Bitcoin price tightens and poises for a break one way or the other
The general consensus is that Bitcoin prices are preparing for a move, but the direction remains unclear.
Bitcoin has been loitering in the $11,000 range over the last week, despite the best efforts of analysts to hurry it on and to tell it to sod off in either direction. Instead, it planted itself right where it was and sat on a base of declining trade volumes.
But as its trading range tightens, market-watchers are increasingly expecting Bitcoin to shoot off in one direction or the other in the coming week. And it has reasons to go in either direction.
The general sentiment among some experienced traders is that a correction of some kind is needed before Bitcoin can continue on its way higher. But others warn that a minor correction will only give way to a complete plunge.
On the whole, the general mood among technical analysis-type traders is that caution is warranted, and that the week ahead will bring interesting trading times for Bitcoin one way or another.
— Big Chonis Trading😷 (@BigChonis) July 8, 2019
That said, Bitcoin hasn't made any obnoxiously sudden moves lately and is eyeing a break upwards according to some metrics. Plus, when tracking Bitcoin against the resistance set over the last few days, you could argue that Bitcoin's path of least resistance is up rather than down.
On the other hands
Technical analysis aside, more news-oriented traders are still looking forward to the launch of Bakkt's physically-settled Bitcoin futures testing on 22 July. Disregarding news of that calibre in favour of pure technical analysis would basically be admitting that the entire crypto market is irrational and nothing in it matters.
In other news-style price analyses, people are pointing at the fact that Bitcoin has historically done well in holiday periods. While this certainly doesn't discount an intervening price collapse, it also gives something for the markets to look forward to.
On the further front, Bitcoin ETFs aren't dead in the water yet despite repeated warnings not to expect too much from them. The potential for market manipulation has been consistently given as the main reason to reject them, and developments like Bakkt and a more robust system for physically-settled Bitcoin futures could go a long way towards maturing the market to the extent needed to safely allow them.
Disclosure: The author holds BNB and BTC at the time of writing.