5 or 6 years to crypto mass adoption, predicts Mike Novogratz
First regulatory and technical infrastructure, then familiarity and then uptake.
Mike Novogratz, the founder of the Galaxy Digital cryptocurrency investment firm who transitioned from Wall Street to cryptocurrency before it was cool, predicted five or six years until blockchain and cryptocurrency mass adoption while speaking at the Beyond Blocks conference in South Korea.
The estimate is based on how long it will take for crypto infrastructure, including regulations, to develop to a satisfactory level and for institutions to start moving into the space in large numbers.
He sees the institutional interest as a driving force behind adoption, but at the same time notes that at the end of the day cryptocurrency is focused on individuals and that reliable regulation is needed to protect retail speculators as they get involved.
"You won't see mass adoption until the user experience does not feel like something new and that is still five to six years away," he said.
The first stepping stone might be increased institutional interest, which is already well underway as banks, including Novogratz's former employer Goldman Sachs, start pushing at the existing limits of the space.
"Think about how institutional investors operate. It’s hard to tell your boss 'I have money in places you have never heard of.' You need a trusted, name custodian — a Japanese bank or HSBC or ICE or Goldman Sachs — to allow institutional investors to feel comfortable."
"The bet I am making is that sometime in the next two to three years, a herd of institutions will come running into this space. Without that, we will be running in circles."
Businesses themselves are already keenly examining the area though, he notes – a sign of previous efforts bearing fruit.
"The mission was to convert institutional investors to crypto. Now when I meet a CEO or CIO, I am surprised at how much they know. Most have not taken the first step in participating, but they are doing a lot of work."
Disclosure: At the time of writing the author holds ETH, IOTA, ICX, VET, XLM, BTC, ADA