though that no investment is ever guaranteed. And if you do decide that now's the time to invest in property, make sure you consider the following:
Invest for the long term. It is possible to "flip" a property for a short-term gain, but not everyone is able to pull this off and it's harder to do in a recession. Take your time, do your research and invest in the right property in the right location. Consider factors like demand, population growth, future infrastructure, proximity to shops and schools and overall desirability.
Buy in a "recession-proof" area. Imagine you'd bought an investment property in a mining town at the height of Australia's last mining boom. Expensive. And then all of a sudden, the boom's over and you're paying off an expensive property you can't find tenants for in a town with few jobs. Investing in towns or regions dependent on a single industry is very unwise during a recession. This is true for mining towns and holiday destinations, for instance.
Find the right loan. Australian investors can use their investment costs to minimise their tax bills. Finding the right type of investment loan is a key part of this strategy. And whatever strategy you go for, getting a lower interest rate on the loan will save you even more.
Don't try and time the market. Every investor wants a good deal, but buy low and sell high is for stocks, not property. Buy quality and hold for the long term is the most common property strategy.
5. What to do with your superannuation
It's not often as front of mind as our cash, personal investments and property, but your super fund is impacted by a recession too. Your superannuation is a big investment portfolio that's made up of a bunch of different assets, most notably shares (unless you've got a self managed super fund that's invested mostly in property).
Importantly, your super could be one of the biggest assets you have by the time you retire.
The first thing to check is whether you have multiple super funds. If you do, you'll be paying multiple sets of fees which will eat a big hole into your retirement savings, so you should consolidate them. If you've just got the one super fund, it's still worthwhile comparing your fund with other options to make sure you're getting a good deal. Can you save on fees and costs by switching to another super fund?
If you're happy with your current super fund and don't need to consolidate multiple accounts, the strategy you take with your super while preparing for a recession will depend on your age, your risk tolerance and your personal circumstances.
Need more help?
Taking control of your finances is daunting at the best of times. When facing a recession, it's even scarier. We hope that the information on this page helps you save money on your financial products and helps you make some good decisions.
If you need more help, the tables below contain competitive products, ranging from mortgages to savings accounts to super funds. And if you need more guidance on saving money, managing debt or need the services of a counsellor, check out some of these links.
If you are in financial distress, please read our emergency finance help information or call the National Debt Helpline on 1800 007 007.
We update our data regularly, but information can change between updates. Confirm details with the provider you're interested in before making a decision.
We update our data regularly, but information can change between updates. Confirm details with the provider you're interested in before making a decision.
We update our data regularly, but information can change between updates. Confirm details with the provider you're interested in before making a decision.
Important: The standard brokerage fee displayed is the trade cost for new customers to purchase $1,000 of either Australian or US shares. Where a platform charges different fees for both US and Australian shares we show the lower of the two. Where both CHESS sponsored and custodian shares are offered, we display the cheapest option.
Elizabeth Barry is the lead editor for Finder. She has over 10 years' experience writing about a range of topics with a focus on personal finance. You’ll find her writing and commentary in a range of publications and media including Seven News, the ABC, MSN, the Irish Times and Singapore Business Review.
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