What will happen to interest rates in 2017?

Adam Smith 3 January 2017 NEWS

RBA 2016 in review

The Reserve Bank could put an end to the "new normal" of low rates.

The forecast for interest rates in 2017 has changed drastically since 2016. While last year started with the near-certainty that rock-bottom rates were here to stay, this year begins with lenders having already hiked rates and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tipped to follow suit.

Low interest rates have been the “new norm” for some time now. The RBA began its current easing cycle all the way back in November 2011. Over the course of the last five years, the RBA has dropped the cash rate from 4.75% all the way to its current 1.50%.

Lenders have largely followed suit, with borrowing rates hitting record lows. But all the while lenders have cut rates, they have also been vocal about the increasing gulf between their funding costs and the Reserve Bank cash rate.

What happened last year

Coming into 2016, the Reserve Bank had maintained a “wait and see” approach for some time. Inflation remained low, but so did unemployment. The housing market had continued booming, and the Reserve worried further rate cuts could cause it to overheat.

At the outset of the year, 56% of the experts surveyed in finder.com.au’s Monthly RBA Survey expected the official cash rate to remain untouched at 2.00% for the duration of 2016. Only 34% foresaw a rate cut during the course of the year, with 52% tipping a rise in 2017.

But the Reserve Bank had some surprises in store for experts. In May, the Bank trimmed the official cash rate to 1.75%. This was in spite of 96% of experts in finder.com.au’s survey forecasting a rate hold. Economists and pundits were certain the RBA would maintain its “wait and see” approach, and hold fire until the Federal Budget. The RBA had other plans.

Home loan rate in review 2016

Along with the Reserve Bank cut came a wave of cuts from lenders, albeit at a slow pace. Lenders seemed to use the opportunity to take a stand on their funding costs. Many failed to pass on the RBA’s full 25 basis point cut. While three of the four major banks did pass on the full cut (ANZ cut by only 19 basis points), they took their time doing so. The big four waited an average of 20 days before passing on rate cuts.

When the lenders did pass on cuts, they did so with a warning: their funding costs were no longer directly tied to the RBA cash rate, so borrowers could no longer expect them to move in lock-step with the Reserve.

For the Reserve Bank’s part, it played to economists’ expectations when it chose to cut rates again in August. It moved on rates after figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed the lowest annual inflation rate in more than 17 years.

What 2017 could hold

Lenders stood their ground following August's rate cut, with many passing along half or less of the RBA’s 25 basis point reduction. The major banks averaged just an 11.75 basis point cut, and took between 10 and 21 days to make their changes.

The signal lenders sent in August was an important one. They would willingly suffer consumer ire in order to chart their own course on rates. This mindset was on full display following the final RBA meeting of the year. In spite of the RBA holding rates steady, lenders began to shift their rates upward.

The rate changes began with moves on fixed rates. This soon led to rate hikes for investor variable rates. Finally, lenders began to move variable rates upward for owner-occupiers.

The usual pattern for interest rates has been one of the RBA setting the course and lenders following suit. In 2017, it's possible these roles could be reversed. Lenders have already moved on rates, and 37% of experts surveyed by finder.com.au believe the RBA will follow suit within the next two years.

While the year began with economists predicting an RBA easing cycle continuing into the foreseeable future, most experts now believe the RBA’s next move will be up. After more than five years of easing, the Reserve Bank is tipped to begin tightening the official cash rate once again in 2017 or 2018.

At the outset of 2016, record-low interest rates appeared to the “new normal”. The year ahead appears to be anything but.

Compare today's rates below

Rates last updated November 20th, 2018
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Loan purpose
Offset account
Loan type
Repayment type
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Name Product Interest Rate (p.a.) Comp Rate^ (p.a.) Application Fee Ongoing Fees Max LVR Monthly Payment Short Description
3.59%
3.59%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Enjoy flexible repayments, a redraw facility and the ability to split your loan. Plus, pay no application or ongoing fees.
3.59%
3.61%
$0
$0 p.a.
90%
Get a low interest rate loan with no ongoing fees. Plus you can make extra repayments and free redraw online. Available with just a 10% deposit.
3.87%
3.91%
$600
$0 p.a.
95%
A home loan with no ongoing fee and a redraw facility that you can borrow up to 95% LVR.
3.64%
3.66%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
A simple mortgage with a competitive interest rate and no application or monthly fees. Borrow up to $2000000 from a convenient online lender.
3.57%
3.58%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Get a very low interest rate and avoid big fees. Apply online for full approval in under 30 minutes and add a 100% offset account for $10 a month.
3.54%
3.58%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Get a competitive rate, save on fees and access a 100% offset account plus redraw facility. $900 cashback offer.
3.68%
3.70%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
This loan offers a competitive variable rate and a 100% offset account to help save you on interest repayments.
3.75%
3.80%
$600
$0 p.a.
90%
Competitive variable rate mortgage with a partial offset account. Get this loan with a 10% deposit.
3.49%
4.57%
$0
$395 p.a.
90%
Loans over $150000 get a discount off an already low fixed rate. Available for NSW, QLD and ACT residents only.
3.54%
3.57%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
A competitive variable essentials interest rate product aimed at refinancers looking to switch to a lower rate.
3.68%
3.82%
$0
$10 monthly ($120 p.a.)
80%
Get double Velocity Frequent Flyer Points with this mortgage to spend on flights and more (for a limited time, subject to eligibility requirements). Redraw facility available on this variable rate home loan. Competitive interest rate.
3.59%
4.00%
$845
$350 p.a.
90%
Get a low variable interest rate and buy a property with just a 10% deposit. 100% offset account attached.
3.88%
3.89%
$0
$0 p.a.
90%
Save on interest with a free 100% offset account and buy your property with just a 10% deposit.
3.69%
4.86%
$0
$395 p.a.
90%
Special discounted rate for first home buyers. Start your home buying journey with 2 years of fixed repayments at a competitive rate plus package discounts. Available with a 10% deposit.
3.69%
4.12%
$0
$395 p.a.
80%
Unlock a range of savings with this competitive package home loan offer. Offset account and redraw facility included.
3.64%
3.64%
$0
$0 p.a.
70%
A low interest rate home loan with no application or ongoing fees.
3.68%
3.70%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
A competitive variable rate mortgage for owner occupiers that comes with a no fee debit card with a $5,000 limit.
3.79%
3.82%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
An essentials variable investor mortgage with a high borrowing amount so you can fund a large purchase.
3.75%
3.75%
$0
$0 p.a.
70%
A simple mortgage with no application or ongoing fees that has extra repayments plus split and redraw options. Requires a 30% deposit.
3.67%
3.72%
$600
$0 p.a.
80%
Family guarantee option available. Enjoy flexible repayments and a low minimum loan amount.
3.75%
4.72%
$0
$299 p.a.
95%
Owner-occupiers can enjoy a discounted fixed rate, a rate lock feature and the ability to make additional repayments.
3.64%
3.78%
$0
$10 monthly ($120 p.a.)
80%
Earn double Velocity Frequent Flyer Points on your mortgage for a limited time (subject to eligibility requirements). Plus, access a 100% offset account to save on interest.
3.74%
4.13%
$0
$349 p.a.
90%
Get a sharp rate plus package discounts and a 100% offset account.
3.79%
3.80%
$0
$0 p.a.
90%
Get one free online redraw per month and pay no ongoing fees. Application fees are waived for loans above $150,000. Plus $1,500 cashback offer for eligible refinancers.
3.84%
3.85%
$0
$0 p.a.
70%
Keep your LVR at 70% or below and enjoy a special discounted rate. Also, pay no application or ongoing fees.
3.64%
3.59%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Fast, 100% online application process. Very limited fees. Optional offset account (with fee).
3.79%
3.79%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Access an offset account and pay no application or ongoing fees on this special variable rate for owner-occupiers.
3.80%
3.80%
$0
$0 p.a.
70%
Earn tens of thousands of Qantas Points to spend on flights, hotels and more with this variable owner occupier mortgage. Competitive variable rate mortgage that requires a 30% deposit.
3.59%
3.99%
$600
$395 p.a.
95%
Get interest rate discounts and waived fees on this package loan with a 100% offset account.
3.71%
3.71%
$0
$0 p.a.
70%
A variable rate home loan that has a lot of flexible features. This loan has a 100% offset account.
3.72%
3.74%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Save on interest by taking advantage of a 100% offset account along with no ongoing fees or application fees.
3.85%
3.85%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Low fee loan with extra repayments. Pay no application and ongoing fees and take advantage of split and redraw options.
3.83%
4.89%
$0
$395 p.a.
80%
A flexible 3 year fixed rate loan you can use to buy your own home.
3.64%
3.64%
$0
$0 p.a.
70%
A basic variable home loan that offers a competitive interest rate with no application fees and no ongoing fees.
3.84%
3.84%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Pay no application or ongoing fees and get access to a free redraw facility with this innovative online lender.
3.87%
3.91%
$0
$10 monthly ($120 p.a.)
90%
Get Velocity Frequent Flyer Points at settlement, monthly and every three years, plus the option to make up to $10,000 a year in extra repayments.
3.59%
4.14%
$395
$0 p.a.
80%
A one year fixed rate offer with no ongoing bank fees.
3.84%
4.22%
$345
$0 p.a.
80%
Flexible, competitive variable rate that has flexible repayments, split and redraw facilities.
3.85%
4.69%
$0
$0 p.a.
90%
A package home loan with a sharp fixed rate and a 10% deposit option for low deposit borrowers.
3.70%
3.90%
$0
$0 p.a.
70%
Enjoy all the benefits of the Basic Home Loan and take advantage of an offset account.
3.85%
4.18%
$500
$0 p.a.
95%
Apply for Easy Street fixed rate home loans and get a competitive loan with a fixed interest rate.
3.74%
3.74%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
A basic owner-occupier home loan with a low variable rate that requires a 20% deposit.
3.89%
4.27%
$0
$395 p.a.
80%
New borrowers or refinancers can get a discounted rate with this package loan.
3.59%
3.58%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Apply online and get fast approval for this fixed rate, low-fee loan with redraw facilities. Add a 100% offset account for a small fee.
3.99%
4.13%
$0
$10 monthly ($120 p.a.)
80%
A competitive variable rate home loan with no application fee.
3.62%
3.62%
$0
$0 p.a.
95%
A low deposit mortgage with a competitive rate and plenty of flexibility. QLD residents only. Eligible borrowers can get a 15% discount on home and contents insurance for the life of their loan.
3.84%
3.82%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
A fixed rate loan with free redraws, few ongoing fees. Apply online with a fast approval process.
3.89%
3.94%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Pay no application or ongoing fee and borrow up to 80% LVR.
3.73%
3.87%
$0
$10 monthly ($120 p.a.)
80%
Borrow up to $500000 and earn Velocity Frequent Flyer Points (terms and conditions apply).
3.75%
4.00%
$0
$248 p.a.
70%
Borrowers with a 30% deposit can get this competitive rate. Cut down on interest costs with a 100% offset account.
3.69%
4.75%
$0
$395 p.a.
90%
Enjoy a competitive rate with no application fee for this package loan.
3.79%
4.87%
$0
$395 p.a.
95%
Low deposit home loan. Enjoy flexible repayment options while paying limited fees.
3.74%
3.74%
$0
$0 p.a.
110%
Pay no deposit or LMI and get a discounted rate with this family pledge loan. Requires a family member to act as guarantor. NSW, Qld and ACT only.
3.81%
3.81%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
A home loan with a competitive rate and plenty of handy features. This product comes with a 100% offset account.
4.04%
4.07%
$0
$0 p.a.
90%
For a limited time, pay no application or settlement fees. You can also take advantage of a free redraw facility.
3.97%
3.99%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Package your owner occupied loan with investment loan and receive a discounted investment rate. 100% offset account included.
3.69%
4.08%
$0
$349 p.a.
90%
Package your loan with other AMP products and save on rates and fees.
3.93%
3.94%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
A low-fee line of credit loan from an online lender. Unlock the equity in your home and make interest-only repayments with a competitive rate.
3.89%
3.91%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
This variable rate loan keeps the features simple and fees low. This loan is offered by a 100% online lender.
3.99%
5.35%
$600
$0 p.a.
90%
Competitive rates for fixed for 3 years with redraw facility.
3.99%
3.99%
$0
$0 p.a.
70%
Investors with a 30% deposit can get this low rate loan to fund their property portfolio. Take advantage of split and redraw facilities.
3.89%
3.94%
$0
$0 p.a.
90%
Borrow up to 90% of the value of the property you're buying, and pay no application fee.
4.13%
4.14%
$0
$0 p.a.
90%
Access a fee-free offset account and a special interest rate for investors.
4.18%
4.18%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Investors get a 100% offset account and pay no application or ongoing fees on this loan from an innovative online lender.
3.72%
3.72%
$0
$0 p.a.
90%
New customers can get a discounted variable rate and a fee-free redraw facility. NSW, QLD and ACT residents only.
3.94%
4.95%
$595
$0 p.a.
95%
Borrow up to 95% LVR of the value of the property you're buying and pay no application or ongoing fees.
3.74%
4.01%
$395
$0 p.a.
80%
A competitive fixed interest rate product with no ongoing bank fees.
3.70%
3.70%
$0
$0 p.a.
70%
Get a discount for keeping your LVR at $70% or below with this innovative online lender.
3.99%
4.86%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Access a fee-free 100% offset account and pay no application or ongoing fees.
3.99%
4.62%
$395
$0 p.a.
80%
Investors can enjoy flexible repayments and an easy application process with this pioneering online lender.
3.69%
4.54%
$0
$395 p.a.
90%
A fixed rate loan with a 100% offset account and the option to make additional repayments. Loans over $150000 receive a discounted rate. NSW, QLD and ACT residents only.
4.29%
4.26%
$0
$0 p.a.
95%
A competitive 3-year fixed rate loan with a high max insured LVR.
3.99%
3.99%
$0
$0 p.a.
80%
Get a discounted, low-fee investor loan from a convenient online lender. 20% deposit required.

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