Bitcoin reaching US$100,000 now looks impossible – for this year at least

Posted: 20 December 2021 4:23 pm
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PlanB, creator of the popular S2F model, conceded that it would take a miracle for BTC to scale up to AUD$140,000 (US$100,000) by the end of 2021.

  • Bitcoin's annual profit yield currently stands at 94.5%.
  • Over the past week, a whopping AUD$2.5 trillion has been drained from traditional markets.
  • Some experts believe BTC may be able to resume its bullish ascent after the turn of the new year.

Bitcoin's price woes continue to confound investors across the globe, with the world's largest cryptocurrency by total market capitalisation continuing to stay range bound between AUD$64,500 and $68,500 over the course of the last 7 days. As a result, the flagship cryptocurrency is currently showcasing monthly losses of 20.5%. At press time, BTC is trading at a price point of AUD$65,455.

Bitcoin is currently testing its yearly key moving average (MA) metric, suggesting that the digital asset will need a near Christmas miracle to surge and reach a target of US$100,000 which many experts had predicted the cryptocurrency to achieve by the turn of the new year.

As per Philip Swift, the man behind on-chain analytical data resource centre Look Into Bitcoin, BTC's 1-year MA has been an extremely important historical indicator of the currency's "bull/bear pivot levels". The fact that BTC is sitting on the trend line currently has investors a little worried but Swift is confident that the cryptocurrency will be able to bounce from its current levels and resume on a bullish trajectory as we head into the future.

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Strong close out for 2021 seems unlikely

Even if Bitcoin does experience a rally over the coming few days, it will have to cover an incredible amount of ground to achieve a year-end closing price that is in line with previous bullish expectations. In fact, even the creator of the wildly popular stock-to-flow model PlanB acknowledged recently that he does not see Bitcoin hitting his previously held target of US$100,000 by the start of 2022, adding:

"Bitcoin needs a small miracle for a 100K Christmas. Will I ditch the S2F model if this does not happen? Nah, I actually like being at the lower bands. In fact I published the model at the lower bands in March 2019 with BTC below 4K."

Furthermore, the ongoing bearish mood has also had a major impact on many traditional sectors, with the stock and commodities market also showcasing no signs of the classic "Santa rally" that is usually witnessed around this time of the year.

Prominent market analyst Holger Zschaepitz pointed out that over the past week the global stock landscape has been depleted of a whopping AUD$2.5 trillion (approximately US$1.8 trillion), a development that seems to have come in line with the Federal Reserve's imminent plans to taper its stimulus policies in the near-to-mid future.

COVID fears run amuck again

Even though stocks continue to hold a total market capitalisation of US$118 trillion, which is estimated to be worth 140% of the world's cumulative GDP, experts believe that the general outlook for the cryptocurrency and traditional markets continue to remain bleak, especially as rising cases of the Omicron variant continue to spark fresh economic shutdowns across the globe.

Interested in cryptocurrency? Learn more about the basics with our beginner's guide to Bitcoin, dive deeper by learning about Ethereum and see what blockchain can do with our simple guide to DeFi.


Disclosure: The author owns a range of cryptocurrencies at the time of writing

Disclaimer: This information should not be interpreted as an endorsement of cryptocurrency or any specific provider, service or offering. It is not a recommendation to trade. Cryptocurrencies are speculative, complex and involve significant risks – they are highly volatile and sensitive to secondary activity. Performance is unpredictable and past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Consider your own circumstances, and obtain your own advice, before relying on this information. You should also verify the nature of any product or service (including its legal status and relevant regulatory requirements) and consult the relevant Regulators' websites before making any decision. Finder, or the author, may have holdings in the cryptocurrencies discussed.

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