Analyst: If bitcoin was going to break upwards, it already would be

Posted: 4 October 2018 12:30 pm
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Analysts say bitcoin is about to do something, but no one's entirely sure what.

Bitcoin prices have been forming a tightening wedge recently, which many analysts are describing as a sign of an impending break out in one direction or the other. The end result has been akin to the markets holding their breath while waiting for bitcoin to spike in one direction or the other.

"BTC has lacked a clear directional bias for far too long," says CoinDesk's Omkar Godbole. "As a result, a big move in either direction is overdue."

Which way?

The question now might be which way bitcoin breaks. The overall mood is pessimistic, with Godbole noting that bitcoin is running below its 50-, 100- and 200-day exponential moving average.

Others agree. Bitcoin would have already gone up if it was going to go up, says Jani Ziedins of Cracked.Market.

"Bitcoin is still struggling to break $6.8k resistance," he writes. "If buyers wanted to buy this dip, they would have jumped in already. The chronic lack of demand at these levels is a concern, and the path of least resistance remains lower."

Having said that, there's definitely someone buying.

Meanwhile, the sentiment has also shifted slightly to the bullish in the wake of the rise, with a few hundred more long positions cropping up on Bitfinex in the last couple of hours. It's still just a blip though, hardly shifting the roughly 55% short and 45% long breakdown on Bitfinex.

In short, no one knows which way bitcoin is about to go, but everyone agrees that it's about to go somewhere.

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"A trend change is still far from being confirmed in the segment," says, but "a move below the $6,275 support level could set up a test of the $6,000 level and possibly the key long-term zone near $5,850."

It might make sense that no one's jumping in right now. The overall sentiment seems to be a bit pessimistic, so someone who wants to buy the dip might have good reason to wait. Similarly, someone who wants to sell might be waiting for a clearer signal one way or another.

The markets are holding their breath right now and waiting for a clear indication one way or another.

Disclosure: At the time of writing, the author holds ETH, IOTA, ICX, VET, XLM, BTC and ADA.

Disclaimer: This information should not be interpreted as an endorsement of cryptocurrency or any specific provider, service or offering. It is not a recommendation to trade. Cryptocurrencies are speculative, complex and involve significant risks – they are highly volatile and sensitive to secondary activity. Performance is unpredictable and past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Consider your own circumstances, and obtain your own advice, before relying on this information. You should also verify the nature of any product or service (including its legal status and relevant regulatory requirements) and consult the relevant Regulators' websites before making any decision. Finder, or the author, may have holdings in the cryptocurrencies discussed.

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