Analysts say virus nullified halving, remain split on Bitcoin outlook
Bitcoin is social distancing from the bullish halving narrative and analysts explain why it could fall more.
When the waters receded from the global economy in recent weeks, they receded from Bitcoin as well.
It was arguably not an ideal time for Bitcoin (or anything else really).
The halving was meant to be one of the most bullish times for the coin, but now it has been all but cancelled due to coronavirus, less than two months out. Bitcoin has begun social distancing itself from the bullish halving narrative.
That's one of many findings in the newly released Finder Cryptocurrency Predictions report.
"The shrinkage in resources due to losses in the stock markets and demand for goods further depress the BTC price. The halving is the only thing keeping the price above the $5,000 threshold," said Elvira Sojli, an associate professor at the University of New South Wales.
Overall, 8 experts on the 10-person panel said recession fears would nullify the halving hype, while 2 said it was still on the cards.
It was more split on the question of where Bitcoin prices would land by 30 June.
Across all respondents, the answers averaged out to US$7,163, which is really very close to the $7,300 Bitcoin is sitting at at the time of writing (9 April).
Bitcoin prices were considerably lower at the time the survey was conducted, so you'll have to judge for yourself what the ratio of coincidence to raw predictive power here is.
The most pessimistic prediction in the survey called for $1,200 by 30 June, while the highest was $15,000.
The median forecast was $6,250.
The year-end forecast was more positive overall, calling an average of $15,499. But that's driven largely by the most ambitious forecasters in this case, two of whom predicted end-of-year Bitcoin prices of about $35,000.
Not all panelists are as optimistic. Dr. John Hawkins from the University of Canberra predicts BTC will be worth just $2,000 by year's end, calling it "a failed experiment" and "only a tool for speculators with no underlying worth".
"The virus will drag on," said Desmond Marshall, managing director at Rouge International.
"People's jobs and businesses are at peril. You can't buy bread or masks with Bitcoin. So as a currency, it couldn't work. As an investment asset, people would most likely buy precious metals or stocks that are well below their value. The market will have enough distractions to pull investors' money away."
"But a diversified portfolio is still required, and many couldn't sell Bitcoin normally now, meaning they will still hold a portion lingering."
The median year-end prediction came out at $9,000.
Read the full report for coin sentiment analyses, much more detailed insights and more details on why each expert is expecting various ups and downs.
Disclosure: The author holds BNB, BTC at the time of writing.
- SEC crackdown on Binance, Kraken – What it means for Aussie investors
- Sam Bankman-Fried found guilty – what it means for Australian FTX victims
- Bitcoin’s price soars over 10% on ETF rumours – here’s why
- New regulations for Aussie crypto exchanges: What it means for investors
- Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX trial starts tomorrow – what it means for FTX customers